2022 NFL Best Odds & Bets: To Make the Playoffs (AFC)
The NFL Draft is behind us, and that means — for the most part — we know what each NFL roster will look like heading into the summer.
The NFL has no true “off†season these days. But the quietest portion of the calendar starts once draft weekend concludes and goes all the way into training camp. No offense to rookie minicamps or OTAs, but those spring practices don’t get the juices flowing like when training camps open.
But this down period on the NFL calendar represents an excellent opportunity to pounce on fresh odds that could change significantly once training camp begins.
Check out our consensus 2022 To Make the Playoffs odds >>
We’ll focus on finding value on teams to make the playoffs out of the AFC for this piece. This is definitely a tricky task, as the AFC is loaded this season. With that said, here are the teams I’m honing in on to make the postseason:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens (-125)
Implied probability of making the postseason: 55.6%
The Baltimore Ravens are a team I’ll be buying on this season. Just about everything went wrong for them in 2021. It started with an outbreak of season-ending injuries in training camp and continued into the season. Star quarterback Lamar Jackson missed time, and the Ravens’ defense struggled to overcome its losses in the secondary.
Unless the organization is cursed, their injury luck can only improve entering 2022. This roster still has plenty of talent and took advantage of a down season by putting together an exceptional draft class. I also expect Jackson to return to his MVP form as he enters a critical juncture of his career. I don’t like to overestimate the power of a contract year, but it’s a motivator I certainly believe in.
Baltimore sat at 8-3 after Thanksgiving despite all of their preseason injuries. Back the Ravens to bounce back in 2022.
Las Vegas Raiders (+160)
Implied probability of making the postseason: 37.7%
The AFC West should be the most competitive division in the NFL this season. However, the oddsmakers seem to think the Raiders have a much worse chance of making the postseason than their division foes. Here are the odds for Vegas’ AFC West adversaries:
- Kansas City -220, 68.8% implied probability
- Denver -150, 60% implied probability
- Los Angeles -150, 60% implied probability
Yet here are the Raiders sitting at 37.7% implied probability. However, you could argue that the Raiders improved the most across the entire division by hiring Josh McDaniels and bringing in Davante Adams. The Vegas offense could be dynamic if everything comes together. And what’s forgotten is the Raiders also added star pass rusher, Chandler Jones, to pair with rising star Maxx Crosby.
The Chiefs have been the class of this division for years, and they’re still the team to beat. But that gap might be starting to shrink a bit. The Vegas roster is on par, if not better than Denver and Los Angeles.
This division will be a war, and I’m willing to take the value on the fourth-best odds in the group.
Miami Dolphins (+135)
Implied probability to make the postseason: 42.6%
The Dolphins are one of the most intriguing teams entering the 2022 season. They’ve got a new head coach in Kyle Shanahan disciple, Mike McDaniel. They could have the fastest receiver duo with Jaylen Waddle and the newly-acquired Tyreek Hill. And they beefed up their offensive line significantly by signing tackle Terron Armstead.
Betting on the Dolphins comes down to what you think of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. And I’m willing to bet that this new coaching staff will be the best thing to happen to Tua. Let’s face it, Brian Flores didn’t know how to oversee his offense, and he shattered Tagovailoa’s confidence early with frequent benchings. Oh, and he thought hiring co-offensive coordinators was a good idea at one point.
The arrival of McDaniel at least brings a system we’ve seen work, and it could play to Tua’s strengths. San Francisco’s passing game is predicated on getting the ball out quick to receivers in space. And while the Dolphins don’t have a Deebo Samuel wrecking ball after the catch, they have two burners in Waddle and Hill.
The arrow is pointing up on Miami. The division is Buffalo’s to lose. But Miami has as good a shot as anyone to secure a wild card berth.
Early Best Bets for Super Bowl 57 >>
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