2022 Music City Bowl: College Football Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Iowa vs. Kentucky)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Saturday, December 31. And here’s his best bet for the 2022 Music City Bowl.
- 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
- 2022 bowls (through Dec. 29): 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%)
- 2022 combined: 102-77-4 ATS (56.9%)
- 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Music City Bowl: College Football Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Iowa vs. Kentucky)
- Saturday, December 31 | 11:00 AM
- Iowa (-2) vs. Kentucky | Total: 31
- ATL: Iowa -5.0 | ATT: 26
Iowa Inactives
- QB Alex Padilla (Transfer portal)
- QB Spencer Petras (Injury)
- RB Gavin Williams (Transfer portal)
- WR Arland Bruce IV (Transfer portal)
- WR Keagan Johnson (Transfer portal)
- TE Sam LaPorta (Injury)
- OL Josh Volk (Transfer portal)
- LB Jestin Jacobs (Transfer portal)
- CB Cooper Dejean (Injury)
- CB Terry Roberts (Transfer portal)
- S Reggie Bracy (Transfer portal)
- S Kaevon Merriweather (Opt-out)
QB1 Petras has been shut down for the season with a shoulder injury. With QB2 Padilla also in the portal, Iowa will be down to QB3 Joey Labas, who has never attempted a pass. Labas will be backed up by QB4 Carson May.
WR Johnson transferred to Kansas State. LB Jacobs was a standout but got knocked out for the season with an injury in September – he committed to Oregon. CB Roberts played starter snaps through four games but walked away to retain a redshirt in 2022.
But it hasn’t all been bad news for the Hawkeyes. Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz says CB Cooper DeJean and TE Sam LaPorta are expected to return from injuries to play against Kentucky. Both were first-team All-Big Ten performers in 2022. LaPorta was one of three John Mackey Award finalists.
In addition to LaPorta, Iowa has been given several indications from 2023 NFL Draft prospects that they will indeed play in this game: LB Jack Campbell, CB Riley Moss, and LB Seth Benson.
S Merriweather, a two-star recruit who turned into a four-year contributor, was a standout starter and an all-American. He opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. He was No. 2 on the team with three interceptions during the regular season.
Kentucky Inactives
- QB Will Levis (Opt-out)
- RB Chris Rodriguez (Opt-out)
- RB Kavosiey Smoke (Transfer portal)
- RB Ramon Jefferson (Injury)
- WR Chris Lewis (Transfer portal/Injury)
- WR Chauncey Magwood (Transfer portal)
- WR DeMarcus Harris (Transfer portal)
- WR Tayvion Robinson (Injury)
- TE Keaton Upshaw (Transfer portal)
- OG John Young (Transfer portal)
- OT Kiyaunta Goodwin (Transfer portal)
- CB Carrington Valentine (Opt-out)
Kentucky will start either backup QB Kaiya Sheron or Destin Wade, with QB Levis out the door to prepare for the NFL Draft. Some consider Levis a top-three overall NFL Draft prospect. I do not – let’s return to that in the spring – but it’s indisputable that Kentucky will greatly miss him in this contest.
Wade has never started. Sheron went 15-of-27 for 178 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT rate in a 24-14 loss to South Carolina with Levis on the shelf in the fall. Earlier in December, some media members around the team expected Wade to start. The coaching staff won’t say but is now forwarding the idea that Wade could be used in sub-packages, which might be a hunt that Sheron will make his second start of the season.
The Wildcats made a big splash at that position in the portal by signing QB Devin Leary. Kentucky was one of the Power 5’s most-aggressive portal teams in December.
Kentucky’s methodical offense is going to miss RB Rodriguez – C-Rod was easily UK’s best offensive player. Despite being suspended for the first month of the season, Rodriguez finished with 904 rushing yards and six TD over the last eight games.
RB Smoke’s defection leaves the running back room very thin. RB Jefferson was knocked out for the season before it even started. RB Jutahn McClain (238 yards this season) will start. The Wildcats are praying McClain can handle bunches of touches without going down in this game.
WR Robinson was not UK’s most consistent receiver, but he was the team’s most dangerous after the catch. His status for this game is unclear due to an unknown injury. WRs Lewis, Magwood, and Harris, TE Upshaw, and OG Young were all reserves. CB Valentine declared for the NFL Draft and opted out of this game. Valentine, a two-year starter, was the team’s best cornerback.
Coaching news
Kentucky OC Rich Scangarello and RB coach/co-special teams coordinator John Settle were both fired after the regular season. The Wildcats tabbed associate HC and TE coach Vince Marrow as play-caller for the bowl. Marrow had a startling proclamation that he may come to regret: “We will score points.†To be fair, Marrow had some success as a play-caller in a 23-21 win over NC State in the 2020 Gator Bowl. Marrow mentioned that Eddie Gran will also aid in the play-calling preparation effort.
Handicap
Kentucky and Iowa both have top-six SP+ defenses. Each of them boasts top-13 tackle success rates. Both teams’ offenses rank outside the top 90 SP+. Kentucky plays at the slowest offensive pace in the nation, and Iowa is No. 112. Both of the offenses lost more to opt-outs and transfers than the respective defenses did.
So you can understand why this game has a chance to break the FBS record for the lowest point total. That’s the correct referendum from the market. My adjusted total on this game is 26.
With Iowa’s terrible offense down to its QB3 and playing without star TE LaPorta, Iowa’s going to skew even more conservative in the bowl. Expect lots of running. Kentucky’s run defense is decent, but it does have two bugaboos that could come into play here: The Wildcats get nicked for long runs (No. 106 explosion) and don’t often get TFL (No. 79 stuff rate).
Kentucky’s offense has a dilemma against Iowa’s No. 1 SP+ defense (the Hawkeyes lost only one standout to opt-out on this side of the ball). Assuredly, Kentucky’s preference would also be to skew as run-heavy as possible. But Kentucky will have precious little running back talent and experience available in the bowl due to opt-outs, transfers, and injuries.
But, of course, Iowa has the best pass defense in the nation. So does Kentucky prefer its backup quarterback throwing into that with a sub-par receiving corps? Or does it want to take its chances with four-stringers running into Iowa’s front?
Yards will be hard to come by for both teams. Very few points will be scored. Iowa has a trump card for a matchup like this: a top-five SP+ special teams unit and a field-position weapon in P Tory Taylor.
We like Iowa to pull out the win in an ugly, low-scoring hit-fest.
The pick: Iowa -2 | Under 31
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