2022 Fiesta Bowl: College Football Semifinal Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Michigan vs. TCU)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Saturday, December 31. And here’s his best bet for the 2022 Fiesta Bowl.
- 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
- 2022 bowls (through Dec. 29): 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%)
- 2022 combined: 102-77-4 ATS (56.9%)
- 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Fiesta Bowl: College Football Semifinal Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Michigan vs. TCU)
- Saturday, December 31 | 3:00 PM
- Michigan (-7.5) vs. TCU | Total: 58.5
- ATL: Michigan -5.6 | ATT: 62
TCU Inactives
- WR Quincy Brown (Injury)
- WR Caleb Medford (Transfer portal)
TCU is at full strength. WR Brown has been out since early September with a knee or ankle injury that appears to be season-ending. He and WR Medford combined for only 44 snaps this fall.
Michigan Inactives
- QB Cade McNamara (Transfer portal)
- QB Alan Bowman (Transfer portal)
- RB Blake Corum (Injury)
- TE Erick All (Transfer portal)
- TE Colston Loveland (Injury)
- TE Louis Hansen (Transfer portal)
- LS William Wagner (Injury)
- DT Mazi Smith (Legal)
- DT George Rooks (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Mark Morris (Injury)
- EDGE Eyabi Okie (Injury)
- S Caden Kolesar (Injury)
RB Corum has been shut down for the CFP with a knee injury. Corum was a consensus All-American and finished seventh in the Heisman voting. He ran for 1,463 yards and 18 TD on 5.92 YPC before going down with a knee injury in the second-to-last regular season game against Illinois. Corum tried to play through the injury but had only two carries for six yards against Ohio State before the plug was pulled.
TE Colston Loveland got hurt on a special teams play in the Big 10 title game and is questionable to play. QB McNamara and TE All, who were already out for the season with injuries, each recently transferred to Iowa. Yes, QB Bowman is still around, and he still has remaining eligibility. The Wolverines replaced him on the roster with the even-better traveled QB Jack Tuttle, keeping their where-is-he-now? quota alive in the QB room.
Following DT Smith’s arrest for felony gun charges and in advance of the Big 10 title game, Michigan did not choose to suspend Smith. Smith’s sentencing is scheduled for Dec. 29, two days prior to Michigan playing TCU. I’ve heard that Smith and the university are both extremely confident that the charges will be dropped.
EDGE Morris, the Big Ten defensive lineman of the year, missed the Big 10 title game with what was described as a “tweak†of a nagging undisclosed injury. Banged up throughout November, Morris still leads the Wolverines with 7.5 sacks. EDGE Okie was injured on the last play of that game, chasing Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell out of bounds. Each of their statuses needs to be monitored in the lead-up to the TCU game.
LS Wagner is out for the season with an undisclosed injury. Backup S Kolesar is out for the season with a knee injury, backup DT Rooks is looking for a new home in the portal.
Handicap
TCU must slow Michigan’s run game to stay within this number. Based on its work this season, the Horned Frogs have a shot – but they’re no sure thing to succeed.
TCU’s run defense had multiple sterling performances this season, the most impressive of which was shutting out the lights on Texas’ vaunted RB duo. RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson combined for 43 yards on 17 carries in that game.
But over the last three games, TCU has given up 200-plus rushing yards each time. The Frogs coughed up 205 on 4.7 YPC against Kansas State. TCU’s overall advanced run defense metrics are middle-of-the-road. But TCU didn’t arrive here through consistency, they arrived here through high variance. This part of the handicap is the most important – it’s also the most high-variance.
Michigan has managed to stay strong on the ground even without star RB Corum. Wolverines RB Donovan Edwards lit up Ohio State for 216 yards on 9.8 YPC in the regular season finale and was B1G title game MVP after dropping 185 yards on Purdue.
That area of the game is definitely advantageous to Michigan – but TCU’s inconsistency in this area introduces a wide band of outcomes for what we can expect. I’m more confident in TCU’s pass defense – No. 22 success rate, 53.9% opponent completion percentage, 14 INT – slowing down surging Michigan QB JJ McCarthy.
McCarthy averaged 10.3 YPC in the last two games against the Buckeyes and Boilermakers, shredding them both. But TCU’s frisky pass defense is also opportunistic, and the advanced numbers say McCarthy has put the ball in harm’s way more often than he’s been penalized with an ultimate turnover. There’s a real chance we see a flip toward regression here, which would benefit TCU in the form of a turnover or two.
TCU’s offense averaged 40.3 PPG. It is led by Heisman Trophy runner-up Max Duggan, who lost his job coming out of camp only to reclaim it and rally TCU to a historic season. QB Duggan is a dangerous runner who lacks placement but has a strong arm as a thrower.
TCU’s rushing offense is top 20 in the nation, but Michigan’s run defense is top two. It’ll be interesting to see if Duggan can manufacture yards in this area. Duggan is the most dangerous rushing quarterback that Michigan will have faced this year. Assuredly, Duggan’s legs will make Michigan think twice before pinning its ears back with abandon in the pass rush.
Michigan’s pass defense also has the advantage over TCU’s passing offense heading in. But there’s another caveat: The Frogs have a matchup trump card on the outside in WR Quentin Johnston, who’ll go in Round 1 in the spring. Michigan must have a plan for him. And TCU must have a counter-plan if the Wolverines’ entails over-the-top help all game. That’ll mean 10-on-9 football over the rest of the field.
TCU has been one of the better in-game adjustment teams in the nation this year, so you’d figure they’d adapt quickly to what Michigan is throwing at them. But no team was better at halftime adjustments than the Wolverines. So we’re going to be treated to a chess master’s back-and-forth game-within-a-game for 60 minutes.
One sneaky area that isn’t being discussed enough: The Horned Frogs, who struggled with injuries at the beginning of November, are not only fully healthy now, but fully rested for the first time in a long time. TCU had to play 11 straight games after its September 17 bye.
Michigan is the more reliable outfit. TCU is the high-variance proposition. We see Round 1 routes all the time – since 2015, 11 of 14 semifinal games have been 14+ point blowouts – and we could get another here. But there’s just as good a chance that TCU throws enough off-angle looks at Michigan to befuddle them for stretches and make a game of this.
Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh – as gifted as they come as a pure coach – is, we must mention, 1-5 ATS and SU at Michigan in bowls. TCU HC Sonny Dykes is in a no-pressure scenario: Nobody expects the Frogs to win, so he can throw caution to the wind here.
I do think Michigan wins. But I’m going to side with my system and take the points with TCU.
The pick: TCU +7.5
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