2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Picks & Predictions
We did it! After a few close brushes with outright glory this season, we nailed one. Max Homa paid out 22-1 as the outright winner of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, but we didn’t stop there. I invested a total of three units into Collin Morikawa, who cashed our top-5 and top-10 tickets with his solo third-place finish. Sprinkles are for winners, and we also afforded ourselves a fudge drizzle and a maraschino cherry on top.
This week is a tournament that is near and dear to my heart. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is up here in NorCal on some of the most hallowed golf grounds on the planet. The pros, along with a mixture of celebrities and local amateurs, will embark upon three courses (Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Club) before the cut after 54 holes. The final round will culminate at picturesque Pebble Beach, where the roars from the gallery will infuse with the waves of the mighty Pacific and seagull screeches.
After my aggression paid off last week, I will be reining it in for this event. Not many of the world’s top golfers play this event anymore, leaving it open for anyone in the field to rise to the occasion and make an impression. Even though it seems like I’m allergic to betting favorites, this is another week where the odds at the top are much too short to make a sound investment. This simultaneously allows for some monster payouts should lightning strike for the second week in a row. My favorites aren’t widely shared by others in the golf betting community, from what I have gathered. We all agree that Pebble Beach is shaping up to be another crap shoot.
With that in mind, I plan on taking a buckshot approach at this event. This means I’ll put smaller bets on more golfers who I favor to win the tournament. It’s low risk with high reward if/when it hits.
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Picks & Predictions
Seamus Power (+2200 Outright [1u]; +250 Top-10 [1u])
The smooth-putting Irishman lines up with Pebble Beach incredibly well. Seamus Power is known for his short game and accuracy off the tee, which will suit him well on all three courses this week. Even his weakness on approach is a great deal better inside of 150 yards, where the majority of his shots will come from.
Scott Stallings (+4500 Outright [1u]; +400 Top-10 [1u])
I was shocked to see such a quality golfer coming in at these long odds. Thankfully, that’s the name of the game in sports betting, especially with professional golf. Scott Stallings has a great all-around game and I would have thrown some coins on him as low as 30-1.
Joel Dahmen (+5000 Outright [0.5u])
Two golfers come to mind in events like this that feature sub 7,000-yard courses: Kevin Kisner and Joel Dahmen. Kisner’s odds were a bit rich for my blood this week, but Dahmen will be right at home in his bucket hat this week at 50-1. He finished tied for sixth here last year. If he can get the putter running hot, Dahmen is the type of guy who can win this thing going away.
Kurt Kitayama (+6000 Outright [0.5u]; +1200 Top-5 [0.5u])
I wasn’t going to fade the guy from NorCal at our only host tournament on the main PGA Tour schedule. Although Kurt Kitayama is from the inland valley like me and putts better on Bermuda and bentgrass than on Poa Annua, he has every other key metric in spades this week. Kitayama is a world-class iron player and is stellar around the green. It would be fitting for his first PGA Tour victory to occur here.
Brendon Todd (+7500 Outright [0.25u])
I trust my numbers…or at least I really try to. I run a weighted statistical model every week and shift the emphases around at least five to ten times, paying attention to the guys who stick in the top-10. No matter how much I tweaked my model this week, I couldn’t shake Brendon Todd from the top spot. Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill eliminate the advantage that long hitters enjoy on other courses, with forced layups and landing spots. Todd is among the best on Tour in proximity on approach, especially from wedge distances that will be key this week.
Russell Knox (+8000 Outright [0.25u])
Russell Knox hails from Scotland and excels on coastal courses like the trio we will see this week. Although he measures poorly off the tee and around the green, he is outstanding on approach. With the way my statistical model is weighted this week, it pushed Knox all the way to 8th-best in this field. That’s plenty high enough to take a chance that he can build on his 33rd-place finish here last season and make a run at it at 80-1.
Mark Hubbard (+13000 Outright [0.25u])
Mark Hubbard is another one of the golfers in this field who have the exact style of game that fits here. His strengths are on shorter approach distances and especially putting. Hubbard is fifth-best in this field at putting on Poa Annua surfaces, which are only found on the West Coast Swing. He finished in a tie for 33rd here last season and can certainly make enough birdies to win the event if he gets hot.
Kevin Streelman (+13000 Outright [0.25u]; +400 Top-20 [0.5u])
At every tournament, there is always a couple of guys who pop up on the leaderboard, never to be seen again until that same event the next year. At Pebble Beach, that golfer is Kevin Streelman. He finished no worse than 13th place here in four consecutive appearances until he missed the cut last season, including a runner-up result in 2020. I’m more interested in his top-20 odds getting 4-1 action, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if he broke through out of nowhere to win.
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