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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The golf world has blessed us with some remarkable storylines this season. My eyes still burn from last weekend. It might be the chlorine from swimming or an alarming lack of REM sleep, but it also might simply be my initiation into becoming a Blockhead.

Michael Block captured the hearts of everyone at Oak Hill with his humility during the greatest moment of his life. Brooks Koepka was incredible in his third PGA Championship victory and fifth Major, but largely took a back seat to the 46-year-old club professional’s heroics in the news cycle.

Despite not betting on Koepka (or Block, for that matter), Oak Hill was fruitful for our betting slips. Cameron Smith’s top 10 paid at +320, while my northern California homie Kurt Kitayama gave us a sweet +600 win for finishing top 20. He finished tied for fourth place, so a top-10 or top-5 bet would have been even sweeter. Kitayama’s Sunday 65 was celebrated with a raspy refrain. My other NorCal compadre, Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez, won via TKO for his fourth-consecutive victory in the UFC middleweight division. My voice is thoroughly shot.

In the Major Championship rain shadow looms an invitational tournament at another historic venue. The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, is a Tour relic. Colonial is notorious for celebrating the best stories in golf, including a pioneering invitation for Annika Sorenstam to compete in 2003. A teary-eyed Block was invited to Colonial via telephone mere minutes after his riveting par save on 18 at Oak Hill. The fairytale lives on.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds, Picks & Predictions

Betting the Charles Schwab Challenge will be a challenge. Colonial Country Club is a golf course that hasn’t really held up to the test of time and technology on the PGA Tour. The par-70 track is only about 7,200 yards. Its defense has historically been narrower, tree-lined fairways. In recent years, the athletes have largely been able to beat par with towering tee shots with short to mid-iron approaches.

The key to victory here is still heavily dependent on driving accuracy, with par-4 scoring and approach proximity from 175-200 yards sprinkled in. I will also push some weight onto birdie-or-better percentage (BOB%) and scrambling. Players caught up in the four-day grind of the PGA last week will also get a little bit of a downgrade. Let’s tee off.

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tony Finau (Outright +1400 [1u]; Top-5 +330 [1u])

The trick to winning at Colonial is the ability to overpower the golf course with accuracy. One of the longest straight-ball hitters in the world is Tony Finau, who just finished in the top 5 of this event last season. The conditions weren’t very favorable last year, which caused havoc in the winning score. If this turns into a birdie fest, I can’t think of anyone outside of outright favorite Scottie Scheffler who can hang with Finau.

Collin Morikawa (Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-10 +165 [1u])

We haven’t heard much about Collin Morikawa this season. He isn’t playing poorly but also isn’t winning any tournaments either. Colonial sets up extremely well for his towering left-to-right shot shape and pinpoint accuracy with his irons. Contrary to Finau, I prefer Morikawa if the conditions are tougher like they were last year.

Tommy Fleetwood (Outright +2500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +280 [1u])

The easygoing Englishman Tommy Fleetwood is on a heater these days. He has three top-10 finishes this season, and only one missed cut. Fleetwood is top 10 on Tour in Strokes Gained: From Tee to Green (SG: T2G), including fourth in around the green metrics. His top-5 finishes at the Wells Fargo and Valspar are both very favorable for the setup at Colonial, especially if the Texas winds pick up.

Eric Cole (Outright +8000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +280 [0.5u])

Except for a missed cut at the Wells Fargo, Eric Cole has far exceeded expectations over the last six weeks. This includes a 15th-place finish at last week’s grueling PGA Championship. Cole also finished fifth at the Mexico Open and 23rd at the Byron Nelson. Even though the weakness of his game is certainly off the tee, he has been excellent everywhere else. Cole ranks 31st in Total Strokes Gained this season, which lines up well with his stellar scoring average. At 80-1, I like the idea of betting on a golfer who can score well with an immaculate short game.

Carson Young (Outright +20000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +500 [0.5u])

We’ve all checked the leaderboard and saw “C. Young” near the top every couple of weeks and assumed it was Cameron Young. Quite often, it has actually been Carson Young. Carson Young is quietly having a great season on Tour and recently qualified for the US Open with rounds of 62 and 63. His two main strengths are accuracy off the tee and proximity in the key yardage range at Colonial. He also sports a ridiculous streak of 31 consecutive fairways hit and shot a 63 in the third round of the Byron Nelson. He finished 14th at that event and figures to be in the mix again this week at a bargain basement wager price.

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