2022 Sugar Bowl: College Football Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Alabama vs. Kansas State)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Saturday, December 31. And here’s his best bet for the 2022 Sugar Bowl.
- 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
- 2022 bowls (through Dec. 29): 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%)
- 2022 combined: 102-77-4 ATS (56.9%)
- 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Sugar Bowl: College Football Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Alabama vs. Kansas State)
- Saturday, December 31 | 11:00 AM
- Alabama (-7) vs. Kansas State | Total: 56
- ATL: Bama -3.3 | ATT: 56.5
Alabama Inactives
- RB Trey Sanders (Transfer portal)
- WR Traeshon Holden (Transfer portal)
- WR Christian Leary (Transfer portal)
- WR JoJo Earle (Transfer portal)
- WR Aaron Anderson (Transfer portal)
- OG Javion Cohen (Transfer portal)
- OG Tanner Bowles (Transfer portal)
- OT Amari Knight (Transfer portal)
- OT Tommy Brockermeyer (Transfer portal)
- OT Damieon George Jr. (Transfer portal)
- DT Justin Eboigbe (Injury)
- LB Demouy Kennedy (Injury)
- CB Khyree Jackson (Transfer portal/Suspension)
Alabama got hit hard by transfer defections.
But the Tide got sensational news on Dec. 16 when HC Nick Saban announced no player is expected to opt out of the bowl game. The list of possibilities he was alluding to includes QB Bryce Young, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, EDGE Will Anderson, CB Malachi Moore, S Jordan Battle and S Brian Branch. Those players all took part in bowl practices and are expected to play.
OG Cohen – off to TCU – was a starter and an above-average one at that. WR Holden played 308 snaps as part of the receiver rotation and WR Earle played 223 (Nos. 4 and 6 among the WR corps in snaps). EDGE Eboigbe was the only other portal defection who played over 100 snaps in the fall (117).
DL Eboigbe and LB Kennedy are out for the season with injuries.
Kansas State Inactives
- QB Adrian Martinez (Injury)
- WR Malik Knowles (Injury)
- LB Krew Jackson (Transfer portal)
- CB Ekow Boye-Doe (Injury)
- CB TJ Smith (Transfer portal)
QB Martinez is reportedly close to a return, but he hasn’t played in over a month and is likely covered in rust. K-State will likely roll with QB Will Howard regardless. Howard is the clearly superior passer. If Martinez can play, though, watch for him as a running option in sub-packages.
WR Knowles and CB Boye-Doe both suffered injuries in the Big 12 title game. Each is expected to play, however.
CB Smith, who played 201 snaps as a rotational nickel defender, had one of the defense’s worst PFF grades (55.9). LB Jackson was a little-used backup.
Coaching news
Alabama S coach Charles Kelly left to become Colorado’s DC under Coach Prime.
Handicap
Much has been made of Alabama’s veteran stars electing to play. It’s the reason this line has shot all the way up to Bama -7 as of publication time. It feels like this has opened a window of opportunity for the under-discussed underdogs.
Kansas State is a run-first offense that has one of the 25-highest run rates in the nation. When the ‘Cats throw, they funnel lots of touches to the RBs and TEs, while taking play-action shots downfield to the boundary receivers when the numbers are on their side.
To shut down KSU’s offense, you must greatly slow down star RB Deuce Vaughn. It’s the only way. Unfortunately, Alabama doesn’t project to do this.
The Tide’s run defense – No. 81 success rate and No. 99 efficiency – is poor. Not surprisingly, K-State is very good on third-and-short, while Alabama’s defense isn’t. But it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Bama forces a bevy of the third-and-medium/longs that KSU can languish in if the Tide are unable to slow Vaughn and company.
On the other side, KSU’s very strong pass defense can address Bama star QB Bryce Young’s aerial machinations. The Tide rank No. 19 and 17, respectively, in passing success rate and efficiency. KSU’s defense ranks Nos. 29 and 28, respectively, in those categories. It’s easier to run on KSU… but Bama is as pass-happy as KSU is run-happy, and that isn’t likely to change for this one.
Even with the Tide at full strength, I think the underdog Wildcats match up well with them. This isn’t the Alabama teams of the past few years – it’s flawed, and the Wildcats have a knack for exposing the weaknesses of teams like that. KSU HC Chris Klieman is 12-6-1 ATS career in postseason games. Kansas State is a live ‘dog here.
The pick: Kansas State +7
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts