2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 02, 2023

Since its establishment in 1966, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has been one of the most important competitions on the PGA Tour. When it started competing in 2007 under the name of the golfing legend, it acquired even greater significance, as the legend himself is typically on hand to distribute the trophy to the winner.

With the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational receiving elevated status to lure the top players in the world to compete, the intensity will now be ramped up once further. With 44 of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking set to tee it up starting on Thursday, theyâ€™ll compete for $20 million in prize money and a chance to further bolster their positions in the OWGR and FedEx standings. Here are our top picks for the event.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Outright Betting Pick

So far in 2023, Jason Day appears to be on the verge of regaining the form that propelled him to the top of the global rankings and a major championship in the now-distant past. Day has placed seventh, sixth and ninth in his last three starts, two of which have been in â€œelevatedâ€ competitions, demonstrating his ability to again compete with the best, even in the most competitive fields.

Dayâ€™s comeback to being one of the finest putters in the world in 2023 has been one of the most obvious distinctions between this season and prior ones for him. No one was more trustworthy than the Australian during his prime when it came to crucial putts, and it now seems this may be the case once more. Day has improved his putting stroke by 4.9, 5.8, 3.7, and 4.3 strokes in each of his four starts in 2023. He is only second to the red-hot Max Homa in his last 12 contests in that aspect of his game.

In addition to his outstanding recent performance, Day has a strong track record at Bay Hill. He finished in the top 25 in 2015, 2017 and 2018 and won the competition in 2016. Look for Day to break through here.

Jason Day (+2500)

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Top-5 Finisher

There is no denying that Jon Rahm is the best (and hottest) golfer on the planet right now. Rahm models at the very top, no matter how I shake the weighted stats around. I still, in good conscience, cannot bet anyone at 6-1 odds in a field this strong. Rory is right up there with Rahm in the talent department, but has scuffled (by his standards) of late. He also trumps the Spaniard in the most important metric, SG: T2G, where he is number one in the field.

Rory McIlroy (Top-5 +230 [1u])

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Longshot Bet

Another golfer to target this week is fan-favorite Rickie Fowler, who sits at 77/1 at Circa. It is important to shop around on Fowlerâ€™s price because his popularity from a fan perspective has driven the price down at numerous shops, but Circa has kept him at the fair price of +7700, which is worth taking a shot on.

Playing with an incredible resurgence to begin the 2022-23 season, Fowler currently sits 24th in the FedEx Cup Standings due to his strong start. He has now made the cut in seven of his first eight tournaments this season.

Not only is Fowler making cuts, but he continues to flirt with the top of the leaderboard with five top-20 finishes, including his T6 finish at the Fortinet Championship and T2 finish at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. His iron play is the main reason for this strong start, ranking 15th on TOUR this season in SG: Tee to Green and seventh in SG: Approach the Green.

Typically a strong iron player, Fowler has fared well at this tournament. Making the cut in 10 of his 11 career appearances at Bay Hill, he boasts four top-20 finishes, including his third-place finish in 2013.

At 77/1, it is worth taking a flyer on Fowler to grab his first win on TOUR since the 2019 WM Phoenix Open.

Rickie Fowler (+7700 via Circa): 0.1u

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