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14 Season-Long Player Prop Bets: NFL Futures Odds & Picks

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As we ramp up for another exciting NFL season, the futures market presents some enticing opportunities. Today, we bring together our expert panel of analysts – Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, Derek Brown and Joe Pisapia – to break down the best NFL Futures player prop bets and predictions for the 2023 season.

They will share their picks and discuss why they’ve backed the likes of Joe Burrow, Najee Harris, and Ja’Marr Chase to lead the league in these categories.

Also featured are some intriguing over/under picks, including predictions for players like Garrett Wilson, Odell Beckham Jr., Dak Prescott, D’Andre Swift, and Deshaun Watson. Our experts share their predictions and delve into the reasoning behind their choices.

Best NFL Futures Player Prop Bets & Predictions

Here are the 2023 NFL Futures player prop bets that our featured analysts are making for QB, RB and WR.

Most Regular Season Passing Yards

ANALYST PLAYER ODDS Sportsbook
Erickson Joe Burrow 700 FD
Fitz Patrick Mahomes 500 DK
DBro Justin Herbert 700 DK
Joe Patrick Mahomes 450 FD

Only two QBs have ranked inside the top three in passing yards per game over the last two seasons: Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. Burrow actually finished second in passing yards per game last season (279.7) but finished 5th overall after playing one fewer game. Considering the Bengals posted the highest pass rate on early downs under neutral game script conditions (higher than KC at 65.6%), I believe Burrow has the best chance of dethroning Patrick Mahomes as the league leader in total passing yards. The passing league leader has played on a team that has ranked inside the top three in pass rate on early downs over the past three seasons (Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes).
– Andrew Erickson

Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards last season and has been a close second in two of his other four seasons as a starter, finishing 32 yards behind Ben Roethlisberger in 2018 and 83 yards behind Deshaun Watson in 2020. Mahomes has averaged 303 passing yards per game over his career. If he stays healthy all season, Mahomes is probably even money against the field in this category. There’s value to betting him at +500.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

After back-to-back finishes at second in passing yards over the last two years, Justin Herbert finally gets to the top of the heap in 2023. With a stocked skill depth chart and Kellen Moore at the controls, the sky is the limit for Herbert. Moore’s calling card is a fast-paced pass-heavy scheme that should propel Herbert to the number one spot.
– Derek Brown

Patrick Mahomes was the only QB to cross 5K yards last year, and he’s been the most prolific passer of this recent era. Despite not having a clear #1 WR, he still has Travis Kelce and the ability to spread the ball around to the open wide receivers. Joe Burrow is an intriguing second option at +700 at a smaller unit with a bigger return, but it would require 17 healthy games from Ja’Marr Chase.
– Joe Pisapia

Most Regular Season Total Rushing Yards

ANALYST PLAYER ODDS Sportsbook
Erickson Najee Harris 3000 FD
Fitz Najee Harris 3000 FD
DBro Nick Chubb 700 DK
Joe Nick Chubb 750 FD

As much as I’d love to just lock up my money with Nick Chubb as the rushing yards favorite, I cannot pass up on the 30-to-1 odds on Najee Harris. He is one of just five RBs that project for at least 250 carries per the FantasyPros consensus projections. He has the size to take on a massive workload at 232 pounds, and the Steelers have dramatically re-tooled their offensive line, which should improve his per-carry efficiency. In the second half of last season, Harris was pacing for nearly 1300 rushing yards with 5 games shouldering 20-plus carries.
– Andrew Erickson

Harris finished second in rushing attempts as a rookie in 2021 and was fifth last year. Fade the talk about backup Jaylen Warren cutting into Najee’s role; Najee is an established bellcow and will continue to be one. He’s averaged only 3.9 yards per carry over his first two seasons. but the Steelers have been plowing resources into their offensive line, and the upgrades should boost Najee’s efficiency. This is a generous price for a running back who’s averaged 17 carries a game since entering the league.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Volume and efficiency have been perennial hallmarks for Nick Chubb. Over the last two seasons, he’s third in rushing yards per game and fourth in carries. While the Browns will likely pass more in Deshaun Watson’s second season in Cleveland, Chubb will still be the engine of this offense. He’s finished third and second in rushing yards since 2021. This year he’s a lock for 300-plus carries as he takes home the rushing crown.
-Derek Brown

Nick Chubb is “the man” in the Browns’ backfield, and without a clear Robin to his Batman, Chubb should stand to once again challenge for the rushing title. A bounceback from Deshaun Watson would also mean more sustained drives, and that alone would contribute to Chubb’s chances of bringing home the rushing crown.
-Joe Pisapia

