2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MAC
In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question - i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.
Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the MAC.
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Independents
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Sun Belt
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MAC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MWC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: CUSA
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: AAC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 10
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 12
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: SEC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Pac 12
Toledo Rockets
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 51 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Long Island | Toledo | Sat, Sept 3 | -33 | 1 |
UMass | Toledo | Sat, Sept 10 | -29.5 | 1 |
Toledo | Ohio State | Sat, Sep 17 | 30.5 | 0 |
Toledo | San Diego State | Sat, Sep 24 | -6 | 0.707 |
Central Michigan | Toledo | Sat, Oct 1 | -12 | 0.885 |
Toledo | Northern Illinois | Sat, Oct 8 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
Kent State | Toledo | Sat, Oct 15 | -20.5 | 1 |
Toledo | Buffalo | Sat, Oct 22 | -11 | 0.871 |
Toledo | Eastern Michigan | Sat, Oct 29 | -11 | 0.871 |
Ball State | Toledo | Tue, Nov 8 | -23.5 | 1 |
Bowling Green | Toledo | Tue, Nov 15 | -21 | 1 |
Toledo | Western Michigan | Fri, Nov 25 | -12 | 0.885 |
In the two seasons after HC Jason Candle took over for Matt Campbell, the Rockets went 9-4 and 11-3. But since 2018, Toledo has regressed to 7-6, 6-6, 4-2 (COVID-shortened 2020), and 7-6. This is the year youâre going to get a referendum on Candle. And spoiler alert: I think the Rockets are about to turn back the clock to their double-digit win heyday.
The offense loses star RB Bryant Koback (UDFA Vikings) but returns most everyone else, seven starters in all. That includes sophomore dual-threat QB Dequan Finn, who took over the starting gig in Week 7 and posted an 18/2 TD/INT ratio. RB Peny Boone, a former hyped recruit for Maryland, is the leader in the clubhouse for Kobackâs old bell-cow role. The defense is going to be one of the G5âs best. Eight starters return from a unit that allowed just 21.8 PPG last season, and former Ohio State top-200 overall recruit LB Dallas Gant joins the party.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 10
- Las Vegas win total: 7.5
- Thorâs bet: OVER
Not only is this set up to be Candleâs best team since 2016-2017, but the schedule sets up nicely. Toledo is going to lose at Ohio State. But ATL favors the Rockets by at least 6.5-points in the other 11 games! Thereâs no other way to put this: Toledoâs win total is short. My numbers have Toledo as double-digit favorites in nine games. This number gives the Rockets leeway to lose to Ohio State, lose to both teams ATL has Toledo as single-digit favorites over, and lose one of the games ATL sees it as a double-digit favorite in and still go OVER. One of my favorite bets on the entire board this summer.
Akron Zips
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 125 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
St. Francis (PA) | Akron | Thu, Sep 1 | -9.5 | 0.811 |
Akron | Michigan State | Sat, Sep 10 | 34 | 0 |
Akron | Tennessee | Sat, Sep 17 | 32 | 0 |
Akron | Liberty | Sat, Sep 24 | 19 | 0 |
Bowling Green | Akron | Sat, Oct 1 | 2.5 | 0.455 |
Akron | Ohio | Sat, Oct 8 | 5.5 | 0.311 |
Central Michigan | Akron | Sat, Oct 15 | 11.5 | 0.118 |
Akron | Kent State | Sat, Oct 22 | 6 | 0.294 |
Miami (OH) | Akron | Sat, Oct 29 | 12.5 | 0.113 |
Eastern Michigan | Akron | Tue, Nov 8 | 8.5 | 0.198 |
Akron | Buffalo | Sat, Nov 19 | 10.5 | 0.14 |
Akron | Northern Illinois | Sat, Nov 26 | 13.5 | 0.1 |
Akron, which hasnât appeared in a bowl game since 2005, hired former Penn State and Oregon OC (and Mississippi State HC) Joe Moorhead as HC. JoeMo actually got his FBS start at Akron, serving as a Zips assistant for five seasons before returning to his alma mater Fordham as HC. Moorhead is an offensive genius who revolutionized his take on the RPO offense while working with Saquon Barkley as the Nittany Lionsâ OC.
