2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Tua Tagovailoa Draft Position

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The NFL offseason is moving toward the NFL Draft, which is just three weeks away. One of the central sources of intrigue in the draft is where Tua Tagovailoa will be drafted. The Alabama quarterback has endured two different injuries in college at Alabama, his 2019 injury being far more severe than his 2018 injury. Tagovailoa might be damaged goods in the eyes of some because of his injuries, but he still entered the draft this year. No player is surrounded by more drama in the draft than Tua, precisely because his landing spot is such a mystery.

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Will He Go In The Top Six?

There are three distinct positions on the draft board where Tua Tagovailoa could be picked, or at least, three positions that are more likely than others. He probably won't fall completely out of the first round just because his talent will be too tempting to at least one NFL team. Within the first round, there are three areas of the draft board where his name might be called.

The first area is in the top six. This is more precisely the No. 5 or No. 6 spot. The first four picks are largely spoken for. Cincinnati will pick Joe Burrow at No. 1. Chase Young should go to Washington at No. 2. Clemson's Isaiah Simmons and Ohio State's Jeffrey Okudah will probably go at No. 3 and No. 4 in some order. Assuming no trades happen, the first spot where Tua could reasonably be picked is at No. 5 where the Miami Dolphins pick. If the Dolphins pass on Tua at 5, the Los Angeles Chargers will be selecting at No. 6. Since the Chargers do not have a long-term answer at quarterback, with veteran Tyrod Taylor being the temporary number one quarterback, it makes sense for the Chargers to either go for a new starter this season (less likely), or to pick Tua with the thought process that they can groom him into the starter two seasons from now.

Will He Go In The Middle Of First Round?

If the Dolphins and Chargers do not take Tua in the top six, the next area of the draft is at 16 and 18 in the middle of the first round. That is if nobody decides to trade up and nab him.

At pick No. 18 is for the Dolphins, who have a ton of picks in this draft, could make the gamble that none of the other picks at 1-17 will take Tua. Miami could get Tua at 18 instead of at No. 5, saving some money but still ending up with a player the Dolphins wanted. The danger for Miami is that Atlanta - needing a new quarterback of the future once Matt Ryan retires - could take Tua at No. 16 and take a few years for Tua to learn the offense.

This scenario is only likely if the "damaged goods" theme is really prominent on draft day and he surprisingly tumbles as a result.

Will He Go Late First Round?

If Miami and Atlanta pass on Tua midway through the first round, he could go late in the first round. New England might need the next great quarterback after Tom Brady at pick No. 23 and he probably won't fall past them in a worst-case scenario.

Tua Tagovailoa Draft Position

Over 2.5: -303 at BetMGM
Under 2.5: +220 at BetMGM

To me, the over is the easy bet here. The Washington Redskins are not going to take Tagovailoa as they have Dwayne Haskins, a first-round pick from last season, and Kyle Allen, a player they traded for his offseason. What we're really being asked here is will the Redskins trade down? What's interesting is that while they have many holes on the roster, they don't have a huge need for a pass rusher. Chase Young is viewed as particularly special and a coach like Ron Rivera will probably find a way to get Montez Sweat, Ryan Kerrigan and Chase Young on the field together. Young is viewed as the top player in the draft by many and the Redskins could be nabbing him at two.

The other key here is that if someone does trade up to No. 2, it would be for Chase Young, in my opinion. I don't see a scenario where Young is drafted after Tagovailoa. That being the case, over is the best bet here. Tua will go third or later.

Pick: Over 2.5

Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.