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2023 Cook Out Southern 500: NASCAR at Darlington Speedway Odds, Picks & Predictions

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It only makes sense that if a long weekend kicks off the summer, another should close it.

However, the holiday weekends around Memorial Day and Labor Day couldn’t feel more different. Sure, there’s hopefully a fair amount of Buch Lights being drunk on both, but with a very different vibe. The nights are cooler now - the air more crisp. Adult conversations center around kids heading back to school and extracurricular obligations rather than three months away from them.

Racing is also still here, but it now takes a back seat to the football season rather than headlines the weekend. That’s OK, though. NASCAR has always been a niche sport, and we degenerate gamblers wear that like a f***in’ badge of honor.

The Cup Series again heads towards Darlington, this time for the Cook Out Southern 500 and the first round of the playoffs. The tension builds for 16 drivers, while the rest of the 36-car field has nothing left to lose.

The gloves are off, so let’s set the stage with our data sets for the Sunday night affair:

  • 2023 Darlington (finishes, green flag speed,* total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
  • High-tire wear intermediate comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
    • 2023 Auto Club
  • High-speed intermediate comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
    • 2023 Las Vegas
    • 2023 Dover
    • 2023 Kansas
    • 2023 Charlotte
    • 2023 Nashville
    • 2023 Michigan
  • Track & first-round of the playoffs trends
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

The worst finish ever in the opening NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race from the eventual champion was 12th by Jimmie Johnson in 2016. That means we’re keying in on the cream of the crop and backing the high-profile drivers, even if the odds are shorter than usual.

Here are our best bets for the Cook Out Southern 500:

2023 Cook Out Southern 500: NASCAR at Darlington Speedway Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u.

Top 3: Martin Truex Jr. (+150 via Caesars Sportsbook)

It’s been a minute since we backed NASCAR’s regular season champion this much. However, now’s the time for Martin Truex Jr. to show up. He’s won the first race of the playoffs three times before. The No. 19 also dominated the spring race, registering the fastest lap, most leaps led (145) and second-best total speed ranking.

In addition, Truex Jr. is No. 1 in the total speed rankings this year at the high-speed intermediates and No. 3 at high tire-wear tracks since 2022. It comes together for a race that is his to lose. We’re just going to back that even if he does, he finishes at least P3.

Top 5: Denny Hamlin (+135 via BetRivers Sportsbook)

Another bet, another opportunity to back Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR). Denny Hamlin is No. 1 among active drivers in Darlington wins (four) and average finish (7.7). His team totally missed the setup in the spring, and he still finished 12th.

Considering that Hamlin is top three in the total speed rankings this year at the high-speed intermediates and top six at high tire-wear tracks since 2022, I’ll back the No. 11 to have a strong day at Darlington.

Top 10: Bubba Wallace (+110 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Now’s the time for Bubba Wallace to rise to the occasion as he settles into his first appearance in the playoffs. There’s no better place to kick the postseason off than at Darlington, where Wallace finished fifth in the spring. He slightly outperformed his ninth-best total speed ranking in May, but his fifth-fastest late-run speed got him there.

Being that Wallace has two straight T10s at Darlington - he finished P9 in last year’s Southern 500 - finding plus money to do it again is what us betting pundits call “value.”

Other Bets on My Card:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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