2022 Arizona Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (Ohio vs. Wyoming)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Arizona Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Arizona Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (Ohio vs. Wyoming)
Tucson, AZ | Friday, December 30 | 3:30 PM
Ohio (-1.5) vs. Wyoming | Total: 42.5
ATL: Ohio -0.1 | ATT: 40
Ohio
QB Kurtis Rourke (Injury)
RB O’Shaan Allison (Injury)
QB Rourke, PFF's highest-graded quarterback this season (92.0) and the MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is out for the year after suffering a torn ACL and meniscus on Nov. 15 against Ball State.
QB2 CJ Harris, who started the last two games, posting a 59.0 PFF grade in six appearances total, will draw another start. This is obviously a massive downgrade.
RB Allison was expected to assume a much larger role in 2022, but he was lost for the season right before it began with a shoulder injury.
Wyoming
RB Titus Swen (Opt-out/Dismissed)
RB Joey Braasch (Transfer portal)
RB Dawaiian McNeely (Injury)
RB D.Q. James (Injury)
WR Joshua Cobbs (Transfer portal)
DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho (Transfer portal)
CB Keonte Glinton (Transfer portal)
CB Cam Stone (Transfer portal)
The run-first Cowboys are in a pickle at the running back position. RB1 Swen is the biggest loss. He ran for 1,039 yards and eight TD this fall. He was dismissed from the team right after the finale against Fresno State. Swen originally entered the portal but reversed-course and said he would declare for the NFL Draft.
But not only is the bell-cow runner out for this game but so are his top-three backups. RB Braasch transferred, and RB McNeely and RB James are expected to miss the game with injuries.
WR Cobbs was the team's leading receiver, DE Omotosho was No. 3 in sacks, and CB Stone led the team in interceptions. CB Glinton was a starter before being lost to an injury earlier this season. He's now moving on in the portal.
Handicap
As far as the side handicap, let me put it this way: It was my least-confident game in the confidence pools before the bowls started, and my feelings haven't changed any.
With Ohio, you have a team that plays bad defense (No. 95 SP+) and bad special teams (No. 102 SP+) that was able to overcome that and any talent deficiencies on offense through the play of star QB Kurtis Rourke (No. 61 SP+ offense). But Rourke is now out for the season.
With Wyoming, you have a toothless run-first offense (No. 123 SP+) that played solid defense (No. 62 SP+) and special teams (No. 48 SP+). But the Cowboys - who have a top-15 national run rate - are down to their fifth-string running back, and they're also out their top WR. And that solid defense? It'll be missing its best pass-rusher and both starting corners.
My system calls this game a pick 'em. The market is close to that. I ever-so-slightly lean Wyoming but can't make my way to backing them. The far cleaner handicap here is on the under.
Wyoming's defense lost three crucial pass-defense pieces - but its run defense remains more-or-less intact, and that's good news because while Ohio QB2 CJ Harris can't throw, he can run a bit.
Meanwhile, Wyoming's horrible offense is somehow going to be by degrees worse in this bowl. The Cowboys still need to run - especially with WR Cobbs out - but they have precious few bodies left in the RB room and no tangible game experience.
Wyoming HC Craig Bohl is a master game planner, part of the reason he is 11-3 ATS career in bowls. He knows the Cowboys’ path to winning this game is turning it into a rock fight and winning an ugly, low-scoring game.
The Cowboys know how to do that, with five-straight games going under to conclude the regular season. As for Ohio, the Bobcats scored only seven points in the MAC title game against Toledo with Rourke out. If Wyoming's defense remains solid without the three departed starters, the Bobcats will flub around with the ball here, too.
The pick: Under 42.5
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