Navigate

2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400: NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Picks & Predictions

by |

It's natural to question governing bodies. We do it in politics, pop culture and - of course - sports. 

Maybe more than any genre of competition, decision-makers in motorsports are put under a microscope. In a sense, I get it. The auto industry advances year over year, so the sport around it has to, as well. But whether it’s fans who are afraid of change or those who blame the sport when their favorite driver loses, the hate for NASCAR stakeholders has gotten a bit absurd.

I’ve been around racing and following the highest level of stock cars since before I could even write a sentence. As I’ve grown, so has the noise from race fans. I get some of it; it’s been by no means a flawless league. But are any of the major sports? And when they do get it right? Crickets.

Well, as the Cup Series returns to Charlotte, this time for the ROVAL, I’m choosing to say, “Good on ya, NASCAR.”

The 2024 Cup Series schedule was released this week, and I can’t help but think they got it right. Newer fun tracks like North Wilskboro, hosting the All-Star Race, and Chicago Street Course will be back. While events that lost their luster, like Bristol Dirt and Indianapolis Road Course, will shift back to their original iterations.

Though it would’ve been nice to see a different final track (not sorry, Phoenix) or the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal, Canada, added to the schedule, there’s still a lot to look forward to. That includes an inaugural date at Iowa Speedway, a 7/8-mile track in Newton, Iowa.

Instead of adding fuel to the fire, I wanted to take a rare moment to celebrate a sport willing to innovate and also listen to its real fans about what is and isn’t working.

But before we get to next season, we still have five races remaining in 2023, including this weekend at the Charlotte ROVAL. Here are the data sets we’re weighing for this unique racetrack:

  • 2022 ROVAL (Finishes, green flag speed,* total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & loop data*)
  • Superspeedway comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
    • 2023 Circuit of the Americas (COTA)
    • 2023 Sonoma
    • 2023 Chicago Street (slightly)
    • 2023 Indianapolis Road Couse
    • Watkins Glen
  • Driver history
  • Track & playoff trends
  • Recent performance & current standings (slightly)

*via ifantasyrace.com

With this being another elimination race, this time for the Round of 12, make sure you’re familiar with the current standings to understand whose agenda is what this weekend.

That said, let’s fire up our best bets for the Bank of America ROVAL 400:

2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400: NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 5: AJ Allmendinger (+190 via BetRivers Sportsbook)

Betting on AJ Allmendinger at a road course isn’t noteworthy. He’s been one of the best to do it in a Cup car. But there’s specifically a lot to love about the No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet Carero this weekend. Allmendinger has raced the ROVAL three times. Last season, he started P7 and finished P4. Engine failure ruined his start in 2021. But in 2018, in a JTG Daugherty car, the “Dinger” also started second and finished seventh. That starting position will be crucial here, as the winner has come from the top 10 on the grid in four of five races.

Last year, in particular, Allmendinger was running second before the lap 103 chaos ensued. Despite the P4 finish, the advanced metrics suggest he had the best car that day. He was No. 1 in the total speed rankings and driver rating while being the fastest car late in a run.

This season, at all of our road course comps, Allmendinger rates out fourth in the total speed rankings. Not competing in the playoffs for the past month-plus, you have to think that Kaulig Racing has this race circled in hopes of a win. I expect a full-send from Allmendinger and company this weekend.

Top 10: Alex Bowman (+150 via DraftKings Sportsbook) | 2u

The ROVAL is one of the more specialized tracks, meaning pedigree means a lot here. Aside from race favorite Chase Elliott, perhaps no one has more of it than his Hendricks Motorsports (HSM) teammate Alex Bowman. The driver of the No. 48 is No. 1 in average starting position (5.5) and average finish (6.0) at the ROVAL all-time.

He has four appearances and went home with a T10 every time. Bowman was injured last season at this time and did not race. However, Noah Gragson did drive the Ally Chevrolet and was running P9 before the lap 103 chaos, ultimately finishing 23rd. If you know how Gragson performed in the Cup Series this season, this was quite the feat.

The team and the driver both seem to have a knack for the ROVAL, giving us confidence to back them for two units this weekend.

Matchup: Justin Haley (-108) vs. Erik Jones (-121) via BetRivers Sportsbook

Another team that seems to have a knack for the ROVAL is Kaulig Racing. Not only did Allmendinger finish P4 last season, but his teammate Justin Haley was jsut one spot behind him. This wasn’t a fluke either, as Haley was second in total speed rankings, had an average running positon of 6.2 (fourth-best) and ran 100% of laps inside the top 15.

He takes on Erik Jones in this matchup. It was a respectable day for Jones, finishing 12th in the total speed rankings and 11th on the track. Still, it was nowhere near the day Haley’s No. 31 car had.

Fast forward to this season, and both drivers have been abysmal on road courses. Expect for one outlier, Chicago Street, where Haley was ninth in the total speed rankings and finished second. With at least some signs of life turning right this season, plus last year’s huge day at the ROVAL, I like Haley to best Jones’ No. 42 Legacy Motorsports Chevrolet.

Other Bets on My Card:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App