2023 3M Open: PGA First-Round Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions

With the rain, wind, and moderate temperatures of England and the last major of the year behind us, the heat and humidity of summer in the United States will test the field at this week’s 3M Open. Temperatures in the high 90’s with heat indexes over 100, players will have to find ways to keep cool instead of dry this week at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.

With only two weeks left before the playoffs start, a few big names have decided to tee it up this week in hopes of improving their position in the FedEx Cup standings. The top 70 players on the list will move on to the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and Justin Thomas is one of the big names trying to get there. If he’s going to accomplish that goal, Thomas and the rest of the field will have to make their way around the 7,431-yard par 71 course that will host this event for the fifth year in a row. Who will beat the heat and take a step toward the postseason? We’ll find out Sunday, but in the meantime, let’s take a look at who might be atop the leaderboard after play on Thursday.

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2023 3M Open Best First-Round Leader Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ludvig Aberg (40-1)

The top amateur in the world a year ago, Ludvig Aberg has announced his presence on tour since the start. Aberg has missed just one cut in his first ten starts as a professional, has three top-25 and one top-ten finish already. The bomber who hails from Sweden by way of Texas Tech figures to have a long and prosperous career on tour. While he can’t get in the playoffs this year, the 23-year-old can play spoiler and grab some valuable FedEx Cup points that someone else could desperately use. With an opening round 65 at the John Deere Classic and a second round 64 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Aberg has shown the ability to go low already. He’s worth backing to be leading after the first round.

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J.T. Poston (60-1)

One of the players who is currently in the playoffs and needs to play well over the next two weeks to cement his spot is J.T. Poston. The North Carolina native currently sits 60th on the FedEx Cup points list, largely thanks to the five top-tens he already has under his belt this season. One of my favorite picks to win this week, the East Carolina alum has a pair of T-6 finishes in his last two starts here in the U.S. and he seems to like it here. In two starts, Poston finished T-28 and last year improved to T-11. With the playoffs in sight, expect Poston to come out firing this week, and could very well be at the top of the leaderboard Thursday night.

Doug Ghim (75-1)

Doug Ghim is no stranger to hot weather conditions. The teammate of Scottie Scheffler at the University of Texas teed it up in the Austin heat while in college so the high temps shouldn’t affect the 27-year-old’s game. Aside from a missed cut at the Scottish Open, for which he gets a pass in my book, Ghim has made six straight cuts and finished no worse than T-33. Over that stretch, the sixth-year pro has fired opening rounds in the 60’s three times, including a 65 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. If Ghim can keep that momentum going, there’s a good chance he’ll be leading the pack after the first 18 holes of play.