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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Best Longshot Picks &; Predictions

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With the 2023 Honda Classic in the rearview mirror, we now look forward to this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational in Florida. Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge will host this tournament once again, which it has done annually since 1979.

Bay Hill is a par-72, 7,466-yard track that plays particularly difficult, mainly due to a lot of challenging pin-placements and an abundance of water hazards. Looking at the top of previous leaderboards, the metric that predicts the most success at this course is SG: Tee to Green, rewarding the TOUR’s best iron players.

Below, I will give out my two best longshot bets to win the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Best Longshot Picks & Predictions

These plays are 0.2u and 0.1u, or 0.2% and 0.1% of your betting bankroll.

Tyrrell Hatton (+3700 via FanDuel Sportsbook): 0.2u

The first golfer we are targeting this week is Tyrrell Hatton, whose lone career win on TOUR came at this tournament in 2020. Following that performance up with a 21st-place finish at Bay Hill in 2021 and a second-place finish last year, Hatton typically thrives at this course.

In fact, he has never missed the cut across his six career appearances at this tournament while boasting three top-five finishes over that span. Entering this week in good form, Hatton is 4/4 on made cuts this season, including his T13 finish at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina and his T6 finish at the WM Phoenix Open.

A fabulous iron player, he currently ranks 18th on TOUR this season in SG: Tee to Green and 41st in SG: Approach the Green. Hatton has finished inside the top-75 on TOUR in each of those two categories in each of the last five seasons.

Mix in his consistent success at this tournament and it is worth taking a flyer on Hatton to win at this course once again at 37/1.

Rickie Fowler (+7700 via Circa): 0.1u

Another golfer to target this week is fan-favorite Rickie Fowler, who sits at 77/1 at Circa. It is important to shop around on Fowler’s price because his popularity from a fan perspective has driven the price down at numerous shops, but Circa has kept him at the fair price of +7700, which is worth taking a shot on.

Playing with an incredible resurgence to begin the 2022-23 season, Fowler currently sits 24th in the FedEx Cup Standings due to his strong start. He has now made the cut in seven of his first eight tournaments this season.

Not only is Fowler making cuts, but he continues to flirt with the top of the leaderboard with five top-20 finishes, including his T6 finish at the Fortinet Championship and T2 finish at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. His iron play is the main reason for this strong start, ranking 15th on TOUR this season in SG: Tee to Green and seventh in SG: Approach the Green.

Typically a strong iron player, Fowler has fared well at this tournament. Making the cut in 10 of his 11 career appearances at Bay Hill, he boasts four top-20 finishes, including his third-place finish in 2013.

At 77/1, it is worth taking a flyer on Fowler to grab his first win on TOUR since the 2019 WM Phoenix Open.

Other Outright Winner Plays:

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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