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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions

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With the second Major Championship of the season behind us, it’s time to turn our attention back to Texas and Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Hogan’s Alley, as Colonial is affectionately known thanks to Ben Hogan’s four wins in the first seven events here, is a Par-70 layout that demands accuracy and creativity. There are plenty of birdie opportunities, so expect the leader(s) to be in the low 60s after Thursday’s first round.

Let’s look at our three favorite options to be atop the leaderboard going into Friday.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Justin Rose (33-1)

Justin Rose fired an opening round 63 at Colonial just three years ago. The Englishman is coming off a T-9 at the PGA Championship and has carded three straight opening rounds in the 60s. In eight career starts here, Rose has a scoring average of 68.3. That’s the fourth best for any pro with at least that many starts at Colonial.

Rose already has a win this year at Pebble Beach. The 42-year-old doesn’t show many signs of slowing down either. Rose is 22nd in the FedEx Cup standings, has seven top-25 finishes this season and is consistently in contention. You can’t ignore the talent or the potential to be atop the leaderboard at the end of the first round. Rose is well worth backing this week to lead the tournament after 18 holes.

Ryan Palmer (80-1)

When the PGA Tour is in Texas, Ryan Palmer should always be on your radar. The Amarillo native gives off Roy McAvoy (of the movie “Tin Cup”) vibes. The former Texas A&M Aggie is as comfortable as it gets in the Lone Star state. Palmer fired a 62 on a Thursday here, granted it’s been a decade. However, he’s in great form, posting a T-8 at the AT&T Byron Nelson earlier this month after opening with 64.

This is a really great number for a golfer who loves it when the Tour swings through Texas. The 19-year Tour veteran doesn’t often win (just four victories in 483 starts), but he’s been good enough to keep his tour card for nearly two decades and go low every so often. He’s well worth the play with the prospect of such a great return.

Tony Finau (28-1)

Tony Finau is quite comfortable at Colonial. In seven starts, the 33-year-old has yet to miss a cut or finish worse than T34. He posted an opening round 64 here just four years ago. The man they affectionately call “Big Tone” has the game to go low here.

How can you not back a golfer who has the history here, is fifth in SG: APP (Shots Gained Approach), third in Birdie Average and leads the Tour in Scrambling from the Fringe? The Utah native has all the metrics in his favor, a solid course history and a game that just seems to be getting better with age. Fire away on Finau.

More 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Advice

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