Heâs got a lot to work with on that side of the ball, with 6â6 dual-threat DJ Irons at QB and multi-faceted RB Jonzell Norrils. Eight starters return, which doesnât include Pitt WR Shocky Jaques-Louis, who will be peppered with targets this fall. Akron is going to improve on its No. 119 scoring offense from last fall. The big question for this team will be its defense, which ranked No. 125 in scoring last year. Eight starters also return on that side - and JoeMo likewise added transfers to augment the unit - but thereâs a long road ahead even to reach mediocrity.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 2.5
- Las Vegas win total: 2.5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
My adjusted number falls smack-dab on the Vegas number. After the opener against an FCS team, Akron has three brutal road games in a row - which will likely lead to a 1-3 start. My numbers project Akron as underdogs in all eight MAC games - but a single-digit underdog in half of them. This one could go either way.
Ball State Cardinals
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 122 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Ball State | Tennessee | Thu, Sep 1 | 31 | 0 |
Western Michigan | Ball State | Sat, Sep 10 | 4.5 | 0.327 |
Murray State | Ball State | Sat, Sep 17 | -11 | 0.871 |
Ball State | Georgia Southern | Sat, Sep 24 | 7 | 0.248 |
Northern Illinois | Ball State | Sat, Oct 1 | 8.5 | 0.198 |
Ball State | Central Michigan | Sat, Oct 8 | 13.5 | 0.1 |
UConn | Ball State | Sat, Oct 15 | -5.5 | 0.69 |
Eastern Michigan | Ball State | Sat, Oct 22 | 7 | 0.248 |
Ball State | Kent State | Tue, Nov 1 | 4.5 | 0.327 |
Ball State | Toledo | Tue, Nov 8 | 23.5 | 0 |
Ohio | Ball State | Tue, Nov 15 | 0 | 0.5 |
Miami (OH) | Ball State | Tue, Nov 22 | 11 | 0.129 |
Ball State entered last season as MAC preseason favorites and ended it just 6-7 after an offense that returned 10 starters managed just 24.1 PPG. The Cardinals must replace their starting quarterback and all-time leading receiver, but this yearâs offense has a good shot of besting the disappointing output of last season. RB Carson Steele is a keeper, the WR corps is still a strength with YoâHeinz Tyler and Jayshon Jackson back, and new starting QB John Paddock flashed arm talent in the spring.
The defense has allowed less than 30 PPG for two straight years, but that was with 10 and seven starters returning, respectively. This yearâs crew loses seven starters and five of the top six tacklers. Offensive improvement is needed, if only for the mere fact that defensive regression is likely coming.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 3.6
- Las Vegas win total: 5.5
- Thorâs bet: UNDER
My numbers have Ball State as double-digit favorites in one game and double-digit underdogs in four. If the Cardinals go 1-4 in those games, theyâd have to 5-2 in the seven games ATL projects with single-digit spreads to go over. The problem with that is ATL only favors Ball State in one of those games, with one pick âem. The Cards would have to significantly outperform my numbers to go over. Weâre taking the under.
Bowling Green Falcons
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 120 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Bowling Green | UCLA | Sat, Sep 3 | 25 | 0 |
EKU | Bowling Green | Sat, Sep 10 | -13.5 | 0.9 |
Marshall | Bowling Green | Sat, Sep 17 | 15.5 | 0.037 |
Bowling Green | Mississippi State | Sat, Sep 24 | 27 | 0 |
Bowling Green | Akron | Sat, Oct 1 | -2.5 | 0.545 |
Buffalo | Bowling Green | Sat, Oct 8 | 2 | 0.465 |
Miami (OH) | Bowling Green | Sat, Oct 15 | 8.5 | 0.198 |
Bowling Green | Central Michigan | Sat, Oct 22 | 11 | 0.129 |
Western Michigan | Bowling Green | Wed, Nov 2 | 2 | 0.465 |
Kent State | Bowling Green | Wed, Nov 9 | -1 | 0.513 |
Bowling Green | Toledo | Tue, Nov 15 | 21 | 0 |
Bowling Green | Ohio | Tue, Nov 22 | 1.5 | 0.475 |
During last seasonâs 4-8 campaign, Bowling Green upset Minnesota on the road and had three one-loss possessions. That team had only 11 returning starters. This yearâs squad has 18 returning - nine on each side of the ball. To plug holes of the departed, HC Scott Loeffler brought in transfers, such as former Cincinnati and Memphis pivot Jakari Robinson to play C. Depth is also much improved. This is setting up to be the most-talented Falcons squad since the Dino Babers days (4-8 is the high-water mark since then).
