2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Round Jalen Hurts is Drafted

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NFL Draft season is one of the most exciting times of the year, and the fervor has been magnified due to the lack of other sports during these turbulent times. NFL Draft props are often some of the most exciting propositions at this time of the year, and with no NBA Playoffs to speak of, there is much more focus on these betting vehicles than there would usually be. One of the most interesting draft props on the board is the round Jalen Hurts will be drafted in prop offered by numerous books including FanDuel. Jalen Hurts is one of the more talented, yet divisive prospects in this draft class, and as a result there is plus money offered on each and every round. Let’s take a look at the odds.

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2020 NFL Draft: Round Jalen Hurts is Drafted

Round 1 +1000
Round 2 +130
Round 3 +130
Round 4 +400
Round 5 +900
Round 6 +1100
Round 7 +1800

Jalen Hurts is a talented quarterback who looks like a first-round prospect if you just turn on his highlight package. He has a big arm, and playing outside of the SEC with talented Oklahoma wideouts like CeeDee Lamb made him look like a star. Remember this is the same offense that produced the last two number one overall picks in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. This suggests that Oklahoma’s offense is conducive to allowing their quarterbacks to shine. Hurts improved leaps and bounds from what we saw from him at Alabama, and was even the runner up to Joe Burrow in the final Heisman voting. 

Hurts is more than just a passer, as his legs are how he made his name for himself at Alabama. He is a power runner that can rip off chunk yardage plays when the play breaks down. Hurts had 3,851 passing yards and 32 passing touchdowns at 11.1 yards per attempt, and 1,298 rushing yards with another 20 touchdowns on the ground. He still has work to do as far as going through his progressions, and on anticipation throws, but the progress he made this past season gives reason for optimism. 

So why is one of 2019's best college quarterbacks the subject of so much debate? His stats are awesome, but it is his game tape that causes divisiveness. He is too prone to breaking the pocket and scrambling rather than letting plays develop, and has the aforementioned processing issues. He is an intelligent and tough quarterback who appears bound to make it in the NFL, but teams will question whether his talent is good enough to have to tailor an entire offensive scheme to maximize his skill set. Because of this, there is a debate as to which round he will be drafted in this year. Let's take a look at his possible landing spot in terms of round drafted. 

Round 1 (+1000)
Jalen Hurts has an outside chance at being drafted in the first round. The +1000 odds at FanDuel suggest that Hurts only has a 9.1 percent chance of being drafted on day one. That number is likely closer to 10 percent which means there is some minimal value in this line. 10 percent should be +900, but the juice here has likely moved due to action coming in on the other rounds. While most teams will not have him as a first-round pick, there may be a team who is willing to trade into the end of the first to secure the ever valuable fifth-year option. 

Round 2 (+130)
As the odds reflect, day two is the much more likely landing spot for Jalen Hurts. There is much less risk with drafting someone like Hurts in the second round. His current draft position over/under prop sits at 62.5 at FanDuel, but the juice is on the over (-124). The second round odds do not present true value, as the implied odds of a +130 line suggest a 43.5 percent chance that this prop is supposed to hit. The true number is likely closer to 30 percent at best.  With that being said, a team like the Chicago Bears has enough of a need at the position that they may decide to utilize one of their two second-round picks on the talented signal-caller. The line here should be closer to +233.

Round 3 (+130)
It would be an upset if Jalen Hurts lasted past the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The third round is where compensatory picks start, so teams will have the extra ammunition needed to take a chance on someone like Jalen Hurts. When it comes to the third round, most NFL teams with uncertain long term answers at the position should at least look Hurts' way if he is still on the board. As mentioned with round two, a +130 line implies a 43.5 percent chance of this prop hitting. This number is still a little too high but is the best value on the board. The odds here should be +150 at the lowest, as when the other rounds are taken into consideration, there is about a 40 percent chance of Jalen Hurts being drafted in the third round. Hurts will be seen as a value by most teams at this portion of the draft, and will be the best player available on multiple draft boards. 

Round 4 (+400), Round 5 (+900), Round 6 (+1100), Round 7 (+1800)
I have decided to combine all of the day three odds to one discussion. While there is a chance that Hurts falls to the fourth round simply because no team is willing to overhaul their entire system to maximize his strengths, the fourth round, and even the fifth round if he somehow lasts that long, are flier territory where teams would not mind taking a chance on someone with the upside of Hurts, even if he does not work out. 

Round six and sevens odds look great for a reason, there is little to no chance that he is still available that late. +1100 implies 8.3 percent odds, while +1800 implies 5.3 percent odds. These numbers are likely closer to five percent flat, which would mean a +1900 line for both rounds. The 20 percent chance associated with the +400 odds for round four seems to be right on the money and is the only line on the board with true value. Unfortunately, the odds and implied probability also means that there is a four in five chance that a bet on the fourth round would fail to click. The fifth round at 10 percent is set about right but seems to be a very unrealistic draft position for Jalen Hurts. 

As mentioned above, his draft position prop is listed at 62.5. This means him lasting until pick 147 (the first pick of the fifth round) is very unlikely to happen. While all of these rounds look appealing due to the impressive plus money, the lines have been set like that for a reason. If you are looking to hedge, consider partial unit action on round four. Otherwise, you would be better off with our suggestion below. 

Conclusion

As discussed, the only reasonable value on the board (draft projection plus implied odds) is Jalen Hurts being drafted in the third round. The odds are still a little off, but with round three being his most likely landing spot in terms of draft round, this is where bettors should start their analysis and evaluation of this prop. Personally, I think Jalen Hurts is worth a team trading into the back of the first for the fifth-year option, but the draft capital required to do so may not be something teams are willing to part with unless 2021 picks can be included in the deal. This draft class is just too deep to part with multiple picks for someone most NFL teams will feel may still be available in the third round. 

The second round is a distinct possibility for Hurts, especially if the Bears are the team that ends up selecting him, but the third round is indeed the most likely scenario. With plus money on every round, there are hedging opportunities to consider, but for those who want straight-up action, round two and round three are where your focus should be. Sticking to probability and projection, the third round is the prop iteration to pursue as a one unit play. 

The pick: Jalen Hurts drafted in round three (+130)

Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.