2022 Mayo Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (North Carolina State vs. Maryland)

Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Mayo Bowl.

2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

2022 Mayo Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (North Carolina State vs. Maryland)

Charlotte, NC | Friday, December 30 | 11:00 AM

North Carolina State (-1) vs. Maryland | Total: 47
ATL: NC State -4.0 | ATT: 42

Maryland

QB Billy Edwards Jr. (Injury)
WR Dontay Demus Jr. (Opt-out)
WR Jacob Copeland (Opt-out)
WR Rakim Jarrett (Opt-out)
TE CJ Dippre (Transfer portal)
TE Weston Wolff (Transfer portal)
OG Ja’Khi Green (Transfer portal)
DT Zion Shockley (Transfer portal)
DT Austin Fontaine (Transfer portal)
EDGE Tyler Baylor (Transfer portal)
LB Ahmad McCullough (Transfer portal)
CB Deonte Banks (Opt-out)
S Isaiah Hazel (Transfer portal)
S Shane Mosley (Transfer portal)

QB1 Taulia Tagovailoa was nicked up in the campaign’s latter half but did in the regular season finale against Rutgers. He is expected to start. QB2 Edwards Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury.

Maryland’s awesome receiving corps was decimated by the opt-outs of star WRs Demus Jr., Jarrett, and Copeland. That group combined for 87 catches this season for 1,080 yards this fall. All are NFL talents.

Maryland still has one standout receiver who’ll be active for the bowl game in WR Jeshaun Jones. Outside of Jones, the Terps are very thin on the offensive perimeter. In addition to Jones, the Terps need TE Corey Dyches to step up.

Dyches platooned with TE Dippre this season but will get all the work in the bowl game. Dippre is getting a ton of attention in the portal, with Ohio State and Alabama, among others, fighting over him.

LB McCullough was Maryland’s fourth-leading tackler. CB Banks was an honorable mention all-Big 10 honoree in 2022. Both were obviously relied-upon, valued starters.

The Terps did get good news on that side of the ball when edge-rushing OLB Durell Nchami would play in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl before beginning draft preparations. Nchami is second on the team with six TFL.

OG Green, TE Wolff, DT Hazel, DT Fontaine, S Hazel, and S Mosley were all backups.

NC State

QB Devin Leary (Transfer portal)
QB M.J. Morris (Injury)
RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (Injury)
WR Devin Carter (Transfer portal)
WR Tyler Baker-Williams (Injury)
WR Jasiah Provillon (Transfer portal)
TE Trent Pennix (Injury)
OC Grant Gibson (Injury)
DT Joshua Harris (Transfer portal)
EDGE Claude Larkins (Transfer portal)
EDGE Savion Jackson (Injury)
CB Devan Boykin (Injury)
CB Joshua Pierre-Louis (Transfer portal)

QB Leary is recovering from a season-ending injury suffered in October, so his decision to hop into the portal doesn’t change the equation on the Wolfpack side. With QB2 Morris missing the last two games with a lower-body injury and NC State having soured on former backup Jack Chambers, QB4 Ben Finley took over for the last two games.

Morris’s status for the bowl is uncertain, but he’ll start if able. Finley didn’t look good in his first action against Boston College, but he turned it around in the finale against UNC, going 27-of-40 for 271 yards with two TD and no INT. Morris has returned to practice in advance of this game. But some in the media don’t believe he has a good chance to play. HC Dave Doeren has declined to name a starter for the bowl or address the situation further.

Starting OC Gibson will miss this game with an injury. So will DE Jackson, who was shut down for the campaign with a knee injury. Recent reports are optimistic that CB Boykin and WR Baker-Williams can return to the bowl from injury. News hasn’t been as optimistic about RB Sumo-Karngbaye or TE Pennix.

Starting WR Carter opted out to begin searching for his next school in the transfer portal. Limited to eight games in 2022 with injury, Carter caught 25 balls for 406 yards and two TD. He finished his career with 118 receptions, 1,906 yards, and 10 TD.

Portal defections WR Provillon, DT Harris, EDGE Larkins, and CB Pierre-Louis were reserves.

The Wolfpack have a few more rumored opt-outs, but as of this update on Dec. 18, all are expected to play. That list includes LB Drake Thomas, DL Cory Durden, LB Isaiah Moore, CB Tanner Ingle, iOL Chandler Zavala, and WR Thayer Thomas.

Coaching news

NC State OC Tim Beck left to take Coastal Carolina’s HC gig. NC State HC Doeren announced offensive play-calling would be a “collective effort” in the bowl between QB coach Kurt Roper, WR coach Joker Phillips, and TE coach Todd Goebbel.

Handicap

When Maryland was at full strength this fall, they were extremely frisky – the Terps went 7-5 against the No. 27 SP+ strength of schedule and played Michigan and Ohio State tougher than anyone.

Unfortunately, Maryland won’t be at full strength for the bowl. The opt-outs of the three-star receivers and TE Dippre really hurts this pass-happy team that thrived on YAC yardage. And the Terps’ defense, which took a step forward this season, will be without two valued starters.

NC State’s No. 13 SP+ defense is the best unit either team will bring to the field (omitting special teams – each has a top-10 national special teams, essentially washing itself out in the handicap). That Wolfpack defense, which should be more or less intact, isn’t likely to have many issues with Maryland’s light-on-weapons passing attack.

If that’s the case, the Wolfpack will only need to manage so much offense on the other side to win the game. And NC State should be able to manage that, chipping away with the run game, swing-outs to the running backs, and manufacturing completions with easy reads for whichever young quarterback is starting.

NC State is way more comfortable in the sort of game I project this to be. The Wolfpack went 4-1 in games decided by three points or less this fall, while Maryland went 0-1. NCSU HC Dave Doeren is a career 5-2 ATS in bowl games. We think he bags another postseason win.

The pick: NC State -1.5

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