QB Matt McDonald is an experienced starter with arm-strength limitations who makes good decisions. The RB and WR rooms are very deep. On defense, all-seven starters in the front-seven return, and the defensive line, in particular, is a strength. The secondary must replace two starters, but pass defense was the teamâs biggest strength last fall (No. 9).
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 3.7
- Las Vegas win total: 3.5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
My numbers only favor Bowling Green in three games, partly due to a difficult schedule that includes road games at UCLA, Mississippi State, and Toledo. But my numbers also have Bowling Green as underdogs of two points or less in three games, offering the opportunity for a run at bowl eligibility. I lean over, and I do like this Bowling Green team, but because the margins are so close, I will pass on a bet.
Buffalo Bulls
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 108 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Buffalo | Maryland | Sat, Sep 3 | 17 | 0 |
Holy Cross | Buffalo | Sat, Sep 10 | -19 | 1 |
Buffalo | Coastal Carolina | Sat, Sep 17 | 12 | 0.116 |
Buffalo | Eastern Michigan | Sat, Sep 24 | 4 | 0.342 |
Miami (OH) | Buffalo | Sat, Oct 1 | 3 | 0.406 |
Buffalo | Bowling Green | Sat, Oct 8 | -2 | 0.535 |
Buffalo | UMass | Sat, Oct 15 | -9.5 | 0.811 |
Toledo | Buffalo | Sat, Oct 22 | 11 | 0.129 |
Buffalo | Ohio | Tue, Nov 1 | -1.5 | 0.525 |
Buffalo | Central Michigan | Wed, Nov 9 | 8 | 0.209 |
Akron | Buffalo | Sat, Nov 19 | -10.5 | 0.86 |
Kent State | Buffalo | Sat, Nov 26 | -6.5 | 0.724 |
Buffaloâs defense should be improved after it allowed a disappointing 29.9 PPG in 2021. Six starters are back, and the coaching staff aggressively mined the transfer portal for reinforcements, including former Texas A&M and Florida DB Elijah Blades. First-team All-MAC LB James Patterson, who posted 116 tackles last year, is the groupâs leader.
The defense needs to improve because the offense is an enormous question mark. Only three starters return, Buffalo needs to break in a new starting quarterback and running back, and the run-first team only has one returning starter along the offensive line. The hope is that two-time All-MAC returner Ron Cook will fill the RB hole and that former Arizona WR Boobie Curry will put a jolt into the receiving corps. If multiple things donât break right for Buffalo on offense, they could struggle to score points in 2022.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 5.8
- Las Vegas win total: 5.5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
The biggest thing this Buffalo team has going for it is its schedule, ranked No. 129 by Phil Steele. The non-con includes two cream puffs at home and Maryland as the only P5 foe, and Buffalo avoids Northern Illinois and Western Michigan in MAC play. ATL checks in close to the Vegas number with 5.8 projected wins. I will pass because of open questions about several key positions on the roster.
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Central Michigan Chippewas
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 87 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Central Michigan | Oklahoma State | Thur, Sep 1 | 18 | 0 |
South Alabama | Central Michigan | Sat, Sep 10 | -7.5 | 0.781 |
Bucknell | Central Michigan | Sat, Sep 17 | -23 | 1 |
Central Michigan | Penn State | Sat, Sep 24 | 22.5 | 0 |
Central Michigan | Toledo | Sat, Oct 1 | 12 | 0.116 |
Ball State | Central Michigan | Sat, Oct 8 | -13.5 | 0.9 |
Central Michigan | Akron | Sat, Oct 15 | -12 | 0.885 |
Bowling Green | Central Michigan | Sat, Oct 22 | -12.5 | 0.887 |
Central Michigan | Northern Illinois | Wed, Nov 2 | 1 | 0.488 |
Buffalo | Central Michigan | Wed, Nov 9 | -7 | 0.752 |
Western Michigan | Central Michigan | Wed, Nov 16 | -7.5 | 0.781 |
Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan | Fri, Nov 25 | -2 | 0.535 |
The Chips won seven-of-eight to finish 9-4 last season after a 2-3 start. They did so behind a top-25 total offense and a top-20 run defense that finished No. 6 in havoc rate. Seven starters return on offense. But CMU must replace OTs Bernard Raimann and Luke Goedeke, who were both picked in the top-76 in April, and dynamic WR Kalil Pimpleton (a UDFA who will at the very least be on a practice squad this fall). The other three OL return, as does MAC OPoY RB Lew Nichols, who rushed for 1,848 yards last year. So long as the offensive line gels, this offense will be potent.
