2023 Belmont Stakes: Best Exotic Bets, Picks & Predictions
The first two races of the Triple Crown have produced very different results for the betting public. The Kentucky Derby paid incredibly well, as Mage and Two Phil's took first and second with long odds. In the Preakness, the payouts were much smaller, as the top three finishers in the race also happened to be the horses with the best odds when the race went off.
Preakness winner National Treasure is back for the Belmont, as this field is shaping up to be the best of all three races. Forte will finally get a chance to race after scratching at the Kentucky Derby, while Derby morning line favorites Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice will also take the starting line. Will any other horses be able to displace the four favorites over the 1 1/2 mile track?
Let's take a look at the best exotic bets for the 2023 Belmont Stakes.
2023 Belmont Stakes Exotic Bets & Predictions
Here are some of our top exotic picks and predictions for the 2023 Belmont Stakes.
What are exotic bets in horse racing?
Exotic wagers are like horse racing's version of parlays in sports betting. They are low-probability wagers that can carry some massive payouts if lady luck is on your side. And like a parlay, you need each leg to occur to win.
There are tons of different types of exotic wagers out there, but for the purpose of this article, we'll stick to the main three:
- Exacta: Picking the horses that will come in first and second place.
- Trifecta: Picking the horses that will come in first, second and third place.
- Superfecta: Picking the horses that will come in first, second, third and fourth place.
Another unique option in horse racing is the ability to "box" your exotic wagers. When you box a wager, you're playing all of the possible combinations of your wager. This gives you a better chance to win, but increases your initial wager.
Let's use an exacta as the simplest example. Say you bet a $1 exacta with Horse A finishing first and Horse B finishing second. If you do a straight exacta, you only win if Horse A and Horse B finish first and second exactly. If you box this exacta, it becomes a $2 wager (because there are two possible outcomes), but you will win if Horse B comes in first and Horse A comes in second.
It's worth noting that you can bet more than two horses in an exacta, but keep in mind that your wager will increase. Say you take Horse A, B and C in an exacta box, that becomes a $6 wager because of the six possible combinations.
Best Exotic Wagers for the 2023 Belmont
$2 Exacta Box: (6) Forte / (7) Hit Show / (8) Angel of Empire
This bet will cost you $12, but we like this trio for a few reasons. First of all, we're going to try to beat Tapit Trice. The horse ran slow at the Kentucky Derby but had nothing left down the home stretch. At 3-1, the price is simply too steep for a horse that has been good but struggled in the longest and biggest race of his career.
Angel of Empire ran a similar race to Tapit Trice at Churchill Downs, but he had plenty left coming down the home stretch. Unfortunately, the horse was just too far behind to make a serious push for the win. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat are some of the best in the business, and I don't expect that to happen again.
Forte has won five consecutive races, and though he hasn't run since April 1st, he has defeated both Mage and National Treasure this year. Without a scratch at the Derby, Forte very well could be racing for a Triple Crown on Saturday.
But boxing Angel of Empire and Forte won't pay much. That's why we're including Hit Show as the third horse. Though only fifth at the Kentucky Derby, Hit Show ran a consistent race and probably went out just a hair too hard to hold on at the end. Of all the horses with greater than 5-1 odds, this is the best horse of the bunch.
With this wager, if Forte and Angel of Empire run first and second, you'll be happy, but if Hit Show sneaks into second, or pulls off the improbable win, you'll be ecstatic.
$2 Trifecta Box: (6) Forte / (7) Hit Show / (8) Angel of Empire
Based on my exacta, you have to know where I'm going with the trifecta. I'm taking the same three horses for the same reasons.
There is going to be a temptation for many to put National Treasure or Tapit Trice in here, and while they can each certainly finish in the top three, this is the trio we like more. If you were to dump any of my horses, it would certainly be Hit Show. And I prefer National Treasure over Tapit Trice.
$.10 Superfecta Box: (1) Tapit Shoes / (6) Forte / (7) Hit Show / (8) Angel of Empire
Rather than throwing in all the favorites, I'm going to take a chance with Tapit Shoes here. This is a horse that has solid closing speed and will likely stay off the pace as the favorites in this race run near the front early.
If horses slow down the stretch, then this horse is going to be able to sneak in for a fourth-place finish. Remember, at Belmont, pretty much anything is possible.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.