2023 Belmont Stakes: Odds, Trends & Best Bets
This Saturday will be five weeks since The Run for the Roses and that means it’s time for the 155th Belmont Stakes. The longest Triple Crown race, the aptly nicknamed Test of the Champion is run at 1 1/2 miles in the deep sand of “Big Sandy.†The Run for the Carnations will start at approximately 6:49 pm ET on Saturday, June 10 at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.
So far this year, my Triple Crown picks are 1-0-1 with Angel of Empire finishing third at the Kentucky Derby and my Preakness pick of National Treasure hitting. I am a process-driven bettor who tries to bring a method to the madness that is sports betting, specifically horse racing, so let’s look at historic trends for the Belmont Stakes to put together our tickets.
2023 Belmont Stakes Trends & Best Bets
Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1904
1 – Tapit Shoes (20-1) – (Post 1 winners – 24, Most Recent – Justify, 2018)
2 – Tapit Trice (3-1) – (Post 2 winners – 13, Most Recent – Essential Quality, 2021)
3 – Arcangelo (8-1) – (Post 3 winners – 15, Most Recent – Union Rags, 2012)
4 – National Treasure (5-1) – (Post 4 winners – 10, Most Recent – Summer Bird, 2009)
5 – Il Miracolo (30-1) – (Post 5 winners – 15, Most Recent – American Pharoah, 2015)
6 – Forte (5-2) – (Post 6 winners – 9, Most Recent – Mo Donegal, 2022)
7 – Hit Show (10-1) – (Post 8 winners – 14, Most Recent – Sir Winston, 2019)
8 – Angel of Empire (7-2) – (Post 8 winners – 7, Most Recent – Tiz the Law, 2020)
9 – Red Route One (15-1) (Post 9 winners -4, Most Recent – Afleet Alex, 2005)
10 – N/A (Post 10 winners – 1, Most Recent – Thunder Gulch, 1995)
11 – N/A (Post 11 winners – 3, Most Recent – Tonalist, 2014)
12 – N/A (Post 12 winners – 1, Most Recent – Palace Malice, 2013)
13 – N/A (Post 13 winners – 1, Most Recent – Creator, 2016)
The first seven posts have been the most advantageous throughout Belmont Stakes history with all having produced at least nine winners and all but Gate 6 producing at least 10. While Gate 1 (Tapit Shoes) has historically been the winningest post, over the past 23 races, Gates 3 (Arcangelo) and 7 (Hit Show) have each produced three winners, the most of any post during that span. Even more recently, only Gate 2 (Tapit Trice) has produced multiple winners in the last 10 years.
Trend-Based Bad Bets
There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets†for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win the Belmont Stakes. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven. Full disclosure, Mage fell into this section in my Kentucky Derby preview, due to not having run as a 2-year-old, but like I said, anything can happen on race day.
Preakness Weakness
Only three of the last 20 Belmont Stakes winners have won after running in the Preakness Stakes. Of those three winners, American Pharoah (’15) and Justify (’18) were both on their way to becoming Triple Crown champions and the third, Afleet Alex (’05), also won the Preakness. The only two Belmont entrants that ran in this year’s Preakness are National Treasure and Red Route One. National Treasure comes in off a Preakness victory so he at least has a chance, but recent history rules out Red Route One.
Favorites, Schmavorites
Favorites have lost 14 of the last 20 Belmonts, likely hurting the chances of Forte. Although four of the last eight favorites have won, two of those were on their way to Triple Crowns and were bucking all sorts of trends. If you take those two out, 14 of the last 18 favorites (77.8%) who did not go on to win the Triple Crown lost on Belmont Day.
Positive Belmont Trends
Nonstop From Kentucky to New York
Over the last 20 years, 13 Belmont winners have also run in the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, of those 13 winners, 10 have raced in the Belmont without running in a race since the Derby with the three exceptions being the aforementioned Preakness winners, Triple Crown champions, American Pharoah and Justify, along with Afleet Alex. Tapit Trice, Hit Show, and Angel of Empire all ran in the Derby and have not run since.
The Longest Odds in the Longest Race
Eight of the last 20 Belmont Stakes winners have opened with double-digit odds. Ever since Angel of Empire’s great-grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont in 2003 at 3-1, eight of the last 19 Belmont winners have run at double-digit odds, beginning with Birdstone in 2004. This includes seven of the last 15 winners running at double-digit odds, despite the aforementioned four of last eight Belmonts being won by favorites. This year, four horses opened with double-digit odds: Tapit Shoes (20-1), Il Miracolo (30-1), Hit Show (10-1), and Red Route One (15-1).
Making the Grade
Since 2003, 13 of the 20 Belmont winners had a previous graded stakes victory, including eight of the last 10. In fact, of the seven winners that had not won a graded stakes race, six had at least finished in the money. In this field, Tapit Trice, Arcangelo, National Treasure, Forte, Hit Show, Angel of Empire, and Angel of Empire have all won graded stakes races. This trend doesn’t bode well for the remaining horses who have only won or placed in local stakes races at best, even with Il Miracolo coming in off his best race, a win in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.
