2022 Gator Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (Notre Dame vs. South Carolina)

Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Gator Bowl.

2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

2022 Gator Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (Notre Dame vs. South Carolina)

Jacksonville, FL | Friday, December 30 | 2:30 PM

Notre Dame (-2) vs. South Carolina | Total: 51.5
ATL: Pick ‘em | ATT: 52

Notre Dame

QB Drew Pyne (Transfer portal)
QB Tyler Buchner (Injury)
WR Avery Davis (Injury)
WR Tobias Merriweather (Injury)
WR Joe Wilkins Jr. (Transfer portal)
TE Michael Mayer (Opt-out)
TE Kevin Bauman (Injury)
TE Eli Raridon (Injury)
TE Cane Berrong (Transfer portal)
DT Jacob Lacey (Transfer portal)
EDGE Isaiah Foskey (Opt-out)
EDGE Ositadinma Ekwonu (Transfer portal)
DB Jayden Bellamy (Transfer portal)
CB Cam Hart (Injury)

TE Mayer and EDGE Foskey are huge, huge losses. Mayer was a matchup nightmare who will go in Round 1 in the spring. Despite consistently drawing double- or even triple-teams this fall, Mayer posted a 67-809-9 receiving line as the only Irish receiving weapon that scared opponents.

Foskey was easily the team’s best pass-rusher with 12 sacks. It was his second-straight season with 11-or-more. DT Lacey had two sacks and five tackles against Cal, but he announced his intention to transfer in October – he ultimately signed with Oklahoma.

QB Pyne’s defection – for Arizona State – seemingly left the Irish with an uncertain quarterback situation. But, lo and behold, Week 1 starter QB Tyler Buchner is going to start this game, per HC Marcus Freeman,

Buchner was thought to have suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in September. But Buchner returned to practice earlier this month and is ready to go. QB3 Steve Angeli will back him up.

WR Davis, a projected starter, was lost for the season before it began with a knee injury. With a concussion, WR Merriweather, who played 68 snaps in the fall, is questionable. TEs Raridon and Bauman were both lost for the season with injuries early-on, and TE Berrong has transferred. All three were backups but could have seen more time in the bowl game with Mayer’s defection.

CB Hart was one of the Irish’s two starting outside corners. He has been ruled out for this game with a shoulder injury suffered against Boston College. Though he won’t play in the bowl, Hart said he will return to school next fall.

The Irish have a strong starter on the other side in CB Benjamin Morrison, and also a solid starting nickel CB in TaRiq Bracy. Technically, the top outside-corner backup is Jaden Mickey. Mickey started for Hart against USC and got lit up. Per PFF, Mickey has allowed receptions on 12 of 15 targets this season for an average of 20.3 YPR.

CB Clarence Lewis has been the better player in 2022 – and far better in coverage – but the staff has used Lewis as a rotational fill-in interchangeably in the slot and on the outside as needed. If it were me, I would start CB Lewis on the outside in this game, with CB Mickey coming off the bench to spell the outside corners.

If nickel CB Bracy got hurt, I would shift Lewis inside and bring in Mickey to finish the game at the outside spot he was shifting in from. But at least as of the USC game, this didn’t seem to be the prerogative of the staff. If Mickey is starting again, I’m hunting the props on the South Carolina receiver projected to line up across from him.

South Carolina

RB Marshawn Lloyd (Transfer Portal)
RB Christian Beal-Smith (Injury)
RB Lovasea Carroll (Injury)
WR Josh Vann (Injury)
WR Corey Rucker (Transfer portal)
WR Jalen Brooks (Unknown)
TE Jaheim Bell (Transfer portal)
TE Austin Stogner (Transfer portal)
TE Traevon Kenion (Retirement)
TE/WR Chad Terrell (Injury)
OT Dylan Wonnum (Opt-out)
DT Zacch Pickens (Opt-out)
EDGE Terrell Dawkins (Injury)
EDGE Gilber Edmond (Transfer portal)
LB Mohamed Kaba (Injury)
CB Cam Smith (Opt-out)
CB Darius Rush (Opt-out/Injury)
CB Joey Hunter (Transfer portal)
S R.J. Roderick (Transfer portal)
S David Spaulding (Injury)
S Tyrese Ross (Transfer portal)
S Devonni Reed (Opt-out)

QB Spencer Rattler, coming off two sensational showings, announced that he will play. That’s the good news. The bad news is South Carolina got hit with the defections of numerous key contributors at other positions.

RB1 Lloyd is an NFL talent looking for a new home. RB2 Beal-Smith was limited in practices as of mid-December, with his right foot heavily taped. I’ve also been told that Beal-Smith has been moving around campus in a walking boot. Beal-Smith’s presence at practice suggests he’s hoping to play. But as of mid-December, he’s clearly nowhere near 100 percent. Backup RB Carroll has been ruled out with an undisclosed injury.

