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2023 Cook Out 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions

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I covered my first race as credentialed media last weekend at Pocono, and, damn, was it nerve-wracking at first.

Asking questions to people you grew up watching – whether Frankie Muniz on the big screen or Kevin Harvick on the track – proved initially difficult. Knowing what you want to say in your mind versus actually saying it are two very different things.

However, as the weekend progressed, so did my confidence in my interviewing abilities and photography skills to shoot cars as they passed by lightning fast. It was a subtle reminder that practice makes perfect – a lesson that likely transfers as drivers return to Richmond Raceway for the second time this season.

High tire wear also returns to this shorter flat track amid one of the most action-packed stretches of recent stock car racing history. Here are the data sets we’re pulling as NASCAR rolls into the state for lovers:

  • 2023 Richmond I (finishes, green flag speed*, speed late in a run* & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 New Hampshire (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Gateway (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Phoenix (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Driver track history
  • Track trends
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

With the stage set to see MPHs climb in the RVA, let’s get to our best bets for the Cook Out 400 at Richmond:

2023 Cook Out 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Fastest Qualifier: William Byron (+650 via Caesars Sportsbook)

We love a good Saturday sweat. And so does William Byron, apparently, as the No. 24 car cashed our pole position prop last week at Pocono. That makes his third of the year and gives him the third-best average starting position among active drivers this season (10.0). At Richmond specifically, he is also third among active drivers in average starting position (9.8).

In addition, Byron had the No. 1 total speed ranking at Richmond I and has the No. 1 total speed ranking across all shorter flat tracks this season. We’re backing Byron to get that top starting position and pit stall again this weekend.

Top 10: Ty Gibbs (+175 via Barstool Sportsbook)

After a mid-rookie season slump, Ty Gibbs appears to be rounding back into form. He had his best Cup Series finish to date (fifth) at Pocono last week. To get this fair of a number on a driver who finished P9 in the spring feels great.

Though his finishes at our comp tracks haven’t been tremendous, he hasn’t had a total speed ranking worse than 21st at any of them, including being the 11th fastest at Richmond. Gibbs appears to be a streaky driver after he reeled off four straight T10s earlier this season. I’ll hammer down that he goes back-to-back T10s here at Richmond this week.

Matchup: Martin Truex Jr. (-135) vs. Christopher Bell (+105) via Barstool Sportsbook

I’m always looking for a way to get invested with Martin Truex Jr. With tough-to-swallow lines across the board, we’ll take to the matchup market to back him over teammate Christopher Bell. Truex Jr. has been one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR, finishing with a T5 in six of his last eight races. In addition, he had a top-four total speed ranking last time at Richmond and has had top-six speed across all shorter flat tracks this season.

While Bell has similar advanced metrics at Richmond and comp tracks this season, he has been hard to trust lately. The No. 20 team has an average finish of 17.7 over his last 10 races. And unlike Truex Jr., Bell hasn’t scored a T5 since his win at Bristol Dirt on April 9.

This wager is about recent form, and Truex Jr. has it, while Bell doesn’t.

Other Bets on My Card:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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