Top 7 Odds & Picks for 2022 BMW Championship
Let’s check out our top odds and picks for the 2022 BMW Championship.
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Top 20 Finish: Max Homa (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Wells Fargo Championship winner this year Max Homa has turned into one of the best players on Tour off the tee over the past few months, improving each of the past eight weeks in SG: OTT. A course that compares well to the Wilmington Country Club, which no player in this event other than Justin Thomas (amateur event in 2013) has played, is TPC Potomac; home of the Wells Fargo Championship.
Finishing T42 last week in the St. Jude’s, Homa came one step closer to his first top 35 in a FedEx playoff event, which I think we see this week, but even better. With 13 top 25s on Tour this season, WCC’s distance should play right into Homa’s strong suit, landing him firmly inside the top 25 come Sunday afternoon.
Top 10 Finish: Matthew Fitzpatrick (+140 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
I don’t remember any major champions in the same season flying as under the radar as 27-year-old Matt Fitzpatrick is in these playoffs. Since his US Open victory two months ago, Fitzpatrick has rattled off a T6, T21, and T5, shooting 68 or better in all four rounds last week at the St. Jude Championship.
In fact, last week in the St. Jude, Fitzpatrick was #1 in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Scrambling, two metrics that will be critical for success here in Wilmington. It’s also worth noting that Fitzpatrick currently ranks #7 on the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, #2 in SG: Around-the-Green, and #1 on Tour in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total. He now enters a week with no cut, with success here meaning a lower start in next week’s event where the #1 ranked player will start at -10, cascading down through the top 10 players in the rankings.
Currently, #12 in the FedEx Cup rankings, a high finish here for Fitzpatrick will place him firmly in the top 10 ahead of next week’s Tour Championship, which I think we see from the young Englishman.
Outright Winner: Max Homa (+3500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
With nothing to go off of as far as course history, we start to look at courses that compare to Wilmington CC, and TPC Potomac outside of Washington, DC comes to the top of the list. A course Homa won at just a few months ago.
Coming into week #29 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, Homa has climbed up the rankings in that metric each week over the past few weeks as his distance off the tee continues to improve the longer he’s been steady on Tour. With one of the most consistent drives on Tour, Homa should be able to use them to his advantage this week at a course that demands it.
Still looking for his first top 35 in a FedEx playoffs event, Homa took one step closer last week with a T42 at the St. Judes, and I think we see him in contention come Sunday in Delaware.
2022 BMW Championship: Best Long-Shot Odds & Picks
At 150/1, Adam Hadwin is worth taking a flyer on to capture his second career TOUR victory. Entering this week in 61st place on the FedEx rankings and 81st in the OWGR, Hadwin will look for a strong performance to give him a shot at playing in next week’s TOUR Championship.
We are utilizing this opportunity to buy low on Hadwin due to the fact that he has failed to crack the top 35 in each of his last four tournaments. Because of this trend, we are getting an over-adjusted number on a guy who should not be the same price as golfers like Brendan Steele, Taylor Moore, and Alex Smalley.
On TOUR this season, Hadwin ranks 53rd in SG: Approach-the-Green, 16th in SG: Around-the-Green, 42nd in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 50th in GIR%. We are also getting a generous number on Hadwin because this is an obviously loaded field.
However, Hadwin has proven multiple times this season that he can compete with the best golfers in the world when his game is on. This is evidenced by Hadwin’s ninth-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship and seventh-place finish at the U.S. Open.
At a course where strong iron players should succeed, Hadwin could have another one of these strong tournaments. Can he get over the hump and actually win? Probably not, but at 150/1, It certainly is worth a sprinkle.
Other Outright Winner Plays:
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