2022 Orange Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (Clemson vs. Tennessee)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Orange Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Orange Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (Clemson vs. Tennessee)
Miami Gardens, FL | Friday, December 30 | 7:00 PM
Clemson (-5) vs. Tennessee | Total: 63.5
ATL: Clemson -7.5 | ATT: 70
Tennessee
QB Hendon Hooker (Injury)
WR Jalin Hyatt (Opt-out)
WR Cedric Tillman (Opt-out)
WR Jimmy Calloway (Transfer portal)
WR Jimmy Holiday (Transfer portal)
TE Miles Campbell (Transfer portal)
DT Jordan Phillips (Transfer portal)
LB Jeremy Banks (Opt-out)
CB Warren Burrell (Injury)
QB1 Hooker is out for the year with a torn ACL. QB2 Joe Milton went 11-of-21 for 147 passing yards in the finale against Vanderbilt. Milton flamed out at Michigan and lost his starting job at Tennessee to Hooker almost immediately after winning it out of camp. Milton is a physically gifted quarterback who lacks accuracy and has the propensity to make wonky decisions.
WR Hyatt and Tillman declared for the NFL Draft in mid-December and opted out of the bowl game. Tillman had 64 receptions for 1,081 yards and 12 TD last year and then 15 catches for 230 receiving yards and a TD in Tennessee’s first two games this season. But Tillman suffered an ankle injury the following week and missed a month-and-a-half of game action. He played in three games at the end of the regular season.
With Tillman on the shelf, WR Hyatt became one of the nation’s most dangerous slot receivers. Hyatt posted a 67-1267-15 and broke the single-season Tennessee record for TD catches. He’s a top-50 possibility in the spring.
LB Banks, a two-year starter, declared for the draft and opted out. He was Tennessee’s best blitzing linebacker. In 11 games this fall, he posted 53 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and eight hurries. CB Burrell was a Week 1 starter but was lost for the season in September with an upper-body injury.
Stud OT Darnell Wright and starting DE Byron Young declared for the NFL Draft, but each said they will play in this game.
Clemson
QB DJ Uiagalelei (Transfer portal)
RB Kobe Pace (Transfer portal)
WR Beaux Collins (Injury)
WR Decari Collins (Transfer portal)
WR EJ Williams (Transfer portal)
EDGE Myles Murphy (Opt-out)
EDGE Xavier Thomas (Injury)
EDGE Justin Foster (Unknown)
EDGE Kevin Swint (Transfer portal)
LB Sergio Allen (Transfer portal)
LB Vonta Bentley (Transfer portal)
LB Trenton Simpson (Opt-out)
CB Malcolm Greene (Injury)
CB Fred Davis II (Transfer portal)
The Cole Klubnik kicks off officially in the bowl game. Klubnik relieved a struggling Uiagalelei in the ACC title game against UNC and led Clemson to the win. This spurred DJU’s transfer decision. Clemson is the only team I upgraded in power rankings due to a quarterback change for the bowl – Klubnik is better and probably has been since the day he stepped on campus. QB Hunter Johnson is now listed as Klubnik’s backup.
RB Pace was third on the depth chart prior to entering the transfer portal. Clemson now lists RB Domonique Thomas RB3 behind Will Shipley and Phil Mafah. WR Beaux Collins recently underwent surgery and is done for the season. The Tigers’ receiving room has taken a hit along with the defections of WRs Decari Collins and EJ Williams. In bowl practices, Joseph Ngata, Adam Randall, and Antonio Williams have been working as the starters. WRs Brannon Spector and Cole Turner will rotate in behind them. Clemson doesn’t have much behind those five.
DE Murphy and LB Simpson opted out and declared for the NFL Draft in mid-December. Murphy is ranked by ESPN’s Matt Miller as the No. 5 overall player in the draft. Murphy, a first-team All-ACC honoree in 2022, posted 36 TFL and 18.5 sacks over three years.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. ranks LB Simpson as the No. 3 inside linebacker in the upcoming draft. The 6-foot-3, 225-pounder is expected to run a 4.4 forty and reach 40 inches in the vertical. Last year, as a sophomore, Simpson posted 12.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks. This year, Simpson led the ACC in competition percentage against (18.8%) in coverage and also pressure rate (14%).
The good news for Clemson? DT Bryan Bresee, DE K.J. Henry, DE Justin Mascoll, and DT Tyler Davis are all practicing and have said they plan to play in the bowl game. But with DE Thomas out for the year with a foot injury and DE Foster with an unknown ailment, Clemson is thin at DE behind Henry and Mascoll.
EDGE Swint, LB Allen, LB Bentley, CB Greene, and CB Davis were all backups. Greene was knocked out for the season last month with a groin injury.
Coaching news
Tennessee OC/TE coach Alex Golesh left to become South Florida’s new HC. Vols HC Josh Heupel will likely call plays in the bowl.
Handicap
Clemson has more opting-out, and two may go in the first round in April. But make no mistake: Tennessee is far more compromised heading into this game.
The Vols lost a potential Heisman finalist when QB Hooker was lost for the season, the Biletnikoff Award winner in WR Hyatt, a potential Round 1 WR talent in Cedric Tillman, and two defensive starters.
The Vols’ offense, six weeks ago was one of the most dangerous in America, is now merely solid. Nothing special. And now it’s going up against a top-25 SP+ defense.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s offense has actually been upgraded since the end of the season. Because not only did it not lose an important piece, but it has made an enormous upgrade at quarterback, going from Uiagalelei to Klubnik.
It’s criminal that HC Dabo Swinney did not make that change earlier in the season. Klubnik came off the bench in the ACC title game – with UNC leading 7-0 – to go 20-for-24 for 279 yards and a TD with a second rushing TD to lead Clemson to a 39-10 blowout win.
This is a problem for the Vols. Because while the Vols have a very strong run defense, Tennessee’s pass defense is an abomination (No. 105 success rate, No. 119 efficiency). Klubnik is going to carve up that soft secondary.
The Klubnik Era kicks off with a bang – a double-digit win over the Vols, setting the stage for Clemson’s 2023 CFP run.
The pick: Clemson -5
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