2022 Peach Bowl: College Football Semifinal Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Georgia vs. Ohio State)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Saturday, December 31. And here’s his best bet for the 2022 Peach Bowl.
- 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
- 2022 bowls (through Dec. 29): 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%)
- 2022 combined: 102-77-4 ATS (56.9%)
- 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Peach Bowl: College Football Semifinal Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Georgia vs. Ohio State)
- Saturday, December 31 | 7:00 PM
- Georgia (-6) vs. Ohio State | Total: 62
- ATL UGA -6.8 | ATT: 64
Ohio State Inactives
- RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injury)
- RB Evan Pryor (Injury)
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Injury)
- OG Matt Jones (Injury)
- LB Teradja Mitchell (Transfer portal)
RB Henderson will miss the CFP after announcing on Dec. 13 that he would undergo season-ending foot surgery. Banged up throughout the campaign – he’d been playing through a fracture and torn ligament in his foot since September – Henderson missed three of the last four regular season games. Henderson ran for 1,248 yards with 15 TD last season.
OSU RB2 Williams was able to return from a right leg injury to play against Michigan in the finale. Like Henderson, Williams dealt with injuries all season. Williams, who also came down with a stomach bug in the week lead-in to this game, will play, per OSU HC Ryan Day.
The Buckeyes’ RB depth has been an issue all season after previous RB3 Pryor was knocked out for the season before it began in August. If Williams is compromised in any way whatsoever, Ohio State’s run game is in trouble. Chip Trayanum and Dallan Hayden are the only other viable rushing options on the roster.
Also out for the bowl is WR Smith-Njigba, whose season is over due to his problematic hamstring. Smith-Njigba will now try to rehab in advance of the pre-Draft process. Smith-Njigba posted a ridiculous 95-1606-9 receiving line in 2021 before a lost campaign in 2022.
Starting OG Jones missed the Michigan game with an injury – it’s unclear if he’ll be able to return for the CFP. LB Mitchell played only one defensive snap in the fall.
Georgia Inactives
- WR Ladd McConkey (Injury)
- TE Arik Gilbert (Undisclosed)
- OG Tate Ratledge (Injury)
- OT Warren McClendon (Injury)
- DT Bill Norton (Transfer portal)
- EDGE Nolan Smith (Injury)
- S Dan Jackson (Injury)
WR McConkey left the SEC title game with a knee injury. OT McClendon was also injured in that game. It’s unclear if either will be able to return for the tilt with the Buckeyes.
OG Ratledge is playing through shoulder pain – his status likely isn’t affected for the CFP unless a serious aggravation of the injury occurs. TE Gilbert has scarcely played this season and isn’t likely to see the field in the CFP.
EDGE Smith was the team’s best edge-rusher. He suffered a pectoral tear against Florida and is out for the season. Smith was Georgia’s second-best defender to DT Jalen Carter by any measure you choose – PFF grade, NFL scouts’ words, the eyeball test, et al.
S Jackson is presumed out for the season with a foot injury. He had posted a sterling 80.7 PFF grade in 126 snaps before going down in October. DT Norton played only 46 snaps off the bench – he transferred to Arizona.
Handicap
Above, I mentioned that Michigan’s run defense is top-two quality in the nation. That’s because the Georgia Bulldogs are No. 1 in that area (No. 3 success rate, No. 4 efficiency, No. 30 explosion).
Ohio State’s offense will be one-dimensional and predictable in this game. With OSU RB1 Henderson out, RB2 Willams less than 100 percent, and the depth beyond that compromised, Ohio State figures to use the run as a changeup pitch in this game while skewing extremely pass-heavy. During the regular season, the Buckeyes were very balanced.
Much of this game, then, will come down to whether OSU QB CJ Stroud and WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka can consistently move the ball through the air. Without OSU WR Smith-Njigba this year, Harrison and Egbuka have been a two-man show. They combined for a 138-2196-21 receiving line through the first 12 games. No other OSU pass-catcher has more than 35 catches, and only two have more than 10.
One thing OSU will have going for them in this area: Stroud will have time to throw. Georgia doesn’t blitz much (neither does OSU), and the Buckeyes’ offense ranks top five in opposing sack rate, anyway.