Need for Speed
In recent years, the Belmont has favored pacesetters and stalkers, as 12 of the last 15 winners have been within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 mile. The only two horses to win after being in the back half of the field at the 1/2 mile mark are Sir Winston in 2019 and Creator in 2016. Dating back to 2008, 12 of 15 winners (80%) and 10 straight have run the 1/2 mile in under 49 seconds, with two of the last three running it in under 47 seconds.
Peter Pan Winner is No Lost Boy
Arcangelo already has a graded stakes win at Belmont Park under his belt as he comes in fresh off a hard-fought victory in a photo finish in the Peter Pan Stakes back on May 13. Despite 13 of the last 20 Belmont winners having run in the Kentucky Derby, in the past 13 years, the Peter Pan Stakes or a race with the exact same conditions run sometime between the Derby and the Belmont has acted as a springboard for three different horses (23.1%) including the 2014 Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist. Additionally, five of the last 10 winners had previous experience running at Belmont Park and in this field, only Arcangelo and Forte are not making their Belmont debut. Another point of interest is that Arcangelo is trained by Jena Antonucci, who is vying to be the first female trainer to win the Belmont Stakes. Antonucci honed her craft under the tutelage of Hall of Fame trainer and 4-time Belmont Stakes winner, D. Wayne Lukas, and is searching for her third career graded stakes victory. Arcangelo will also be ridden by Javier Castellano, who rode Mage to victory in the Kentucky Derby.
Daddy’s Going the Distance
The 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes is the longest race most of these horses will ever run, and it obviously takes stamina, something their pedigree can predict and supply. It stands to reason that 14 of the last 16 Belmont winners were sired by horses that won Grade I races of 1 1/8 mile or longer. In this field, the only horse that does not fit this mold is Forte, so there is just another knock against the seemingly snake-bitten favorite with six wins in seven career starts.
Tapit In For The Win, Son
Stamina from one’s sire has been key to winning the Belmont, and recently, one sire has reigned supreme when it comes to Belmont winners. Four of the last nine Belmont winners have been sired by Tapit, the three-time leading North American sire. Tapit was a successful distance runner during his racing career, winning the 1 1/8 mile Grade I Wood Memorial before passing on that distance prowess to his offspring. It’s easy to spot his sons in this race: Tapit Trice and Tapit Shoes. If you extend this trend of Tapit progeny to the maternal side of the pedigree, Arcangelo, Il Miracolo, and Hit Show are all out of mares that were sired by Tapit, giving Tapit direct bloodlines to 55% of this year’s field.
Pletcher, Pletcher, Belmont Money Catcher
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won four of the last 16 (25%) Belmont Stakes. On top of that, in the last 17 Belmonts, in addition to his four winners, Pletcher has had seven horses Place and had three more Show. In that span, 51 horses have finished in the money at the Belmont, and 14 have been trained by Todd Pletcher, which is an incredible 27.4%. Combine this insane number with his Tapit blood and trends point ever more toward Tapit Trice.
Jockeying for Glory
Six of the nine jockeys saddling up for Saturday have at least one Belmont Stakes win under their belt. Irad Ortiz Jr. (Forte) and Joel Rosario (Red Route One) both have two Belmont wins and have accounted for 40% of the Belmont victories since 2013. John R. Velazquez (National Treasure) also has two career Belmont wins dating back to Rags to Riches in 2007. Additionally, Luis Saez (Tapit Trice), Manny Franco (Hit Show), and Jose Ortiz (Tapit Shoes) all have a Belmont victory of their own. Javier Castellano, who is riding Arcangelo after guiding Mage to his first Kentucky Derby win this year, will be going for his first career Belmont Stakes victory after having come in second place three times before in 2011, 2014, and 2016. Flavien Prat (Angel of Empire) is also searching for his first Belmont win in his third attempt, having finished second in 2021. 37-year-old Marco Meneses (Il Miracolo) is the only jockey making his Belmont Stakes debut and rounds out the talented field of riders.
Pedigrees
Tapit Shoes (Tapit – Awesome Flower by Flower Alley)
Tapit Trice (Tapit – Danzatrice by Dunkirk)
Arcangelo (Arrogate – Modeling by Tapit)
National Treasure (Quality Road – Treasure by Medaglia d’Oro)
Il Miracolo (Gun Runner – Tapit’s World by Tapit)
Forte (Violence – Queen Caroline by Blame)
Hit Show (Candy Ride – Actress by Tapit)
Angel of Empire (Classic Empire – Armony’s Angel by To Honor and Serve)
Red Route One (Gun Runner – Red House by Tapit)
Best Boxed Superfecta: Tapit Trice – Angel of Empire – Arcangelo – Hit Show/Tapit Shoes (2-8-3-7/1)
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports. For more from Luke, check out his archive.