The defense didnât lose any NFL Draft picks, but they lost a lot of veteran worker-bee starters. CMU returns only four starters on that side of the ball. The linebacking corps and secondary were hit particularly hard with graduations - both position groups will rely heavily on inexperienced players this fall. The good news is along the defensive line, which should be one of the most active fronts in the MAC.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 7.1
- Las Vegas win total: 7.5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
My numbers favor CMU in eight games, but that comes with a big caveat. Of CMUâs 12 games, five have spreads of 7.5-points or lower. Basically, CMU has two sure-losses (Oklahoma State and Penn State), one likely loss (Toledo), four very-likely wins (Bucknell, Ball State, Bowling Green, and Akron), and five coin-flip games. Certain position groups on this team are very good. Still, because the quality of the offensive line, linebacking corps, and secondary are so up in the air, thereâs too much uncertainty to bet this one.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 98 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Eastern Kentucky | Eastern Michigan | Fri, Sep 2 | -19 | 1 |
Eastern Michigan | Louisiana | Sat, Sep 10 | 8.5 | 0.198 |
Eastern Michigan | Arizona State | Sat, Sep 17 | 18 | 0 |
Buffalo | Eastern Michigan | Sat, Sep 24 | -4 | 0.658 |
UMass | Eastern Michigan | Sat, Oct 1 | -15.5 | 0.963 |
Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | Sat, Oct 8 | 0 | 0.5 |
Northern Illinois | Eastern Michigan | Sat, Oct 15 | 0 | 0.5 |
Eastern Michigan | Ball State | Sat, Oct 22 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
Toledo | Eastern Michigan | Sat, Oct 29 | 11 | 0.129 |
Eastern Michigan | Akron | Tue, Nov 8 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
Eastern Michigan | Kent State | Wed, Nov 16 | -3.5 | 0.643 |
Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan | Fri, Nov 25 | 2 | 0.465 |
The Eagles have 14 starters returning from last yearâs 7-6 team, including eight on offense. Last yearâs rushing offense was inconsistent (No. 112 nationally in rushing YPG), but the passing attack was stellar. EMU finished No. 34 in passing YPG and No. 27 in passing efficiency. EMUâs staff was stunned when starting QB Ben Bryant, who threw for 3,124 yards last year, transferred back to Cincinnati, the school heâd previously fled, to escape Desmond Ridderâs shadow.
EMU picked up the pieces by importing QB Taylor Powell, a former four-star Mizzou signee who started five games at Troy last year. Powellâs always had the tools but has battled consistency issues. If he can find his footing in that regard, he could throw for a ton of yards next year with all-three starting receivers returning from what was already one of the G5âs best WR corps. That development would be huge because EMU finished No. 107 in total defense last year and must replace five starters - that unit is likely to regress a little.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 6.7
- Las Vegas win total: 6.5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
ATL installs EMU as a double-digit favorite in two games, a double-digit underdog in two more, and projects single-digit spreads in the other eight games. Which tells you our band of outcomes here is anywhere from 2-10 to 10-2. ATLâs projection is right down the middle, at 6.6, basically identical to the Vegas number of 6.5. The number is spot-on, so we must pass.
