2022 Kentucky Derby: Betting Guide, Odds, & Predictions
The first leg of Horse Racing’s triple crown is set to go off at 6:67 PM EST Saturday, with no shortage of coverage and analysis between now and then, as we settle in with this comprehensive betting guide to get you in on the action. In what will be the first Kentucky Derby with the complete 160,000+ set of fans in attendance since 2019, this year will be a special one as it’s a return to normalcy for sports fans (and bettors) to enjoy.
Unlike in years past, this year offers nothing in the way of dominant favorites, with the closest thing to it being Zandon (3/1), trailed by Epicenter (7/2) just shortly behind. Do any horses trailing behind have a shot of bringing home the 148th Kentucky Derby?
Let’s take a closer look.
Your Complete Betting Guide to the Kentucky Derby >>
Previous Winners of the Kentucky Derby
- 2021: Mandaloun
- 2020: Authentic
- 2019: Country House
- 2018: Justify
Track Preview: Churchill Downs
Opened in 1875, Churchill Downs is one of the more iconic venues in all sports, hosting the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup nine times, most recently in 2018. The #22 rated track as ranked by the Horseplayers Association of North America, Churchill Downs is most known for its distance at precisely 1 1/4 mile in circumference.
Because of the distance factor, being longer than most weeks, the Derby is known for weeding out horses who start fast and don’t have the stamina to close the distance late. Known as the “fastest two minutes in sports,†the fastest recorded lap in history was in 1973, coming in at 1:59.4 minutes (Secretariat).
Underdoing a renovation that finished in 2005, Churchill Downs can now hold somewhere in the neighborhood of 170,000 fans between its grandstand and infield. The twin spires at the top of the grandstands have become known as the most recognizable features on the property and a symbol of the Derby each and every year.
Outright Favorite Betting Pick (10/1 or less)
Epicenter (+350)
Trailing only Zandon in terms of odds, I think Epicenter could very well be the favorite in this race by the time it goes off. Trained by North America’s win leader (9,750+), Steve Asmussen, Epicenter was born right here in Kentucky and will be making the short drive over to Churchill for this one.
As impressive as Asmussen’s career has been, which includes two Preakness wins and a Belmont win, the Derby has long as evaded him. It’s widely believed, however, that Epicenter gives him the best shot he has had over the past decade.
Epicenter will also have an elite jockey in the saddle in Joel Rosario, who has raced in 10 Kentucky Derbies, winning here in 2013 on the back of Orb. He also has six top-five finishes and is one of the most established jockeys in the field.
And then there is Epicenter himself. Already a winner of this year’s Lousiana Derby, Epicenter has won four of his past five races, finishing second in his sole non-win. With his speed steadily increasing in each race of his career this far, he hit 102 on the Beyer meter during his race at Lousiana, a speed that has the potential to bring home this race.
With one of the most complete teams in the field, Epicenter will be on plenty of my cards this weekend to show, place, and of course, win the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
Outright Longshot Betting Pick (15/1 or more)
Taiba (+1200)
Taiba is looking to become just the second horse since 1883 to win the Kentucky Derby in just his third career race. However, if there were ever a team to produce such a legend, Taiba’s would be it.
Formerly trained by horse racing icon Bob Baffert, who is currently serving a suspension following a post-race failed drug test from last year’s winner Medina Spirit (since retracted), Taiba has got the stuff. Tim Yakteen has since taken over the trainer reigns, officially, already securing a win in Taiba’s second career race at the Santa Anita Derby in April.
Taiba also has a legendary jockey in his saddle in Mike Smith, who has more experience than any other jockey in this year’s field with 27 career starts in the Kentucky Derby alone. A two-time winner (2005, 2018), the 56-year-old Hall of Famer might have his best remaining shot at a third here on the back of Epicenter.
If Smith can get the horse to handle its tempo out of the gate, competing next to more than six horses for the first time in his career, Taiba has the stuff to bring this one home. Despite these long odds, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see the Baffert-Yakteen-Smith trio bring this horse to the winner circle come Saturday evening in Kentucky.
And check out our previews for the top horses of the 2022 Kentucky Derby:
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