2022 Alamo Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Thursday (Texas vs. Washington)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Alamo Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Alamo Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Thursday (Texas vs. Washington)
San Antonio, TX | Thursday, December 29 | 8:00 PM
Texas (-3.5) vs. Washington | Total: 67.5
ATL: Pick ‘em | ATT: 63.5
Texas
QB Hudson Card (Transfer portal)
RB Bijan Robinson (Opt-out)
RB Roschon Johnson (Opt-out)
WR Troy Omeire (Transfer portal)
WR ​​Isaiah Neyor (Injury)
WR Jaden Alexis (Injury)
TE Jahleel Billingsley (Opt-out)
OG Logan Parr (Transfer portal)
OT Andrej Karic (Transfer portal)
EDGE DJ Harris (Transfer portal)
EDGE Prince Dorbah (Transfer portal)
EDGE Devin Richardson (Transfer portal)
LB DeMarvion Overshown (Opt-out)
CB Jamier Johnson (Transfer portal)
S JD Coffey III (Transfer portal)
Texas lost RBs Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson, and LB DeMarvion Overshown to NFL Draft opt-outs. With that, Texas goes from arguably the best running back room in America to a very inexperienced one. RB Robinson led the nation in yards from scrimmage with 1,894. He rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 TD in 2022.
This puts more pressure on QB Quinn Ewers to succeed through the air against Washington – fortunately, the Huskies’ secondary is terrible. Redshirt freshman RB Jonathon Brooks is expected to be RB1 against the Huskies. True freshman RB Jaydon Blue, a top-60 overall recruit, will likely mix in behind him.
WR Neyor was a celebrated transfer from Wyoming who was lost for the season in summer camp with a knee injury. WR Alexis, a backup, is also out for the season with a knee injury. WR Omeire didn’t see the field much. OG Parr and OT Karic were also backups.
LB Overshown logged 95 tackles and four sacks this fall. And for whatever it’s worth, his backups struggled when Overshown was suspended for the first half of the Texas Tech game for targeting.
It’s also worth noting that LB Overshown and RB Johnson were key special team pieces for the Longhorns, who have contributed on numerous units for years. Inexperienced backups on those units will replace both.
TE Billingsley is an odd opt-out and an odder NFL Draft early-declaree. Despite having two years of eligibility remaining and serving a six-game suspension to begin the season and as Ja’Tavion Sanders’ backup to conclude it, Billingsley forwent the opportunity to portal to a better opportunity. He only had three catches for 38 yards as a Longhorn.
This came after Billingsley fell out of favor with Alabama HC Nick Saban following 37 catches with the Ride. Texas’ other opt-outs really hurt… Billingsley, to be blunt, doesn’t matter. Sanders is the better in-game option, and Gunnar Helm and Juan Davis are fine off-the-bench options.
Texas is awaiting word on multiple other players still contemplating their futures. That group includes ILB Jaylan Ford, WR Jordan Whittington, DL Moro Ojomo, and DL Keondre Coburn. Per a report, those four are still practicing with the team.
Washington
WR Junior Alexander (Transfer portal)
TE Jack Westover (Injury)
DT Kuao Peihopa (Transfer portal)
S Cameron Williams (Transfer portal)
QB Michael Penix Jr. announced he will play in this game and return to school next year. Penix was emphatic about playing because he’s never played in a bowl.
That was telling. So was this: Washington’s roster has a grand total of zero opt-outs for this game.
TE Westover, a starter, is questionable with a concussion. It’s not a huge downgrade to TE Devin Culp – whom Westover split snaps with this fall – if Westover can’t go.
The three others listed above played limited snaps off the bench during the regular season.
Handicap
Very impressive Year 1 turnaround job by Washington HC Kalen DeBoer. He immediately remade a pitiful Huskies offense into a powerful aerial show.
Washington throws at one of the top-10 pass-happiest rates in all the nation, and the Huskies are very good at what they do, ranking No. 4 in passing success rate, No. 3 in passing efficiency, and No. 24 in completion rate.
Texas’ defense does not match up well. During the regular season, the Longhorns had a very strong run defense. But the pass defense never caught up. Texas’ pass defense ranks No. 72 in success rate, No. 66 in passing efficiency, and No. 99 in completion percentage against.
Washington profiles to do what it wants to do on offense. Texas’ opt-outs don’t help, there. But the Longhorns’ opt-outs on offense really hurt Texas’ chances here.
The formerly-powerful Texas running back room has been chopped considerably down to size. The Longhorns need QB Quinn Ewers to go ballistic through the air to win this game. That’s certainly possible against a UW pass defense that ranks a rancid No. 93 in success rate and No. 80 in explosion.
But Ewers was up and down during the regular season, and Texas won’t be able to afford many punts or turnovers with the points I’m expecting UW to put up. Texas’ passing offense is also more efficient (No. 24) than explosive (No. 64), meaning Ewers will have to put the ball in the air more to advance it, increasing the odds of an eventual turnover or two.
The motivated Huskies win this game outright.
The pick: Washington +3.5
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