2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups Picks & Predictions

by Tom Stad |
May 24, 2023

Now that the second major of the 2023 PGA Tour season is in the books, we turn our attention to Colonial Country Club and the Charles Schwab Challenge. The par 70, 7.209 yard layout is the Tourâ€™s longest running co-sponsored event still held at the original venue in Fort Worth, Texas. That means there is plenty of course history for the field that we can use to find some great value when deciding who to back this week.

The weather shouldnâ€™t be much of a factor this week, as high temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80â€™s with single digit winds, which is a bit unusual for this tournament, and little to no precipitation during tournament play. There is some rain expected on Wednesday, which should provide a soft layout to start the tournament before the grounds dry out over the weekend. Golfers should take advantage of the soft conditions, and fire away at pins early in the tournament.

But what type of player find success here? Tour legend Ben Hogan, who won this tournament four of the first seven years it was contested, once said about Colonial that â€œâ€A straight ball will get you in more trouble at Colonial than any course I know.â€ With that in mind, weâ€™ll be looking to back players who are known for shaping their ball flight.

At first glance there are several very tasty matchups that provide great value, but we are going to narrow that down to the best three plays for Thursdayâ€™s action.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: Head-to-Head Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sam Burns over Jordan Spieth (+110)

This is a really intriguing matchup. Spieth, a Texas native, loves this course and this event. Burns is the defending champion. Spieth has finished in the Top 10 in eight of his ten appearances at Colonial. You might be asking yourself, â€œWhy would anyone back the other side here?â€. The answer is simple. Spieth jammed his wrist two weeks ago. He gutted it out at the PGA Championship last week, but made the cut on the number and was never a factor over the weekend. Heâ€™s going to test out the wrist during Wednesdayâ€™s Pro-Am. If he feels good, heâ€™ll tee it up Thursday. Burns on the other hand, is healthy. The Louisiana native was lights out in the month of April, but has struggles since the calendar turned to May. His ability to shape the ball off the tee has served him well at Colonial though. This is the perfect spot for the 26 year-old to rediscover success. A healthy defending champ in Burns against a less than healthy Spieth at a plus number is too tasty to pass up.

Emiliano Grillo over Denny McCarthy (+100)

2016 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Emiliano Grillo always seems to make the weekend in non-majors. One of the more consistent players on tour, the Argentinian has posted sub-70 scores in ten of his last 12 competitive rounds if you overlook last weeks MC at the PGA Championship. Grillo is 6th on tour in Total Driving Efficiency and has four top 25 finishes in seven starts at Colonial. It could have been five if not for a final round 78 in last yearâ€™s edition. McCarthy is having a solid year. He ranks inside the top 10 in Scrambling from 20 yards and in, and Putting Inside 10 Feet, which has resulted in the University of Virginia product sitting at 45th in the current FedEx standings. But Colonial has not been kind to the Maryland native. In four starts here, he has finished no better than T27 and missed the cut twice. At even money, Grillo is a heavy lean.

Michael Block over Harrison Endycott (+130)

Unless youâ€™ve been off the grid completely, you have heard Blockâ€™s name quite a bit this week. The PGA club professional at Arroyo Trabuco Golf Club in Mission Viejo, CA took the golf world by storm at Oak Hill last week. His T-15 finish, was the stuff legends are made of. Itâ€™s â€œRudyâ€ meets â€œTin Cupâ€ type movie material. But he didnâ€™t get lucky. Heâ€™s good. Really good. He passed up life as a pro on tour for a more modest career in the sport. Thereâ€™s no telling how good he could have been, but I have no reservations in saying that he could have had a great career had he chosen the more grueling path.

All that aside, Block has the game, and demeanor, to compete on tour. He fired an opening round 65 at The American Express event in January. Endycott is no slouch either. The Australian matched Block at the AmEx with a 65 on Thursday on his way to a T-22 finish. But the 26-year-old has missed (five) as many cuts as heâ€™s made in 2023 and I canâ€™t help but be pulled into the vortex that is the Michael Block sensation. I may be listening to my heart over my mind a bit here, but something is telling me that the â€œBlock Partyâ€ isnâ€™t over just yet. Getting him at plus money against a young Aussie who is just getting started on the PGA Tour is well worth the risk and should be an enjoyable ride.

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