2023 AdventHealth 400: NASCAR at Kansas Speedway Odds, Picks & Predictions
The party continues in Kansas City this weekend. As echoes of Roger Goodell's voice downtown for the NFL Draft fade out, the roar of stock cars fades in.
Kansas Speedway - one of the most underrated tracks on the circuit - welcomes NASCAR and its fans for the running of the AdventHealth 400. Despite a quick turnaround from Monday's rescheduled Dover race, we NASCAR gamblers are excited for another chance to cash in.
Even without qualifying, "The Moster Mile" ended up being one of the most profitable races of the season. I called out the winner Martin Truex Jr. on our YouTube show, "The Backroad," and suggested a special on him and a T5 on Ross Chastain in this article series.
Momentum matters both in this sport and while gambling on it. We have plenty of it, so let's buckle in, first previewing our data sets for Kansas:
- 2022 Kansas 1 & 2 (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
- 2023 Auto Club, Las Vegas & Dover (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
- Driver track history
- Track trends
- Recent performance & current standings
*via ifantasyrace.com
With our notes in check, let’s lay on the gas to America’s heartland and reveal our best bets for the AdventHealth 400.
2023 AdventHealth 400: NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u.
Top 5: Christopher Bell (+150 via Barstool Sportsbook)
Christopher Bell continues to lead the Cup Series in T5s, so tailing him here for another makes sense. The 28-year-old has just six starts at Kansas. Yet, he’s finished inside the top 10 in four of them and in the top five twice. That success includes last year in the Next-Gen car, as he had a top-five total speed ranking and a T5 finishing position in both races.
He’s been fast this season at the mile-and-a-half tracks this season, sitting sixth in total speed ranking at Dover last week and seventh at Las Vegas. I expect more of the same speed for the No. 20 car come Sunday.
Top 10: Ty Gibbs (+150 via Barstool Sportsbook)
Toyota has been dominant at Kansas, winning five of the last seven. Not only did they sweep both events last season, but 75 percent of the top-six finishers were “Yoders.†Ty Gibbs sat in the top 20 in total speed rankings at both Las Vegas and Auto Club. He also ranked in the top 10 at Dover last week, despite the pit crew not getting the car full, costing him a chance at a T5.
The rookie has shown a lot this season, running the sixth most laps in the field. Minus Talladega, Gibbs has six straight top-20 performances. He already has one Cup Series start at Kansas, filling in for Kurt Busch last season. He’s started two Xfinity races here, winning one and finishing third in the other. I’m on him here for a T10 and the longshot, 40-1 outright.
Matchup: Austin Cindric (-110) vs. Erik Jones (-110) via DraftKings Sportsbook
This is a stink-fest matchup, with both drivers drastically underperforming this season. However, Austin Cindric had a top-12 speed ranking and finished 11th in this race last year. It was more of the same when he returned in the fall, having a top-14 total speed ranking and finishing 12th.
On the other hand, Erik Jones’ average finish at Kansas was 30.5 last season. Aside from superspeedways, his Legacy Motor Club team has shown zero speed all season long. It makes sense they’re switching to Toyota-manufactured cars next season. Until then? Fade Jones and company.
Other Bets on My Card:
- Christopher Bell Outright (+800 via Barstool Sportsbook)
- Ty Gibbs Outright (+4000 via Barstool Sportsbook)
- Kevin Harvick T10 (+100 via Barstool Sportsbook)
- Ty Gibbs (+100) vs. Daniel Suarez via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Winning Car Number 30+ (+450 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.