2022 Cheez-It Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Thursday (Florida State vs. Oklahoma)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Cheez-It Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Cheez-It Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Thursday (Florida State vs. Oklahoma)
Orlando, FL |Thursday, December 29 | 4:30 PM
Florida State (-9.5) vs. Oklahoma | Total: 66
ATL: FSU -13.9 | ATT: 67
Oklahoma
QB Nick Evers (Transfer portal)
RB Eric Gray (Opt-out)
WR Theo Wease (Transfer portal)
WR Trevon West (Transfer portal)
TE Daniel Parker Jr. (Suspension)
OT Wanya Morris (Opt-out)
OT Anton Harrison (Opt-out)
DT Jalen Redmond (Opt-out)
LB Clayton Smith (Transfer portal)
LB Shane Whitter (Injury)
CB Joshua Eaton (Transfer portal)
CB Kendall Dennis (Transfer portal)
RB Gray was the Sooners’ bell-cow running back. He was one of the best backs in America this year. Gray’s 90.6 PFF grade was in elite territory. The platoon of RBs Jovantae Barnes and Marcus Major is a huge downgrade.
Speaking of huge downgrades, OT Harrison and OT Morris, the team’s starting tackles, are also out the door. Each was solidly an above-average Power 5 starter. Harrison was named to the All-Big 12 First-Team this season. It’s fair to be concerned about Oklahoma’s fill-in offensive line without the Sooners’ stellar bookend duo.
WR Wease had 19 catches. TE Parker Jr., a half-timer, is on an indefinite suspension. DT Redmond led the team in snaps among interior defensive linemen during the regular season – but he’s more a worker bee than a star.
LB Whittier, a little-used backup, is out for the season with a shoulder injury. CBs Eaton and Dennis also didn’t see the field much in the fall.
Florida State
WR Winston Wright Jr. (Injury)
WR Darion Williamson (Injury)
OT Lloyd Willis (Transfer portal)
DT Shambre Jackson (Transfer portal)
EDGE George Wilson Jr. (Transfer portal)
LB Stephen Dix Jr. (Injury)
CB Sam McCall (Transfer portal)
FSU QB Jordan Travis announced he will return next season. In addition to Travis, EDGE Jared Verse and S Jammie Robinson announced they would play in the bowl game. The upshot for the rest of the list: Very, very few useable pieces from the fall will be inactive for the bowl.
WR Wright Jr. missed the season with a leg injury suffered in a car accident. Wright will not play in this game, but he’s already announced he will return to school next year. WR Williamson was knocked out for the season in September. OT Willis was a little-used backup. LB Dix Jr. is out for the year with a shoulder injury. DT Jackson and EDGE Wilson Jr. scarcely saw the field.
WR Keyshawn Helton, LB Amari Gainer, and LB/S Sydney Williams – a trio of reserves – are all in the transfer portal but are still practicing with FSU and have said they intend to play. All played 80 or fewer snaps this fall.
Handicap
Heading into bowl season, Florida State was on my “buy†list, and Oklahoma was on my “sell†list. Not only did they get paired up against each other, but OU was hit significantly harder by opt-outs – and the market still hasn’t caught up to that.
The Seminoles’ No. 35 SP+ offense has a devastating ground attack that ranks No. 8 in success rate and No. 19 in explosion. If you can’t stop it, the Seminoles move the chains at will and open up one-on-one downfield shots (No. 12 passing explosiveness).
This is why FSU’s offense ranks top-10 in both efficiency and explosion. To beat FSU, you must make them one-dimensional by stopping the run.
Oklahoma cannot and will not. The Sooners’ run defense ranked No. 78 in success rate, Np. 75 in explosion and No. 98 in opportunity rate. Oklahoma’s pass defense is no great shakes, either.
FSU will destroy OU’s No. 66 SP+ defense, in other words. On the other side of the ball, without OU RB Gray, the Sooners, who had a balanced offense during the fall, will need to skew even pass-heavier.
Unfortunately, FSU has a really good pass defense. And the deep shots that OU QB Dillon Gabriel bailed the Sooners out with during the fall aren’t going to be there. While the Sooners rank No. 10 in passing explosion, FSU ranks No. 7 defensively in the same metric.
Seminoles in a route.
The pick: FSU -9.5
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