2022 Pinstripe Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Thursday (Minnesota vs. Syracuse)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Pinstripe Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Pinstripe Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Thursday (Minnesota vs. Syracuse)
Bronx, NY | Thursday, December 29 | 1:00 PM
Minnesota (-10) vs. Syracuse | Total: 42
ATL: Minny -13.5 | ATT: 40
Syracuse
RB Sean Tucker (Opt-out)
FB Chris Elmore (Injury)
WR Courtney Jackson (Transfer portal)
WR Isaiah Jones (Injury)
WR Anthony Queeley (Transfer portal)
OT Matthew Bergeron (Opt-out)
DT Terry Lockett (Injury)
DE Steve Linton (Transfer portal)
EDGE Stefon Thompson (Injury)
CB Garrett Williams (Injury)
CB Darian Chestnut (Transfer portal)
S Ja’Had Carter (Transfer portal)
RB Tucker is an enormous loss. A second-team AP All-American in 2021, Tucker posted 3,804 scrimmage yards and 31 total TD during his career. He was a first-team All-ACC pick last year and a second-team All-ACC selection in 2022. An explosive back who could threaten the high-4.3s in the forty, Tucker is likely to be a Day 2 pick in the spring.
The offense suffered another big blow on Dec. 20 when starting LT Bergeron entered the 2023 NFL draft and announced he wouldn’t play in the Pinstripe Bowl. Lauded by scouts for his length, movement, and four-year-starter experience, Bergeron is the No. 5 tackle in Mel Kiper Jr.’s position rankings.
WR Jackson had 15 catches, and DE Linton posted six TFL this season, each in timeshares.
CB Williams was a standout starter until being lost for the season in Game 7 with a knee injury – he’s off to the NFL. CB Chestnut was the team’s best cover corner in the fall – he’s portal-bound.
CB Jeremiah Wilson entered the transfer portal but pulled out and returned – he’s likely to see the field plenty in the bowl due to the aforementioned losses. Unfortunately, starting S Carter has also moved on.
FB Elmore (16 snaps), WR Jones (69), WR Queeley (27), DT Lockett (92), and EDGE Thompson (22) didn’t factor in much this fall and are all out for the bowl. Elmore, a skilled fullback whose season was wrecked by health, declared for the draft.
Minnesota
QB Tanner Morgan (Injury)
WR Chris Autman-Bell (Injury)
DT Gage Keys (Transfer portal)
EDGE Austin Booker (Transfer portal)
LB Braelen Oliver (Transfer portal)
CB Jalen Glaze (Transfer portal)
S Michael Dixon (Transfer portal)
S Steven Ortiz (Transfer portal)
QB Morgan hasn’t played in over a month with what is suspected to be his second concussion of the season. HC PJ Fleck has not addressed his bowl status. If Morgan can’t go, QB2 Athan Kaliakmanis will draw his fourth-straight start and fifth of the season.
I’m told that Morgan has been an extremely limited participant in bowl practices but has not been ruled out internally. One idea that was forwarded to me is that Morgan could be given limited snaps in the game if he is able to go as a sort-of farewell in his last collegiate game.
LB Oliver and S Dixon were key contributors on defense. WR Autman-Bell was the Gophers’ best receiver prior to undergoing season-ending surgery in October – that development left Minnesota’s receiving corps decimated (the Gophers moved aggressively to address that in the portal over the past few weeks, signing two projected starting WRs).
DT Keys, EDGE Booker, CB Glaze, and S Ortiz were all reserves.
Coaching News
Syracuse OC Robert Anae left for the same job at NC State. Syracuse responded by elevating QB coach Jason Beck to OC. Beck will call plays in the bowl. Syracuse DC Tony White left for the same job at Nebraska.
Minnesota RB coach Kenni Burns left to become Kent State’s new head coach. Burns had also been Minnesota’s assistant HC since 2019. Burns first joined Fleck’s staff as RB coach at Western Michigan, so this is a MAC homecoming of sorts for him.
Handicap
Syracuse started 6-0, then lost five straight before beating Boston College in the finale. Since then, the Orange has been decimated by opt-outs.
RB Tucker and LT Bergeron’s defections hurt the most. Over the first six weeks of the season, Syracuse was dangerous because opposing defenses couldn’t stop the Orange’s up-tempo offense.
Without Tucker, the running game falls off the shelf. In the past few years, during instances when Syracuse’s running game hasn’t been working, the aerial attack disappears in kind. Minnesota, which boasts the No. 5 SP+ defense, shouldn’t have any problem shutting down a Tucker-less Syracuse offense.
Slowing down Minnesota’s offense is also pretty straightforward: You just need to stop the run. Easier said than done against Gophers RB Mo Ibrahim – but that’s the path. Unfortunately for Syracuse, the Orange’s run defense is rancid (No. 122 success rate).
Minnesota’s rushing offense ranks No. 24 in the same category and top-5 in both power success rate and stuff rate. Syracuse went 7-0 when it gave up less than 150 yards and 0-6 when it gave up more. The Gophers are going to run for more than 150 yards. Ibrahim has a decent shot to get there by himself.
Syracuse’s pass defense was way better than its run defense in the regular season, but that unit took a hit with defections. Minnesota may not even have to test it if Ibrahim is humming as expected.
While Syracuse struggled in the second half of the season, Minnesota closed the campaign by winning four of five, earning HC PJ Fleck an extension. Fleck is 3-0 career in bowl games. We think he improves that mark to 4-0 here, with Minnesota blowing out Syracuse.
The pick: Minnesota -10
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