The Gamecocks had an embarrassment of riches with receiving tight ends this fall. Still, no longer after both TE Bell and TE Stogner entered the portal – they’re headed to Florida State and back to Oklahoma, respectively. Backup TE Kenion was expected to take heavy snaps in the bowl game in their stead – but Kenion announced his retirement from the game in the days that followed.

Keep in mind that TE/WR Terrell was lost before the season to a torn ACL. The Gamecocks are so far down on the depth chart at that position at this point that it’s going to require playbook alterations. Here’s what HC Shane Beamer said about that: “There’s four tight ends that played in the Clemson game, and three of them aren’t here right now. So to say that we’re going to be able to do two-tight end sets is fairly irresponsible to say,” Beamer said. “And to think that we’re going to be able to play Nate Adkins every single play of the game. We really don’t have a second tight end.”

So that would mean more receivers on the field. Of course, the Gamecocks have questions about that position, too.

WR Vann was ruled out in the week lead-up to the game with the knee sprain he suffered in the regular season finale against Clemson. HC Beamer said WR Brooks is dealing with an “off-the-field issue” but is practicing and will travel to the bowl game – Beamer added that Brooks’ availability for the game has not yet been decided. WR Rucker is out the door via transfer.

Starting RT Wonnum is off to the NFL and won’t play. Wonnum started 40 of 42 career games with the Gamecocks.

EDGE Edmond was another starter, though PFF graded his 2022 work a poor 59.4. DT Pickens declared for the draft and opted out. Pickens, likely a mid-rounder, started all 12 games and posted 42 tackles, four TFLs, and 2.5 sacks. EDGE Dawkins and LB Kaba, both little-used backups, are likely out with injuries.

In April, CB Smith was one of the nation’s top cover corners and a first-round candidate. He opted out to begin his pre-draft preparation after declaring for the NFL Draft. Smith had 11 passes defended last season.

Smith’s partner on the opposite boundary, CB Rush, followed suit by declaring for the draft on Dec. 15. Rush had an additional reason to opt out – he’s been mending from a hamstring injury.

S Reed, who started his only season after coming over as a graduate transfer from Central Michigan, won’t play after declaring for the draft. The 5-foot-11, 200-pounder had 39 tackles during the regular season.

That makes three secondary starters out for South Carolina. Two regular starting defensive backs will play: Marcellus Dial and Nick Emmanwori. DQ Smith, who started several times in the fall due to injuries, is going to draw another as well.

South Carolina did get good news with the NCAA’s blanket-waiver announcement for bowl games. That means QB2 Luke Doty and S Spaulding – who began the year as the starting nickel – can play in this game while still using a redshirt for this season. Each had appeared in four games during the regular season. Spaulding has been out for the last two months due to a foot injury, but the program thinks he has a shot to return for the bowl.

Coaching news

South Carolina OC Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska. Gamecocks HC Shane Beamer said he will not announce an offensive play-caller for the bowl prior to the game.

Handicap

This is another “opt-out” bowl where it’s difficult to make heads or tails of which version of each team we’ll see.

Notre Dame had an efficient-but-unsexy passing offense during the fall, mostly because nobody could stop TE Mayer. With Mayer and QB Pyne out the door and dual-threat QB Buchner starting, the Irish will lean heavily into the run game.

The Irish’s three-headed RB platoon is intact – thunder back Audric Estime, lightning back Chris Tyree, and jitterbug Logan Diggs – as is the offensive line. Buchner probably is a downgrade from Pyne as a thrower at the moment, but he’s definitely an upgrade as a runner.

The big issue for South Carolina is that their run defense was rancid even while at full strength in the fall, ranking No. 126 in success rate and No. 129 in stuff rate. Notre Dame’s run offense finished No. 22 and No. 4 in those categories, respectively.

And South Carolina’s defense decidedly is not at full strength. Notre Dame should run all over the Gamecocks.

Conversely, South Carolina has enormous issues at RB, WR, and TE. The good news is QB Spencer Rattler will play. Rattler led the Gamecocks to consecutive outright upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson as 14-point-or-more underdogs. But can he keep the good times rolling, working with a bunch of backups?

ND’s defensive weakness is against the run. But the Gamecocks aren’t likely heading into this game wanting to run much anyway as far as they’ll be down the depth chart at that position. So that’ll come down to whether Rattler can negate everything going against SC to propel the Gamecocks to a win.

My system says it’s possible, pegging this game a pick ‘em. But despite that, and despite being bullish on South Carolina’s end-of-season surge, and despite acknowledging that South Carolina upset UNC in last year’s bowl while similar early appearing to be out-gunned heading in, I’m going to side with Notre Dame so long as the line is under a field goal.

The pick: Notre Dame -2

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