2022 BMW Championship: Best Long-Shot Odds & Picks
With the FedEx St. Jude Championship in the rearview mirror, we look forward to the second round of the FedEx playoffs. This week, we have the BMW Championship in Wilmington, Delaware.
This year, Wilmington Country Club will host this event. Wilmington Country Club is a par 71, 7,534-yard track designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. and re-done by Andrew Green in 2021 following damage done by a tornado.
Since the course has been re-worked, an event has not been played on it. Therefore, we will focus on previous success and metrics across the board to help narrow down our best bets.
At the end of the day, the course should be similar to how it was prior to the renovation, which means that strong iron players have the best chance of succeeding. Below, I will give my best longshot to win the 2022 BMW Championship.
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2022 BMW Championship: Best Long-Shot Odds & Picks
At 150/1, Adam Hadwin is worth taking a flyer on to capture his second career TOUR victory. Entering this week in 61st place on the FedEx rankings and 81st in the OWGR, Hadwin will look for a strong performance to give him a shot at playing in next week’s TOUR Championship.
We are utilizing this opportunity to buy low on Hadwin due to the fact that he has failed to crack the top 35 in each of his last four tournaments. Because of this trend, we are getting an over-adjusted number on a guy who should not be the same price as golfers like Brendan Steele, Taylor Moore, and Alex Smalley.
On TOUR this season, Hadwin ranks 53rd in SG: Approach-the-Green, 16th in SG: Around-the-Green, 42nd in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 50th in GIR%. We are also getting a generous number on Hadwin because this is an obviously loaded field.
However, Hadwin has proven multiple times this season that he can compete with the best golfers in the world when his game is on. This is evidenced by Hadwin’s ninth-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship and seventh-place finish at the U.S. Open.
At a course where strong iron players should succeed, Hadwin could have another one of these strong tournaments. Can he get over the hump and actually win? Probably not, but at 150/1, It certainly is worth a sprinkle.
Other Outright Winner Plays:
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.