Kent State Golden Flashes
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 119 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Kent State | Washington | Sat, Sep 3 | 23 | 0 |
Kent State | Oklahoma | Sat, Sep 10 | 33 | 0 |
Long Island | Kent State | Sat, Sep 17 | -14.5 | 0.949 |
Kent State | Georgia | Sat, Sep 24 | 43 | 0 |
Ohio | Kent State | Sat, Oct 1 | -4 | 0.658 |
Kent State | Miami (OH) | Sat, Oct 8 | 11.5 | 0.118 |
Kent State | Toledo | Sat, Oct 15 | 20.5 | 0 |
Akron | Kent State | Sat, Oct 22 | -6 | 0.707 |
Ball State | Kent State | Tue, Nov 1 | -5 | 0.681 |
Kent State | Bowling Green | Wed, Nov 9 | 1 | 0.488 |
Eastern Michigan | Kent State | Wed, Nov 16 | 3.5 | 0.357 |
Kent State | Buffalo | Sat, Nov 26 | 6.5 | 0.277 |
Where you come down on Kent State will primarily come down to how much you believe in HC Sean Lewis and DC Jeremiah Johnson, who was hired after a superb nine-year run at Northern Iowa. Only 12 starters return, but the projected starting lineup includes four Big 10 transfers and two ACC transfers. Those transfers are being counted on to plug gaping holes in the offensive line and the secondary, in particular.
The offense loses prolific QB Dustin Crum. But Lewis, who used to run Dino Babersâ offenses, is something of a quarterback whisperer. The hope is that dual-threat QB Collin Schlee will be the newest of his signal-callers that put up video game stats - if not, the offense will drop off. The scoring defense ranked No. 121 last year, and the total defense ranked No. 124 (partly because the offense plays so fast). The groupâs strength is in the secondary, which should suit Johnsonâs new 3-3-5 defense just fine. Any losses from last yearâs No. 4 total offense would need to be made back by gains on defense.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 4.2
- Las Vegas win total: 5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
The Golden Flashes face a hard one-two punch to begin the season: An inexperienced roster confronting a brutal September slate that includes Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia (along with an FCS team). Kent State is favored by ATL in its MAC opener but finds itself as a projected double-digit underdog in the two games after that. Likely to start 1-6 or 2-5, Kent State would theoretically need to close out the season 4-1 or 5-0 to go over. My system favors KSU in two of those games, has them as an underdog in two others and calls for a pick âem in the sixth. The band of outcomes here is anywhere between 3-9 and 8-4. Iâm a Lewis believer, so I will pass, even though my numbers lean for a bet on the under.
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Northern Illinois Huskies
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 92 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Eastern Illinois | Northern Illinois | Thur, Sep 1 | -21.5 | 1 |
Northern Illinois | Tulsa | Sat, Sep 10 | 2 | 0.465 |
Vanderbilt | Northern Illinois | Sat, Sep 17 | -9 | 0.807 |
Northern Illinois | Kentucky | Sat, Sep 24 | 21 | 0 |
Northern Illinois | Ball State | Sat, Oct 1 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
Toledo | Northern Illinois | Sat, Oct 8 | 8 | 0.209 |
Northern Illinois | Eastern Michigan | Sat, Oct 15 | 0 | 0.5 |
Northern Illinois | Ohio | Sat, Oct 22 | -6 | 0.707 |
Central Michigan | Northern Illinois | Wed, Nov 2 | -1 | 0.513 |
Northern Illinois | Western Michigan | Wed, Nov 9 | -1.5 | 0.525 |
Miami (OH) | Northern Illinois | Wed, Nov 16 | 0 | 0.5 |
Akron | Northern Illinois | Sat, Nov 26 | -13.5 | 0.9 |
NIU HC Thomas Hammock entered last season with one of the nationâs youngest and least-experienced rosters (Phil Steeleâs No. 126 in experience), coming off a winless COVID-shorted 2020 season. I was among the media that believed the Huskies would stink. Instead, following a 1-2 start, NIU ripped off a 7-2 run to finish the regular season and then whipped Kent State in the MAC title game before losing 47-41 to Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl. This year, courtesy of 18 returning starters, NIU catapults from Phil Steeleâs No. 126 most-experienced roster to No. 12!
