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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Head-to-Head Picks: Emiliano Grillo/Denny McCarthy

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Now that the second major of the 2023 PGA Tour season is in the books, we turn our attention to Colonial Country Club and the Charles Schwab Challenge. The par 70, 7.209 yard layout is the Tour’s longest running co-sponsored event still held at the original venue in Fort Worth, Texas. That means there is plenty of course history for the field that we can use to find some great value when deciding who to back this week.

The weather shouldn’t be much of a factor this week, as high temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80’s with single digit winds, which is a bit unusual for this tournament, and little to no precipitation during tournament play. There is some rain expected on Wednesday, which should provide a soft layout to start the tournament before the grounds dry out over the weekend. Golfers should take advantage of the soft conditions, and fire away at pins early in the tournament.

But what type of player find success here? Tour legend Ben Hogan, who won this tournament four of the first seven years it was contested, once said about Colonial that “”A straight ball will get you in more trouble at Colonial than any course I know.” With that in mind, we’ll be looking to back players who  are known for shaping their ball flight.

At first glance there are several very tasty matchups that provide great value, but we are going to narrow that down to the best plays for Thursday’s action.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Emiliano Grillo over Denny McCarthy (+100)

2016 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Emiliano Grillo always seems to make the weekend in non-majors. One of the more consistent players on tour, the Argentinian has posted sub-70 scores in ten of his last 12 competitive rounds if you overlook last weeks MC at the PGA Championship. Grillo is 6th on tour in Total Driving Efficiency and has four top 25 finishes in seven starts at Colonial. It could have been five if not for a final round 78 in last year’s edition. McCarthy is having a solid year. He ranks inside the top 10 in Scrambling from 20 yards and in, and Putting Inside 10 Feet, which has resulted in the University of Virginia product sitting at 45th in the current FedEx standings. But Colonial has not been kind to the Maryland native. In four starts here, he has finished no better than T27 and missed the cut twice. At even money, Grillo is a heavy lean.

More 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Advice

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