2022 Sun Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (UCLA vs. Pittsburgh)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30. And here’s a closer look at the 2022 Sun Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
2022 Sun Bowl College Football Best Bets, Odds & Predictions: Friday (UCLA vs. Pittsburgh)
El Paso, TX | Friday, December 30 | 1:00 PM
UCLA (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh | Total: 54.5
ATL: UCLA -16.1 | ATT: 60
Pittsburgh
QB Kedon Slovis (Transfer portal)
QB Nick Patti (Injury)
QB Nate Yarnell (Illness)
RB Izzy Abanikanda (Opt-out)
WR Jaylon Barden (Transfer portal)
WR Jaden Bradley (Transfer portal)
WR Jared Wayne (?)
OT Gabe Houy (Opt-out)
OT Carter Warren (Opt-out/Injury)
DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
EDGE John Morgan III (Transfer portal)
EDGE Nate Temple (Injury)
EDGE Sam Williams (Transfer portal)
EDGE Deslin Alexandre (Opt-out)
EDGE Habakkuk Baldonado (Injury)
LB SirVocea Dennis (Opt-out)
S Brandon Hill (Opt-out)
S Judson Tallandier II (Transfer portal)
QB1 Slovis is looking for a new home in the transfer portal. QB2 Patti, hampered by a leg injury for most of the campaign, is the leader in the clubhouse to make the start based on the team’s most-recent bowl practices.
HC Pat Narduzzi recently told the media that Patti and QB3 Nate Yarnell have been going head-to-head in practices to determine the bowl starter. But Yarnell, who did not attempt a pass this season, has been under the weather with an unspecified illness, allowing Patti to seize the early lead in the open competition. Over his four-year career, Patti is 51-for-87 for 558 yards and a 4/1 TD/INT rate.
Pitt skewed more towards the run this fall thanks to the breakout of RB Abanikanda, a first-team All-ACC selection. But Abanikanda, who led the ACC in rushing with 1,431 yards, has also opted out. The only silver lining here is that Pitt’s RB room was arguably the deepest on the team: RBs Rodney Hammond Jr., C’Bo Flemister, and Vincent Davis aren’t as talented as Abanikanda, but they’ll make up a solid three-headed monster in the bowl.
Unfortunately, the offensive line they’ll be running behind took a shot when OTs Houy and Warren opted out (Warren may not have been able to play due to injury anyway). Warren began the year as the starting LT. When he got hurt in Week 4, Houy entered the lineup at RT, with Matt Goncalves shifting to LT. We know Pitt will be down to OT4 at right tackle (Branson Taylor?).
Currently, it does appear that Pitt’s interior offensive line will be intact for the bowl. Starting senior LG Marcus Minor confirmed he would play in the game. He’ll be joined by C1 Jake Kradel and RG Blake Zubovic in the starting lineup to his right, with C2 Owen Drexel the interior insurance policy (Kradel shifts to guard when Drexel enters the game).
WRs Barden and Bradley each played off the bench, but their losses are more depth-related. WR Wayne has made no announcement, but it felt a bit ominous when Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi declined to comment on his bowl status when asked by the media. Wayne was the offense’s second-best player behind Abanikanda this fall.
Pitt’s defense lost even more talent to defections than its offense.
DT Kancey, an All-American, had been out with a shoulder injury. He decided to shut it out to begin NFL Draft preparations. Kancey is an elite defender who posted a 91.5 PFF grade this fall.
DE Morgan got big interest in the portal immediately after entering – he’s expected to garner a six-figure NIL package. Morgan’s Pitt career ended with 14.5 sacks. He posted a 77.5 PFF grade in the fall.
DE Alexandre, who posted 8.5 hurries and 5.5 sacks this fall, opted out to begin draft prep, as did starting ILB Dennis, a first-team all-ACC selection. Dennis previously was relied on to make Pitt’s pre-snap calls on defense.
With cluster defections along the defensive EDGE, Pitt could really use DE Baldonado. But Baldonado missed the past few games of the regular season and has accepted an invite to the Shrine Game – his status for this game is unknown.
SS Hill is another starter who opted out to declare for the NFL Draft. Hill was more of a workmanlike solid starter. The only good news on defense is that starting nickel Erick Hallett II – who declared for the draft – announced he would play in this game.
This is a metric ton of vacated talent and production lost. Not only is Pitt out a small handful of starters on both sides of the ball, but it will also be playing without all four of its captains (Slovis, Warren, Alexandre, Dennis).
UCLA
QB Chase Artopoeus (Transfer portal)
DT Martin Andrus Jr. (Injury)
DT Hayden Harris (Transfer portal)
CB Kobey Fitzgerald (Transfer portal)
DT Andrus Jr., a valued rotational piece on the defensive line, was lost for the season in September to a leg injury. The others listed above were scantily-used.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, RB Zach Charbonnet, and WR Jake Bobo are all status checks on the Bruins’ side. That trio has all been practicing in advance of this bowl game. None have officially stated one way or the other whether they will play as of this update on Dec. 22.
On that day, Dec. 22, I asked a source close to the situation to peg the odds of those three playing. The response I got?: 75% for DTR, 10% for Charbonnet, and 100% for Bobo. This source told me that he believes Thompson-Robinson and Bobo will ultimately decide to play but guessed that Charbonnet would ultimately decide against it. To repeat: This was one informed source’s estimation of the current situation as of early-afternoon Dec. 22.
I should add another thing: My adjusted line above covers all “official†opt-out information listed above — those have been accounted for. It does not include modifications for the guys who haven’t announced yet.
If or when UCLA has opt-outs – and/or if Pitt has any additional ones – my adjusted line will shift. But I’ll add this: It would take more than the opt-outs of DTR, Charbonnet, and Bobo for my adjusted line to get down to what sportsbooks are currently offering on the Bruins.
Coaching news
UCLA DC ​​Bill McGovern has missed five-straight games with a health issue.
Handicap
I’m in a Twitter DM thread with a bunch of professional bettors and writers that handicap. We share information and takes on games. On Dec. 22, when this spread had dropped all the way to UCLA -3.5, I wrote the following in that thread:
“The line move down to UCLA -3.5 makes zero sense. Only line on the bowl slate I can’t make heads or tails of. UCLA isn’t officially out anyone of substance yet that I know of. Pitt is already officially out a large percentage of their best players … If UCLA doesn’t have any opt-outs, this line, objectively, should be around UCLA -17. I’m just wondering what I’m missing here. it would take more than DTR/Charb/Bobo all opting out to have the reality of this situation match the line that is available. So I’m just scratching my head… do some huge hitters out there have information that literally nobody else does, or is the market just this badly off/uninformed about this one game?â€
As you can probably tell by the tone of the above, I laid the lumber on UCLA -3.5 that day – after hearing back from a source near the UCLA program that gave me the above information regarding the Bruins’ opt-out picture.
As of publication time, none of those UCLA players have opted out, and this line is up to UCLA -5.5. If there are still no opt-outs by kickoff, I would expect it to be UCLA -7 or higher. And I would still bet on the Bruins.
If both of these teams had been full-strength for this game, my line would have been UCLA -4.2. But they aren’t. Not even close. Pittsburgh’s roster has been severely decimated. Numerous position groups will be starting backups or third-stringers.
Meanwhile, UCLA appears to be still at full strength. And if that’s the case, it’s because veterans like QB Thompson and RB Charbonnet want to go out with a bang. I think they will. Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi, who is only 1-4 ATS career in bowls, doesn’t have the personnel to be viable here.
Bruins in a rout.
The pick: UCLA -5.5
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