2023 BMW Championship Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
The FedEx Cup Playoffs have breezed through the first stage. Three winning tickets were cashed from last week’s FedEx St Jude Championship column. It would have been four, if not for Viktor Hovland bumbling on the 72nd hole to drop from sixth to 13th. The top 50 in playoff points advance to this week’s BMW Championship in Chicago. The 30 best will take on East Lake in Atlanta for the chance at $18 million. I’d love to get a cut of that action.
Olympia Fields Country Club plays host to this year’s BMW Championship. The 7,300-yard par-70 North Course was also the host in 2020, where Jon Rahm was the champion at a paltry four strokes under par. This course is brutally difficult and will put the top 50 golfers into turmoil from the opening tee shot to the 18th green. A combination of long and accurate off-the-tee is essential, along with corresponding scrambling and bogey avoidance. It was Rahm’s wizardry around the greens that saved par from the abyss many times over that year. Saving par and exploiting the handful of scoring holes will be paramount to success here.
Exploiting soft lines is the way to go this week. Some of the best golfers in the world are simply not entering the Windy City in great form, while others are coming in scorching hot with even hotter payouts tied to their names. Grab some Portillos and a thin tavern slice and let’s tee off.
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2023 BMW Championship Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
Jon Rahm
The fiery Spaniard scuffled at times last week in Memphis but also showed flashes of the brilliance that earned him four wins earlier this season. Rahm took home this trophy the last time Olympia Fields hosted, so he will be exuding fond memories. Betting on Rahm is a bet on a golfer who is skilled enough to not be daunted in rugged playing conditions. That theme is present across every slip I hold this week.
Picks: Outright +900 [1u]; Top-5 +190 [1u]
Viktor Hovland
Hovland was amazing last week. Sure, he lost a lot of money for all of us with his flailing finish. He also comes to play whenever a course isn’t freely relinquishing birdie opportunities. I still hold the smiling Norwegian in high regard as a world-class player from tee to green. His around-the-green game has grown leaps and bounds this season and I no longer worry about that part of his game holding him back.
Picks: Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-10 +140 [1u]
Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa has yet to win this season. It has not, however, been a disappointing campaign. It would take a monumental collapse in Chicago for the former Cal Bear to miss out on the Tour Championship. A win this week would put him in the driver’s seat in Atlanta. One of the more accurate ball-strikers in the world, Morikawa is at the door with a battering ram. He finished 20th here in 2020 before he was the two-time major winner he arrives as this week.
Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +200 [1u]
Si Woo Kim
Writing about the PGA Tour over the past couple of years has endeared me to plenty of personalities. Si Woo Kim might be at the very top of that list. He is a joy to watch and one hell of an underrated golfer. From tee to green, Kim is outstanding. He is also in the top half of this illustrious field in scrambling and proximity from the key approach distances (150-175; 175-200). His odds are simply too soft for this good of a course fit.
Picks: Outright +5500 [0.5u]; Top-20 +130 [0.5u]
Kurt Kitayama
This is another gut call. Kitayama is dead last in my weighted statistical model this week. The course is brutal and not conducive to the bomb-and-gouge style that made the NorCal native a 250-1 winner this season. How quickly we forget that the same was the case at Bay Hill and at the PGA Championship, where Kitayama finished in fourth place. The tougher the conditions, the longer KK hangs around the top of the leaderboard. Call me crazy all you want, but the homer picks have lined my pockets all season.
Picks: Outright +15000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +275 [0.5u]