2022 NFL Win Totals Bets: Top Odds, Picks & Predictions
Here are a few of my top 2022 NFL Win Totals bets, odds, picks & predictions. And you can find all of my favorite win totals to be here.
2022 NFL Win Totals Bets: Top Odds, Picks & Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5 Wins
I normally don’t bet overs, especially high overs. If you add up all the consensus win totals in the market, the number you get is 273.5 … but there are only 272 games in the regular season.
Unsurprisingly, the win total market is inflated: Casual fans tend to bet based on team allegiance, and that means sportsbooks can skew their numbers upward. Hence, unders tend to be sharper bets, and fewer overs offer value.
But I can’t help myself with the Chiefs, who are No. 2 in my power ratings. They lost WR Tyreek Hill in the offseason — as well as WRs Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson — but they brought in WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore to replace them, and they still have QB Patrick Mahomes.
Say whatever you want about his so-called struggles last year, but in 2021 the Chiefs were No. 1 in success rate (51.1%, per RBs Don’t Matter) with Mahomes, and since he entered the league he’s No. 1 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation (0.175). He’s still the best quarterback in the league (in my opinion).
And HC Andy Reid is still one of the best offensive play callers and overall coaches. In his nine years with the team, the Chiefs have failed to go over 10.5 wins just twice. And in each of Mahomes’ four seasons as the starter, the team has won 12-plus games.
If the market is skeptical on Mahomes and Reid, I’ll gladly back them.
Bet: Over 10.5, -115 (BetMGM)
Limit: -125
Tennessee Titans Under 9.5 Wins
Everything the Titans have done this offseason indicates that they are in the middle of a miniature rebuild.
They traded away WR A.J. Brown, their most talented young player. They drafted QB Malik Willis, a high-upside playmaker with the potential to replace (this year or next) aging starter Ryan Tannehill. They cut No. 1 CB Janoris Jenkins as well as No. 2 WR Julio Jones.
RB Derrick Henry is now 28 years old. He’s coming off an injury-impacted campaign, and his yards after contact per carry has dropped in each of the past two years (3.2 to 2.8 to 2.2, per our Advanced RB Stats Report). The offensive line, which was formerly a strength, is now a weakness, ranking No. 30 in our offensive line rankings after the offseason departures of RT David Quessenberry and LG Rodger Saffold. As good as Henry is, he might struggle with subpar blocking.
I believe the Titans have unquestionably gotten worse over the past year — while all three of their divisional opponents (Colts, Jaguars and Texans) have improved.
Bet: Under 9.5, -135 (FanDuel)
Limit: 8.5
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can start with our Beginner’s Guide to Daily Fantasy Football or head to a more advanced strategy - like A Guide to Orchestrating Early Season Trades - to learn more.