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2023 Coca-Cola 600: NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Picks & Predictions

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What’s perhaps the best four-day stretch of the year is upon us. Blue cans of Busch Light, red flames from a bonfire and white flowers lying on the graves of those who lost their lives, keeping our great country free.

This is Memorial Day Weekend!

It all comes to a head for race fans on Sunday, as we have an all-day affair. It begins shortly after we wake with the 2023 Monaco Grand Prix, the crown jewel of the Formula 1 circuit. Not long after lunchtime, the stage is set for IndyCar as they host their Super Bowl, the Indianapolis 500.

NASCAR then serves up our nightcap, hosting the longest race of the year, the Coca-Cola 600, from Charlotte, N.C. – the home of stock car racing’s premiere series.

It’s just what the slightly-degenerate doctor ordered. We hit big last weekend at North Wilkesboro, N.C., cashing in a Josh Berry (+400) outright ticket in the NASCAR All-Star Open and the Kyle Larson (+650) outright in the NASAR All-Star Race.

That means we’re laying coins across all three circuits. But before we get to the plays for Sunday night, here are the NASCAR data sets I took into account when wagering:

  • 2023 Las Vegas (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
  • 2023 Kansas (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
  • 2022 Charlotte (finishes, total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & green-flag speed*)
  • Driver track history
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

With the stage set and coolers filled, let’s pop the top on our best bets for the 2023 Coca-Cola 600.

2023 Coca-Cola 600: NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 5: Martin Truex Jr. (+125 via Barstool Sportsbook)

Martin Truex Jr. and the No. 19 team seemed to have figured something out. They won Dover, led 79 laps at Kansas and dominated Darlington early, leading 145 laps.

The Bass-Pro-backed team is top-three in combined total speed rankings at Las Vegas and Kansas, our two comp tracks. Additionally, Truex Jr. has been No. 1 in total speed rankings across all high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since the beginning of 2022. The New Jersey native has a 19% T5 rating and a 42% T10 rating at Charlotte, giving me confidence come Sunday.

Top 10: Harrison Burton (+1800 via Ceasars Sportsbook)

Speaking of figuring something out, after qualifying well and having a top-10 car all day long, Harrison Burton finished sixth at Darlington. It was a much-needed performance from the 22-year-old following a dismal start to the season.

Burton finished 11th in this race last year. While he didn’t have the best speed, he got faster as the race progressed. The sample size is small, but he also has track time at Charlotte in the Xfinity Series. In his two lower-series starts since 2020, Burton scored a T10 in both, including a third-place finish his last time out.

For the price of hitting a sizeable outright, I’ll take this long shot on Burton, hoping he can win the war of attrition and find himself in the top 10 after 600 miles.

Special: Ford to Win (+525 via Ceasars Sportsbook)

After fading Ford for the last few weeks, I’m backing the Ponys, as this number is just far too big with their stable of drivers. Fords usually come to play when the stage is biggest, and there’s no bigger stage than the Coca-Cola 600. Here are the drivers that could actually win to cash this ticket:

  • No. 2 Austin Cindric | In a top Penske car, but amid a terrible season
  • No. 4 Kevin Harvick | Three wins and four runner-up finishes here
  • No. 6 Brad Keselowski | Two-time winner with a 43.5 T10 rate
  • No. 10 Aric Almirola | Better at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks than given credit for
  • No. 12 Ryan Blaney | Seventh-best total speed ranking at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since 2022
  • No. 14 Chase Briscoe | Sixth-best average finish (13.5) at Charlotte among active drivers
  • No. 17 Chris Buescher | 30% T10 rate here
  • No. 21 Harrison Burton | See above
  • No. 22 Joey Logano | Fourth-best average finish (12.8) at Charlotte among active drivers
  • No. 34 Michael McDowell | Finished eighth in this race last year
  • No. 38 Zane Smith | Two T5s in his last three Truck Series races at Charlotte
  • No. 41 Ryan Preece | There are worse drivers in worse equipment

Other Bets on My Card:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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