The two-biggest losses from last yearâs team are MAC Freshman of the Year RB Jay Ducker and versatile H-Back Clint Ratkovich. That pair helped improve a ghastly run offense (2020âs rushing YPG was the lowest in the program since 1998) into a machine (ranked No. 4 in rushing YPG in 2021). Luckily, RB Harrison Waylee is back - he averaged 5.7 YPC to Duckerâs 5.4, albeit in a little less than half the carries. The running game may fall off a little, but the passing offense (No. 105 last year) should be better with standouts back at QB (Rocky Lombardi) and WR (Trayvon Rudolph). The defense, which ranked No. 112 last year, is also better with nine returning starters.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 6.9
- Las Vegas win total: 6.5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
NIU is a fascinating thought experiment. They return 18 starters from a team that seemed to have rabbitâs feet and four-leaf clovers stuffed in pads during last yearâs charmed 9-5 campaign. After six-of-eight regular season games last year were won by single-digits, many in come-from-behind fashion, the obvious question becomes: Will the battle-tested, experienced 2022 roster make up for a regression-to-the-mean of luck NIU enjoyed in 2021? ATL sets single-digit lines in nine of NIUâs 12 games this fall - if team quality doesnât exceed last yearâs, NIU could plummet back to earth. But if NIU is significantly improved, the Huskies could also challenge for double-digit wins. It feels like the books are begging for over bets - theyâre not getting one here. This oneâs too close to call.
Miami (OH) Redhawks
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 82 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Miami (OH) | Kentucky | Sat, Sep 3 | 18.5 | 0 |
Robert Morris | Miami (OH) | Sat, Sep 10 | -24 | 1 |
Cincinnati | Miami (OH) | Sat, Sep 17 | 14.5 | 0.051 |
Miami (OH) | Northwestern | Sat, Sep 24 | 4 | 0.342 |
Miami (OH) | Buffalo | Sat, Oct 1 | -3 | 0.594 |
Kent State | Miami (OH) | Sat, Oct 8 | -11.5 | 0.882 |
Miami (OH) | Bowling Green | Sat, Oct 15 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
Western Michigan | Miami (OH) | Sat, Oct 22 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
Miami (OH) | Akron | Sat, Oct 29 | -12.5 | 0.887 |
Ohio | Miami (OH) | Tue, Nov 8 | -13.5 | 0.9 |
Miami (OH) | Northern Illinois | Wed, Nov 16 | 0 | 0.5 |
Ball State | Miami (OH) | Tue, Nov 22 | -14.5 | 0.949 |
The offense returns nine starters, including QB Brett Gabbert, who has thrown 5,443 yards over two-plus years as a starter. The team must replace WR1 Jack Sorenson, who posted a jumbo 76-1406-10 receiving line last season. But WR Mac Hippenhammer, who started at Penn State, should fill those shoes neatly. The offensive line should be one of the MACâs best and the top-four RB return.
The good news on defense is that LB Ryan McWood, who posted 99 tackles in 2019, is back after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 1 last season. The bad news is seven starters depart, including most of the unitâs best players (including R5 pick Dominique Robinson). The Redhawks will likely take a step backward on defense.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 7.7
- Las Vegas win total: 6.5
- Thorâs bet: OVER
The Redhawks should start 1-2 but are only installed by ATL as underdogs in one-of-nine games to close the regular season. ATL pegs the Redhawks as double-digit favorites in five games (and six total). If Miami takes care of business against the underbelly of their schedule, theyâd only need to win one-of-three winnable road games - Northwestern, Buffalo, or NIU - to go over. Thatâs the outcome we expect.
Ohio Bobcats
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 120 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Florida Atlantic | Ohio | Sat, Sep 3 | 2.5 | 0.455 |
Ohio | Penn State | Sat, Sep 10 | 32.5 | 0 |
Ohio | Iowa State | Sat, Sep 17 | 24.5 | 0 |
Fordham | Ohio | Sat, Sep 24 | -13.5 | 0.9 |
Ohio | Kent State | Sat, Oct 1 | 3.5 | 0.357 |
Akron | Ohio | Sat, Oct 8 | -5.5 | 0.69 |
Ohio | Western Michigan | Sat, Oct 15 | 7 | 0.248 |
Northern Illinois | Ohio | Sat, Oct 22 | 5.5 | 0.311 |
Buffalo | Ohio | Tue, Nov 1 | 1.5 | 0.475 |
Ohio | Miami (OH) | Tue, Nov 8 | 13 | 0.107 |
Ohio | Ball State | Tue, Nov 15 | 0 | 0.5 |
Bowling Green | Ohio | Tue, Nov 22 | -1.5 | 0.525 |
It was a trying 2021 season, which began with Frank Solichâs health-related retirement last summer and ended with a 3-9 record. That was the programâs worst record since a 2-10 finish in 2003. The offense only returns five starters but three along the offensive line. The first year HC Tim Albinâs QB platoon of Kurtis Rourke and Armani Rogers blew up in his face - Rourke now has the offense to himself, and thatâs for the betterment of Ohioâs attack. Expect offensive improvement.
