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2023 4EVER 400: NASCAR at Homestead-Miami Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Consistency in sports is rare nowadays. The Tom Bradys and LeBron James of the world are few and far between. Turnover is high, and expectations to perform immediately are even higher.

It’s the same for motorsports, especially in the highest level of stock car racing, the NASCAR Cup Series. Drivers and teams come and go every season.

However, once upon a time, a 25-year-old from Bakersfield, Calif., got behind the wheel of a Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet Monte Carlo and never looked back. In just his third race after taking over for the late Dale Earnhardt Sr., who tragically died on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500, Kevin Harvick found victory lane at Atlanta - beating Jeff Gordon by 0.006 seconds.

The legend from there grew, with “The Closer” finding victory lane 60 times and scoring 443 T10s over the next 823 races, spanning 23 years. To fans like me who were born in the late ’90s, we’ve had the pleasure of witnessing the entire career arc of Harvick. It’s been cinematic and even hard to believe at times, but also one hell of a ride.

Harvick takes the checkered flag for the final time in the season finale in Phoenix. But with Homestead-Miami Speedway honoring him by naming this week’s race the 4EVER 400, it only felt right to crack open this week’s card with a feature on one of the most consistent and classiest to ever do it.

Emotions aside, we’ll once again be basing our betting decisions this week on the following data sets:

  • 2022 Homestead (Finishes, green flag speed,* total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & loop data*)
  • 1.5-mile, high-tire wear intermediate comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
    • 2023 Darlington I
    • 2023 Darlington II
    • 2023 Auto Club (slightly)
  • Driver history
  • Track & playoff trends
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

We’ve now hit back-to-back outrights and have our eyes on ending the season with five straight races in the green. Let’s see what’s on tap with our best bets for the 4EVER 400:

2023 4EVER 400: NASCAR at Homestead-Miami Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 5: William Byron (+120 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Last week, it was Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) driver Kyle Larson who found victory lane as the favorite. Instead of backing the No. 5 at minus money in the placement market, we’ll back his HMS teammate William Byron. The 25-year-old has the most wins (six), T10s (19) and average finish (11.3) in the Cup Series this season.

Dating back to 2022, Byron has the No. 1 average total speed ranking at the high-tire wear intermediates (5.43). That includes a win at Darlington I and P4 at Darlington II this year.

At Homestead a season ago, Byron won the pole, was No. 3 in driver rating (110.2), led 12% of laps (second-most) and was seventh in the total speed rankings (8.25). I’m on the outright, but I’ll also hedge with this T5 placement prop.

Special: Denny Hamlin & Brad Keselowski Both Finish Top 10 (+140 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Denny Hamlin enters Homestead in excellent form with five straight T10s on ovals. His career average finish in the Vice City is 9.8. This falls right in line with his ninth-best total speed ranking (8.75) and P7 here a year ago.

Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, Brad Keselowski is also on a heater, with six-straight T10s on non-superspeedway ovals. In what was a down 2022 season for the No. 6 team, Keselowski finished P5 at Homestead. It wasn’t a fluke either, as he was fifth in the total speed rankings (8.0), driver rating (102.8) and average position (7.3).

I’ll take advantage of both drivers’ consistency, backing them to each finish with a T10 here for plus money.

Matchup: Kevin Harvick (-135) vs. Joey Logano (+100) via DraftKings Sportsbook

While it only feels right to back Harvick this weekend, it’s not an emotional decision. He has an absurd career 86% T10 rate at Homestead and is No. 1 among actives in average finish (7.3). The No. 4 car is tied for second in the average total speed rankings (5.67) across our comp tracks this season. He had a mediocre car here a year ago, pacing 14th in the total speed rankings (13.0), and still managed his equipment enough to finish P8.

Conversely, Joey Logano had great speed last year, pacing fourth in the total speed rankings (7.75), but finished 18th. That has seemed to carry over to this season, as his average total speed ranking at the high-tire wear comp tracks is the 15th-best (13.33).

We won’t have too many more opportunities to back Harvick, so we’ll do it here by laying the juice in the matchups market.

Other Bets on My Card:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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