2022 MLB Win Totals: Best Bets for the National League
It took 99 days, but Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association were finally able to come to an agreement and get the nation's pastime back into action. There's a lot to get done before the first regular-season pitch is thrown on April 7th, but at least baseball is back and the league is heading in the right direction.
An important note about baseball returning is that every team will play a full 162 game schedule in 2022. Whether you're a casual bettor or a seasoned veteran, knowing the length of the season obviously plays a factor in how we'll be betting the MLB futures market - especially win totals. Below I've listed a team from each division that I think will surpass or fall short of their win total set by the sportsbooks:
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NL East: Philadelphia Phillies Over 82.5 (-110, via Draftkings)
The Phillies finished the 2021 campaign in second place with a final record of 82-80. That was an underwhelming finish in the eyes of the Phillies faithful - especially when you have a lineup with star power like Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins.
Offensively, the same trio will headline the lineup for the Phillies in 2022. They combined for 79 homers last season and batted in a combined 228 RBIs. If we're being frank, you'll probably need that production to come up a little bit in order to really compete in this division. I'm confident that those numbers will rise as Rhys Hoskins is set to play a full season, as opposed to missing 50+ games as he did in 2021. Didi Gregorius will also be back and healthy after playing only 103 games last season. Look for the young third baseman, Alec Bohm to take a big leap forward for Philadelphia as well. Bohm is a 24-year-old who slashed .247/.305/.342 and the organization is hoping he'll develop his potential and be a mainstay at the hot corner for years to come. Not to mention the additions made in free agency of both Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to bolster the already strong offense.
In a division where the Mets seem to get a lot of the headlines surrounding pitching, let's not glance over the Phillies starting rotation. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola return to Philadelphia to provide a "one-two-punch" that is up there with the league's elite. The duo combined for 394.0 innings pitched last season and struck out 470 hitters.
As I mentioned, all of the N.L. East news seems to surround the New York Mets. And rightfully so, as they went out and signed Max Scherzer and traded for Chris Bassitt to round out a stacked starting rotation. And while the Mets are looking like a clear favorite to win the division, that doesn't mean the Phillies can sneak over their win total. The reigning champion Braves traded for Matt Olson, who will take over at first base for Freddie Freeman moving forward. They'll also get Ronald Acuna Jr. back, which is scary to think about, considering they were able to win the World Series without him in the lineup.
But, the Mets and Braves will only account for 38 of their 162 games. Another 38 will come against the Nationals and Marlins, who are stuck in baseball purgatory right now. Overall, the Phillies will be playing the underdog role in 2022 and I have them around the 84-86 win range and clearing their Vegas win total of 82.5 (-110).
NL Central: Cincinnati Reds Under 76.5 (-110, via Draftkings)
The Cincinnati Reds finished the 2021 season with an 83-79 record and that was good enough for third in the National League Central. Nick Castellanos was the main reason for the offensive production last season, slashing .309/.362/.576 and launching 34 longballs. But it was a quality lineup from top to bottom, and Cincinnati should be proud that they were able to play "above .500" baseball in a tough N.L. Central.
However, it’s clear that the Reds are not feeling that they can compete in the Central moving forward. They just made a trade with the Mariners that sent Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to Seattle in return for three players who are nowhere near capable of the production rate that Suarez and Winker are. The duo combined to blast 55 homers last season and drove in 150 RBIs. Seeing the departure of those two and Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati is going to take a serious blow offensively.
When it comes to pitching, the Reds will not be overly-feared by opposing teams. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle will sit atop the rotation and that's not nearly the arsenal they had toeing the rubber last season. Wade Miley is coming off of a career season with the Reds but he is departing for the Cubs while Sonny Gray just signed a contract with the Twins. Those are a couple of big strikes to the Cincinnati pitching staff.
It seems that the N.L. Central is a two-team race between the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers at this point. The Cubs are completely remodeled after dealing Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez, and Kris Bryant at the deadline last season. They can make some noise in the Central but likely won't compete for the division title.
I don't think we're in for a complete collapse of the Reds organization, but I do believe wins will be tough to come by in the N.L. Central. Luis Castillo had a down year in 2021 with an 8-16 record and a 3.98 ERA. Even if he's able to return to all-star form, he only throws every five games. You have to ask, "How are the Reds going to get 27 outs on a nightly basis and where will the run production come from?"
Take the under on the Cincinnati Reds win total at 76.5 (-110). I have them around the 71-73 win mark.
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks Under 65.5 (-110, via Draftkings)
2021 was a season to forget if you're an Arizona Diamondbacks fan. The Snakes finished with a 52-110 record, which saw them in the cellar of the National League West for a second consecutive season.
65.5 wins seems a little lofty for the Arizona Diamondbacks. There's really no star value on this team aside from Ketel Marte and maybe David Peralta. And who knows how long it will be until the front office moves them in exchange for prospects.
As for pitching, Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, and Merrill Kelly are set to headline Arizona's starting rotation. There's potential for this rotation to gain some steam, but it's more than likely not going to come to fruition - especially in the N.L. West. None of the top three starters for the Diamondbacks were able to finish with an ERA under 4.25 last season. Everyone has seen what Bumgarner is capable of, but he's a guy who thrives in an environment where there are high stakes. Unfortunately, Arizona isn't a destination where he's going to find those vibes. Heck, he may even be joining Ketel Marte on the trade block in 2022.
The National League West is one of the more top-heavy divisions in baseball. The Dodgers and Padres are set to contend for the division title in 2022 and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants find themselves within striking distance as well. The bottom line with the West is that you're either competing, or you're not. And the Diamondbacks are in the latter, along with the Rockies. Morale must be pretty low in Phoenix, especially with rumors every week about where Ketel Marte will land.
I see another season with north of 100 losses for Arizona, take the under on 65.5 wins for the Diamondbacks (-110).
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