2023 College World Series Omaha Odds, Picks & Predictions
Well, team, we had another incredible weekend. We picked six of the eight finalists for Omaha and just missed out on Texas completing our parlay. Texas disappointed us on several levels. We had our parlay last week and our original parlay from before the entire tournament started, which paid +4370. Alas, our favorite play of the week, Oral Roberts, continues their magic right into Omaha.
Here is our recap from the very beginning.
2023 College Baseball: Omaha Picks
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
Original Omaha Teams:
- Wake Forest (-145): Win
- Texas (+320): So close
- LSU (-110): Win
- Tennessee (+230): Win
- Virginia (+210): Win
- Campbell (+600): Yikes
- Dallas Baptist (+500): Loss
- Iowa (+550): Loss
If you bet to win $100 on each of those teams, you would be up $240 and realistically are one pop-up away in the Texas game from a solid profit.
Super Regionals Picks:
- Texas (-105): Loss
- LSU (-235): Win
- Oral Roberts (+135): Win
- TCU (-185): Win
- Virginia (-195): Win
- South Carolina (+110): Loss
- Tennessee (-165)
- Wake Forest (odds not available)
If you bet to win $100 on each 0f these teams, you would be up $330, and again Texas would have made that even more if not for the aforementioned pop-up fiasco. Let’s dive into the incredible eight teams that make up the College World Series!!!
Glossary:
K%: Strikeout percentage
BB%: Walk percentage
ISO: Isolated Power, extra-base hits only. SLG-AVG=ISO
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play. This excludes strikeouts, walks, and home runs because they are not technically hit into play and are affected by the defense. This is viewed as a lucky statistic.
wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus. This statistic is measured on a scale of 100. 100 being average. If a team has a 130 wRC+, they are 30 percent better than the average team.
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
LD%: Percentage of balls in play that are line drives.
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Wake Forest Bracket
Wake Forest's CWS Profile:
Off K%: 40th
Off BB%: 2nd
ISO: 9th
BABIP: 121st
wRC+: 5th
GB%: 20th
LD%: 135th
Off HR/FB%: 20th
Pitching
BB%: 3rd
K%: 1st
FIP: 1st
LOB%: 1st
GB%: 13th
LD%: 86th
HR/FB%: 240th
Stanford's CWS Profile:
Off K%: 54th
Off BB%: 170th
ISO: 15th
BABIP: 42nd
wRC+: 16th
GB%: 229th
LD%: 129th
Off HR/FB%: 14th
Pitching
BB%: 220th
K%: 16th
FIP: 96th
LOB%: 131st
GB%: 136th
LD%: 158th
HR/FB%: 247th
LSU's CWS Profile:
Off K%: 94th
Off BB%: 15th
ISO: 6th
BABIP: 57th
wRC+: 4th
GB%: 25th
LD%: 221st
Off HR/FB%: 17th
Pitching
BB%: 131st
K%: 3rd
FIP: 9th
LOB%: 70th
GB%: 265th
LD%: 1st
HR/FB%: 73rd
Tennessee's CWS Profile:
Off K%: 245th
Off BB%: 10th
ISO: 4th
BABIP: 128th
wRC+: 14th
GB%: 64th
LD%: 262nd
Off HR/FB%: 4th
Pitching
BB%: 6th
K%: 2nd
FIP: 4th
LOB%: 16th
GB%: 102nd
LD%: 3rd
HR/FB%: 264th
This is an absolutely stacked side of the bracket. All four teams rank top 30 in ISO, wRC+, Off HR/FB%, and Pitching K%. There are a couple of statistics that stand out to me. Stanford is the only team not to rank top 20 in Off BB% (170th). Three of the four teams rank top 10 in FIP (Stanford ranks 96th). Wake Forest, LSU, and Tennessee are head and shoulders above Stanford in this bracket. Wake Forest ranks top 20 in Off BB%, ISO, wRC+, Off GB%, Off HR/FB%, Pitching BB%, Pitching K%, FIP, LOB%, and Pitching GB%. Wake Forest is easily the best team in Omaha, as they have been all year. I see them making the Finals.
Florida’s Bracket
Florida's CWS Profile:
Off K%: 142nd
Off BB%: 128th
ISO: 2nd
BABIP: 169th
wRC+: 18th
GB%: 5th
LD%: 12th
Off HR/FB%: 6th
Pitching
BB%: 167th
K%: 7th
FIP: 38th
LOB%: 57th
GB%: 85th
LD%: 267th
HR/FB%: 268th
Virginia's CWS Profile:
Off K%: 8th
Off BB%: 89th
ISO: 69th
BABIP: 4th
wRC+: 7th
GB%: 203rd
LD%: 65th
Off HR/FB%: 109th
Pitching
BB%: 12th
K%: 13th
FIP: 19th
LOB%: 10th
GB%: 139th
LD%: 26th
HR/FB%: 189th
TCU's CWS Profile
Off K%: 129th
Off BB%: 77th
ISO: 104th
BABIP: 70th
wRC+: 69th
GB%: 262nd
LD%: 164th
Off HR/FB%: 75th
Pitching
BB%: 124th
K%: 85th
FIP: 72nd
LOB%: 82nd
GB%: 30th
LD%: 100th
HR/FB%: 149th
Oral Roberts CWS Profile:
Off K%: 33rd
Off BB%: 108th
ISO: 39th
BABIP: 25th
wRC+: 19th
GB%: 44th
LD%: 140th
Off HR/FB%: 77th
Pitching
BB%: 25th
K%: 28th
FIP: 32nd
LOB%: 2nd
GB%: 132nd
LD%: 20th
HR/FB%: 131st
This bracket is wide-open, in my opinion. You have four vastly different teams with different strengths and weaknesses. Let’s list what stands out amongst two (1) seeds and two cinderellas.
- Virginia and Oral Roberts Top 35 in Off K%. Florida 142nd and TCU 129th
- Florida is the only team top 30 in ISO (2nd)
- Virginia (4th) and Oral Roberts (25th) in BABIP
- TCU (69th) is the only team that is not in the Top 20 in wRC+
- Florida (6th) in Off HR/FB% other three teams are 75th or worse
- TCU is the only team not in the Top 30 in either Pitching BB% or Pitching K%
- TCU (72nd) is the only team not in the Top 40 in FIP
- Florida (268th) is the only team in the Bottom 40 in Pitching HR/FB%
Right off the bat, I do not see TCU making it to the Finals. They have had a very fortuitous path and have taken advantage of that the entire way. They just do not match up well against these other three teams, and honestly can see them losing their first matchup to Oral Roberts. Oral Roberts has probably the most interesting profile as they rank Top 35 in Off K%, wRC+, Pitching BB%, Pitching K%, FIP, LOB%, and Pitching LD%. In my opinion, their biggest drawback is their high ranking in BABIP (25th), but it’s counteracted by their plate discipline. Florida, on the other hand, is dependent upon their elite power numbers (2nd in ISO and 6th in HR/FB%). Their pitching staff is not abysmal, but it does not stack up against Oral Roberts and Virginia. If Florida’s power numbers are limited, I do not think they will be able to advance. I’m taking Oral Roberts to make it to the Finals but will have several combo picks to display value.
The Bets
Winner:
-
- Oral Roberts (+3000)
Wake Forest is easily the best team left, but I do not see much value in +240. I would rather pair them with either Virginia or Oral Roberts in the Final. Obviously, Oral Roberts is a pick that will be looked at as just cheering for the underdog, but in reality, their advanced statistic profile is better than several teams in Omaha, and they are balanced in key categories; +3000 is way too much value.
Thank you for coming on this journey through the tournament, and if you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions on the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!
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