2023 American Express: Best Longshot Picks & Predictions
With the Sony Open in the rearview mirror, we now look forward to this week's American Express. This tournament will once again take place in the Coachella Valley in California, utilizing three different courses.
Golfers will rotate between the Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club prior to the 54-hole cut. Championship Sunday will then take place at the Stadium Course at PGA West.
Looking at the top of previous leaderboards, the metrics that predict the most success at this event include Scrambling and SG: Approach the Green.
Below, I will give out my two best longshot bets to win the 2023 American Express.
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These plays are 0.3u and 0.1u, or 0.3% and 0.1% of your betting bankroll.
Best Longshot Bets for 2023 American Express
Brian Harman (+4000 at BetMGM): 0.3u
The first golfer we are targeting this week is Brian Harman, who sits at 40/1 at BetMGM. More than anything else, we are backing Harman’s strong Scrambling ability to keep him in contention this week.
This season, he ranks top-4 on TOUR in Scrambling. Traditionally one of the best scramblers, Harman has finished inside the top-30 on TOUR in that category each of the last three seasons.
A good approach player as well, he ranks 54th on TOUR this season in SG: Approach the Green. Currently number five in the FedEx Cup Standings, Harman has gotten off to a tremendous start this season.
Making all six of his cuts thus far, he boasts two second-place finishes (World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and The RSM Classic). Knocking on the doorstep of a win all season, this tournament could be the chance to finally do it.
Harman has made the cut in six of his seven career appearances at this tournament, boasting three top-10 finishes, including his 3rd place finish last year. With how strong his play has been this season, this year could be the one where he grabs a victory in the Coachella Valley.
Andrew Putnam (+6600 at PointsBet): 0.1u
Another golfer we are targeting this week is Andrew Putnam, who is also traditionally one of the best scramblers on TOUR while also boasting a strong approach game. This season, he ranks top-3 on TOUR in Scrambling and 48th in SG: Approach the Green.
In fact, Putnam has finished inside the top-20 on TOUR in each of the last two seasons, a trend that is likely to continue once again this year. Like Harman, Putnam has gotten off to a tremendous start this season, making all nine of his cuts.
Boasting two top-5 finishes over this stretch, Putnam is coming off one of his best performances of the season with his T4 finish at last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii. This good form should continue at this week’s tournament, a place where Putnam has made the cut in all five of his career appearances.
Over those five made cuts, he boasts four top-25 finishes. With how sharp Putnam’s game has been this season, it is worth taking a flyer on him at 66/1.
Other Outright Winner Plays:
- Tom Hoge (+4000 at BetMGM): 0.3u
- Si-Woo Kim (+4000 at BetMGM): 0.3u
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.