The defense was a little better than the offense last year (No. 96), and itâs likely to become an even more pronounced strength this fall. The Bobcats return nine starters on that side of the ball. The only loss of substance was DE Will Evans, and Ohio signed transfers at that position from Purdue and Michigan State to address the concern. Ohio projects to have a MAC-average defense. But the Bobcats also may have the best special teams unit in the conference.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 4.6
- Las Vegas win total: 5.5
- Thorâs bet: Pass
Thereâs a ludicrous amount of variance at play here. Ohio will likely go 1-3 in the games with double-digit spreads. But ATL sets lines of 7.0 or lower in the other eight games. Ohioâs outcomes are anywhere from 1-11 to 10-2. Because we canât be sure how much the offense will improve, it doesnât make sense to make a referendum against this schedule with so many coin-flip games.
Western Michigan Broncos
Thorâs Preseason Power Ranking: 107 out of 131
Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
Western Michigan | Michigan State | Sat, Sep 3 | 27.5 | 0 |
Western Michigan | Ball State | Sat, Sep 10 | -4.5 | 0.673 |
Pittsburgh | Western Michigan | Sat, Sep 17 | 23 | 0 |
Western Michigan | San Jose State | Sat, Sep 24 | 6.5 | 0.277 |
New Hampshire | Western Michigan | Sat, Oct 1 | -17.5 | 1 |
Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | Sat, Oct 8 | 0 | 0.5 |
Ohio | Western Michigan | Sat, Oct 15 | -7 | 0.752 |
Western Michigan | Miami (OH) | Sat, Oct 22 | 8.5 | 0.198 |
Western Michigan | Bowling Green | Tue, Nov 1 | -2 | 0.535 |
Northern Illinois | Western Michigan | Tue, Nov 8 | 1.5 | 0.475 |
Western Michigan | Central Michigan | Tue, Nov 15 | 7.5 | 0.219 |
Toledo | Western Michigan | Tue, Nov 22 | 12 | 0.116 |
Western Michigan went 8-5 last season, the best record of HC Tim Lesterâs five-year tenure. Unless he retools a decimated offense quickly, Lester may follow up his best season with his worst. Gone are the vaunted aerial duo of QB Kaleb Eleby and WR Skyy Moore, as well as three standout starters along the offensive line. Only four starters return on offense. But the Broncos do have a nearly 2k-rushing yard duo returning in RBs Sean Tyler and LaâDarius Jefferson.
Way more optimism on the defensive side. Seven starters return, including all-three linebackers along what already was one of the MACâs best second-levels. The secondary returns two starters, one of them a second-team MAC corner. The only question is up front, where the Broncos lost a pair of first-team all-conference players in NT Ralph Holley and EDGE Ali Fayad. WMU may fall off a little from its MAC-leading 3.3 sacks per game in 2021.
College Football Futures Betting Takeaways
- Thorâs projected win total: 4.7
- Las Vegas win total: 6.5
- Thorâs bet: UNDER
Last yearâs offense finished No. 12 in yards per game behind a balanced offense that could both throw and run. With the arrow pointing sharply down on the passing offense, and uncertainty at the offensive line potentially playing down the rushing attack, my numbers are pessimistic about the Broncos. The defense figures to be solid, but part of the reason WMU finished No. 10 in pass defense last year was its ability to pressure quarterbacks, and 19 sacks just walked out the door between Fayad and Holley, the teamâs top-two finishers in that stat last year. Lester has never finished below .500, but he will need to uncover some hidden gems at critical positions to avoid ATLâs 4-8/5-7 projection.
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