2023 3M Open: PGA Head-to-Head Matchup Odds, Picks & Predictions

There are just two weeks left before the tour’s regular season comes to a close and the playoffs begin. The top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup points standings will make the field for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Names like Justin Thomas and Billy Horschel, who are currently outside the top 70 in the standings, have decided to tee it up for the first time in this event, hoping to play their way into the playoff field.

In order to get there, Thomas and the rest of the field will have to withstand soaring temperatures all week on the 7,341 yard, par 71 TPC Twin Cities course. Aside from the heat, the field will have to deal with smaller greens than they’re used to on tour, and several doglegs that will require some strategic play off the tee. The rough at TPC Twin Cities won’t be crucial to avoid, so the longer hitters should have an advantage this week. There are some great options on the board this week when you consider all these factors, so let’s get to the picks.

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2023 3M Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Doug Ghim vs. Lee Hodges

University of Texas alum, and teammate of Scottie Scheffler in Austin, Doug Ghim is starting to play like he belongs on tour. Excluding the Genesis Scottish Open, the 27-year old has finished T-33 or better in six straight starts. Ghim is used to the extreme heat, having played his college golf in Texas, ranks 17th in Driving Accuracy, and 12th in Greens In Regulation. Two skills that are going to be crucial to success this week.

Lee Hodges is on the playoff bubble. Currently ranked 74th in the FedEx Cup standings, the Alabama native needs two solid weeks to advance. The issue is, his game is not in the shape he needs it to be. the 28-year old has missed three of his last four cuts and ranks a miserable 130th in Greens In Regulation. Not a number that inspires any confidence at all.

Pick: Doug Ghim over Lee Hodges (-110)

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Ludvig Aberg vs. Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas’ game is in complete disarray. The 30-year old has 15 career wins on the PGA Tour, but lately he’s looked more like your average club pro. Thomas has posted rounds of 81 and 82 over the last five weeks, missed three cuts, and narrowly made one or it could have been four. With no previous experience at the 3M Open, there’s just no reason to have any confidence in him.

On the other side of this matchup is one of the rising young stars on tour. Ludvig Aberg is a bomber, but he has the short game to go with his length. Last year’s top-ranked amateur has played in seven events since turning professional full-time earlier this year. He’s made the cut in all six here in North America, with the Scottish Open being the only tournament he didn’t make the weekend. With a top-five and three top-25 finishes, Aberg figures to finish well ahead of Thomas this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in contention to win the tournament Sunday.

Pick: Ludvig Aberg over Justin Thomas (-110)

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Cameron Young vs. Tony Finau

After a miserable May and June, Cameron Young seems to have found his game once again. The Wake Forest alum posted back-to-back top ten finishes in his last two events and seems primed to finally get his first win on tour. The fifth-year pro is third on tour in Driving Distance, 26th in Greens In Regulation and fourth in Birdie Average.

Tony Finau on the other hand, is not coming into this week’s tournament feeling great about his game. Even though he’s 10th in the FedEx Cup standings, the Utah native has missed the weekend in three of his last five starts and finished no better than T32. At 99th in Shots Gained: Putting, the flat stick seems to be causing Finau some major headaches lately. With Young in better form and making a late season charge, backing him in this matchup is the play.

Pick: Cameron Young over Tony Finau (-115)