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2023 BMW Championship: PGA First-Round Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The PGA Tour playoffs move on to Olympia Fields Country Club where the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up this weekend. The no-cut, four day event will determine the field for next week’s Tour Championship. Only the top 30 will advance to East Lake.

Before anyone can think about winning next week, they’ll have to contend with one of the toughest tests in the playoff rotation. Olympia Fields will play 7,366 yards and par is 70. Players will be challenged to hit it long and straight. If approach shots go astray, punishing rough awaits them around the greens.

Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm battled it out here three years ago, with Rahm beating Johnson in a playoff. With that in mind, we’re going to look past the Brian Harmans of the world and focus on some longer hitters who have a chance to be in the lead after the first day.

    2023 BMW Championship Best First-Round Leader Bets

    Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

    Patrick Cantlay (+1600)

    If Lucas Glover has taught us anything, it’s to ride the hot hand. Cantlay fits that description. The California native has five top-ten finishes in his last ten starts and lost in a playoff last week to aforementioned Glover. The UCLA grad is the best on tour in Total Driving, and fourth in Strokes Gained: Total. Don’t be surprised to see the 31-year old leading on Thursday night.

    Tony Finau (+3500)

    Finau fired a final-round 65 here in 2020 so his last competitive round at Olympia Fields has to give the 33-year old a lot of confidence coming into this week. The Salt Lake City resident ranks 16th in Total Driving and sixth in SG: Approach. It all hinges on the flat stick. If Finau can find the magic on the greens he had here three years ago, he could be atop the leaderboard once first-round play is complete.

    Byeong Hun An (+3000)

    The fifth longest hitter on tour this year, An is 32nd in SG: Total and seventh in Scrambling which will definitely be a key skill this week. The South Korean carded a pair of 68’s over the weekend here in 2020 so he knows his way around Olympia Fields. An is currently 38th in the FedEx Cup standings so if he wants to make it to East Lake, the 31-year old will have to start fast. This is a nice price for an under the radar value.

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