One thing Georgia has going for them: Bulldogs nickel CB Javon Bullard has been fabulous in coverage this fall. Of all FBS corners who played at least 280 coverage snaps, Bullard ranked No. 17 in coverage grade. Bullard gave up only 187 receiving yards on 45 targets this fall.
He’s also an extremely reliable tackler, preventing YAC opportunities but also protecting the perimeter on wide runs. Of the 16 players ranked above him in coverage grade, only two had a lower missed-tackle rate than Bullard.
Bullard will be on WR Egbuka all game. If Bullard can handle him, it’ll put all the more pressure on OSU WR Harrison, whose 2022 regular season work was graded No. 3 out of 1,045 graded receivers. Harrison will be trailed by UGA CB Kellee Ringo.
Ringo had an up-and-down season, with his missed-tackle rate and penalties taken both doubling from last year. But he’s the sort of guy you’d want on the 6-foot-3, 205-pound Harrison. Ringo, 6’2/210, is a prototypical NFL-style boundary corner who allowed an opposing NFL passer rating of less than 66.0 in both of his active seasons. Ringo, a redshirt sophomore, is the No. 5 CB in the 2023 NFL Draft class, per ESPN’s Mel Kiper.
For whatever it’s worth, Georgia has reliable safety play and a very-good CB2 on the opposite side of Ringo in ​​Kamari Lassiter. Lassiter will mostly draw OSU WR3 Julian Fleming, who was a bit of a disappointment with increased snaps in the wake of JSN’s inactivity this fall.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia has more of a downhill, physical ethos in contrast to OSU’s finesse spread-and-speed machinations. But the Bulldogs actually had an extremely similar run/pass balance to OSU during the regular season. Unlike OSU, Georgia can remain multiple in this game.
The strength of OSU’s defense is up the middle – DT Michael Hall Jr., LB Tommy Eichenberg, and FS Ronnie Hickman all grade top 60 at their positions (the latter two are top 15). The Buckeyes also have a pair of strong DEs in Zach Harrison and Jack Sawyer.
You try to attack the Buckeyes by targeting the other defenders. OSU’s corners can be had, as Michigan QB JJ McCarthy could tell you. UGA QB Stetson Bennett has been fabulous this year, ranking No. 18 in PFF grade among qualifiers.
Bennett also ranked top 20 in adjusted accuracy, the lowest rate of turnover-worth plays, the quickest average time to throw on dropbacks, and the lowest percentage of pressures turned into sacks. Bennett doesn’t look like much, and he doesn’t have a howitzer.
But Bennett gets the ball out on time and on the money – neutering the opposing pass rush while giving his receivers ample YAC opportunities – and also takes care of the ball. If your pass rush does get home, Bennett is one of the best in the nation at making the first guy miss to extend the play and make a throw.
Ohio State’s pass defense ranks a strong No. 17 in success rate but a rancid No. 116 in explosion allowed. Georgia’s passing offense ranks No. 1 and No. 87 in those categories, respectively. It’ll be interesting to see if the Bulldogs will be willing to trade some of that efficiency for more deep shots than normal – those should be there.
Ohio State’s run defense is better than its pass defense. But the Buckeyes also give up too many long runs (No. 41 explosion). OSU could battle Georgia’s fabulous run offense to more or less of a draw for large portions of the game, but it will all be for not if the Bulldogs can find the explosive runs that Michigan RB Donovan Edwards did. UGA ranked No. 32 in rushing explosion during the fall.
I simply don’t trust this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes have played only two SP+ top-25 teams – they beat Penn State 44-31 but were blown out at home 45-23 by Michigan. By contrast, four of OSU’s 12 opponents were ranked No. 80 lower SP+. OSU is a flawed team.
I do trust UGA HC Kirby Smart – career 6-2 ATS in postseason games – in these spots. And Georgia, by contrast, played six top-25 SP+ teams. The Bulldogs beat all six by double digits, five-of-six by 14 or more, four-of-six by 20 or more, and two-of-six by 41 or more.
The defending champ Georgia Bulldogs advance to the title game by smashing Ohio State by double-digits.
The pick: Georgia -6
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