2022 NFL Draft: 10 Best Bets for Draft Day
Today is beautiful. A gift from the football gawds.
It’s not just Day 1 of the 2022 NFL draft.
It’s so much more than that.
It’s the one day all year when every sharp mock drafter in the universe has an updated and fully informed Round 1 mock available for perusal. And I’ve surveyed them all. For your benefit. And for mine.
While I rely on my own research, I also take a "wisdom of the crowds" approach by surveying an index of mock drafts by experts whose predictions have previously proven actionable. I find that this curated collection gives me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player, pick or position.
Armed with this sharp index, I’ve sorted through the prop market and identified my 10 favorite bets for draft day.
Mock Drafts
- Version 1: Post-free agency
- Version 2: Post-Eagles & Saints trade
- Version 3: Mid-April
- Version 4: 10 days away
- Version 5: One week away
- Version 6: Week of draft
- Version 7: Day before draft
- Version 8: Day of draft
Over the past three years, I'm the No. 3 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest.
To see all the bets I've made, check out my NFL Draft prop card.
You can see the current odds for all the draft props in the market on our BettingPros odds page.
As I make more bets, I will post them first in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my draft bets as quickly as possible, join our Discord.
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Historically, I've done well betting on the draft.
- 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
- 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
- 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
2022 NFL Draft: 10 Best Bets for Draft Day
Cornerbacks in Round 1: Over 4.5
- Line: +120
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date: Apr. 28
- Units: 1
- Notes: In my sharp index, the mean and median are 5.0 for cornerbacks taken in Round 1 - plus there's the possibility (albeit remote) that safety Daxton Hill will be selected and announced as a cornerback due to his ability to play there in the slot.
Offensive Lineman in Round 1: Under 7.5
- Line: -205
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Date: Apr. 28
- Units: 1
- Notes: It’s not sexy to lay juice, but in this instance it offers expected value. Center Tyler Linderbaum is now in almost no sharp mocks, which means that under 7.5 offensive lineman hits in 92% of the sharp index.
Drake London: No. 1 Wide Receiver
- Line: +250
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date: Apr. 28
- Units: 1
- Notes: London is now the No. 1 wide receiver in the sharp index and is the first player drafted at his position in 52% of surveyed mocks.
Derek Stingley: No. 1 Cornerback
- Line: +140
- Sportsbook: FOXBet
- Date: Apr. 28
- Units: 1
- Notes: Stingley is now commonly mocked to the Texans at No. 3 and is the No. 1 corner selected in 64% of the sharp index.
Malik Willis: Selected by Steelers
- Line: +280
- Sportsbook: FOXBet
- Date: Apr. 26
- Units: 1
- Notes: Certainly a degree of groupthink exists in the mock draft space, but Willis lands with the Steelers in 84% of the sharp index. The Steelers need a quarterback, their interest in Willis is an open secret and he fits their draft range.
First Pick for Bills: Defensive Back
- Line: +160
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date: Apr. 28
- Units: 1
- Notes: I will be so tilted if the Bills select running back Breece Hall. They need a defensive back, and they are in the prime draft range for several cornerbacks and safeties. They go with a defensive back in 76% of the sharp index.
First Pick for Lions: Defensive Lineman or Edge
- Line: -500
- Sportsbook: FOXBet
- Date: Apr. 28
- Units: 1
- Notes: It would be wildly surprising if the Lions didn’t select Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux at No. 2. The Lions take one of them in 100% of the index.
Tyler Linderbaum: Over 30.5
- Line: -130
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- Date: April 28
- Units: 1.3
- Notes: Linderbaum is in almost no Round 1 mocks at this point, and if he does land in Round 1 the likeliest landing spot is the Bengals at No. 31.
Kenyon Green: Under 27.5
- Line: -110
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- Date: Apr. 28
- Units: 1.1
- Notes: The Patriots (21), Cardinals (23), Cowboys (24), Titans (26) and Buccaneers (27) are all realistic landing spots for Green, who goes under 27.5 in 80% of the sharp index.
Skyy Moore: Over 34.5
- Line: -115
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- Date: April 28
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: I love Moore, but he’s in zero sharp Round 1 mocks, so I’m skeptical he’ll go in the top three of Day 2. His Grinding the Mocks expected draft position (44.7) and NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board rank (46) compel me to bet the over.
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