Most Regular Season Total Receiving Yards

ANALYST PLAYER ODDS Sportsbook
Erickson Calvin Ridley 6600 BetMGM
Fitz Cooper Kupp 1200 FD
DBro Tyreek Hill 900 DK
Joe Ja’Marr Chase 750 FD

The 66-1 longshot odds are too good to pass up here, folks. Calvin Ridley hasn’t played at an elite level since 2020 when he was averaging 91.6 receiving yards per game. He averaged 109 receiving yards per game when Julio Jones was out of the lineup. There are WRs with shorter listed odds than Ridley who just dream they could consistently post 90-plus receiving yards for any stretch of games. The Jaguars ranked sixth in early down pass rate in the second half of the season and boasted the 9th most passes per game. There’s enough passing volume in this offense for Ridley to go nuclear if he can recapture his 2020 form. Don’t be too quick to forget that before Cooper Kupp lead the NFL with 1,947 receiving yards at 28 years old, he had just one 1,000-yard season on his resume. Ridley’s lone 1,000-yard campaign also came at 26 years of age. He will be 29 in December.
-Andrew Erickson

Kupp blew away the field in this category in 2021 with 1,947 yards — 331 more than runner-up Justin Jefferson — and was on a 1,728-yard pace through eight games last season before sustaining a season-ending injury in Game 9. Kupp has little target competition in a Rams offense that figures to be presented with a lot of negative, pass-heavy game scripts. Kupp is a bargain at this price.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

All we need is Tua Tagovailoa to stay healthy for this to cash. Last year with Tagovailoa under center, Tyreek Hill averaged 108.3 receiving yards per game. That would have ranked first in the NFL. Over a full 17-game season, that would have culminated in 1,841 receiving yards which would have also led the NFL. If Tagovailoa is upright all year, Hill could hit 1,900 receiving yards.
-Derek Brown

With Justin Jefferson going back-to-back on this honor, I’m going to put my money on Ja’Marr Chase this season. The Bengals’ secondary lost some key pieces year over year, and they may find themselves more shootouts with a renewed Ravens offense and Deshaun Watson under center for a full season in Cleveland. With Joe Burrow, Chase has prolific numbers. It’s just a matter of time before better health allows us all to literally cash in on them.
-Joe Pisapia

NFL Futures Player Props: Over/Under

Player Prop Over / Under Andrew Derek Pat Joe Consensus
Garrett Wilson receiving yards 1125.5 Over Under Under Over Split
Odell Beckham Jr. receiving yards 580.5 Over Under Under Over Split
Dak Prescott passing yards 3950.5 Over Over Over Over Over
D’Andre Swift rushing yards 580.5 Under Under Under Under Under
Deshaun Watson passing yards 3500.5 Over Over Over Over Over

Garrett Wilson OVER 1,125.5 Receiving Yards

Garrett Wilson was pacing for nearly 1400 yards in games played with non-Zach Wilson QBs last season. He also finished with over 1,100 yards despite not being a full-time player till Week 8. Only way he doesn’t hit this number is if he gets hurt.
-Andrew Erickson

Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 580.5 Receiving Yards

Though I am not overly bullish on OBJ for fantasy purposes, this is a pretty low bar for him to pass at 580.5 receiving yards. Obviously, he has been far off this number the past two seasons, but he should be healthy enough to at least play a substantial role on the Ravens offense. If Olamide Zaccheaus could hit 533 receiving yards in the league’s worst passing offense, I think Beckham get right under 600 if he plays enough games.

Dak Prescott OVER 3,950.5 Passing Yards

Even with Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties, there’s no way I can see Dak Prescott falling below 4,000 passing yards in a season. Over his last two full seasons, he has yet to finish with less than 4,400 passing yards. Dallas will likely slow the pace down some, but they will still be an above-average passing rate team. This line is way too low.
-Derek Brown

D’Andre Swift UNDER 580.5 Rushing Yards

D’Andre Swift has surpassed 580.5 rushing yards just once in his three-year career. And it took a career-high 151 carries back in 2021. This line is also on Prizepicks.com at 599.5 rushing yards.
-Andrew Erickson

Deshaun Watson OVER 3,500.5 Passing Yards

It’s reasonable to think that Watson will be better than he was last season while scraping off the rust after a long hiatus, yet not quite as good as he was during his phenomenal early years with the Texans. He’s averaged 260.7 yards per game for his career — a number that bakes in last year’s struggles. Even if we knock him down to 250 yards a game and project him to miss a game, that works out to 4,000 yards. Take the over on a more modest 3,500-yard total.


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