2023 Genesis Invitational Best Bets & Picks

The world’s top golfers had already committed to competing in The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club, but last Friday, we learned that the sport’s biggest celebrity would also be competing. The tournament’s host, Tiger Woods, will start on the PGA TOUR for the first time since last July.

The 82-time PGA TOUR champion will serve as the head of a strong field vying for 550 FedEx Cup points. The event this week already had 23 of the top 25 players in the world commit, so he won’t be the only golf celeb there. We have a field list that is overflowing, with 130 players scheduled as of the time of writing, much like last week. Let’s dive into this exciting event from top to bottom.

2023 Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Previous Winners of the Genesis Invitational

• • 2022: Joaquin Niemann
  • 2021: Max Homas
  • 2020: Adam Scott

Course Preview: Riviera Country Club

This event will once again be held at the Riviera Country Club. Since 1973, it has served as the host, with a few breaks along the way (1983 was held at Rancho Municipal GC, and 1998 was played at Valencia CC). The 1920s layout of this George Thomas design was well accepted by the golf architecture community and has turned into one of the most coveted in the world.

Golfers find themselves attacking off the tee with little concern for missing the fairway. Even though this facility has one of the lowest fairway-hit rates on the TOUR, it doesn’t mean that players won’t miss fairways because the consequences are less severe than they would be at a more typical location on Tour.

The difficulty of the greens increases the significance of approach play. When playing on uneven poa annua greens, you should try to avoid short sides as much as possible and take fewer five-footers for par. At Riviera, even the best putters can’t count on them to routinely fall.

Relevant Betting Stats

• • Driving Distance
  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Putting

2023 Genesis Invitational Best Bets & Picks

Xander Schauffele (+1600 Outright [1u]; +350 Top-5 [1u])

It was great to see Xander Schauffele’s well-rounded game come together last week in Phoenix. His top-10 finish came as a result of some incredible putting, especially from distance. Riviera will demand extreme care on and around the greens, along with solid ball striking from tee to green. With all of the steam deservedly going to Scheffler and Thomas, I will be looking for a similarly hot player to take home the Genesis with better odds.

Patrick Cantlay (+2200 Outright [1u]; +500 Top-5 [1u]; +230 Top-10 [1u])

The runaway favorite in my model this week is the rock-solid Patrick Cantlay. He seemingly has no weaknesses, finding himself no worse than 16th in the field in every metric in my model. His strengths were not on full display last week at the WM Phoenix Open, but the winner at Riviera will have to pass the short-game test with flying colors. I have no doubt that Mr. Ice Water in his veins will come through with a strong showing.

Sam Burns (+3500 Outright [0.5u])

How quiet is this play? The TV broadcast refused to show certain golfers’ play over the weekend, especially during Sunday’s final round. Sam Burns was stellar in Scottsdale and finished tied for sixth place, despite not receiving any real airtime on Sunday. His game suits Riviera extremely well in that he can make birdies in bunches through tough stretches.

Jason Day (+4000 Outright [0.5u]; +360 Top-10 [0.5u])

It is wonderful to see the Australian phenom back healthy again. Jason Day is one of my favorite golfers to watch, and his recent form is reminiscent of his glory days. Day is incredible from tee to green, and a wizard around the green. 40-1 for a golfer playing this well in 2023 is a huge edge. His odds to make the top-10 are as much of a lock as I found this week.

Keegan Bradley (+6000 Outright [0.5u])

Much like Day, Keegan Bradley has us partying like it’s 10 years ago. He did finish as runner-up here in 2012 but has scuffled around in recent years. His 2023 form has been very strong. He lost 30 pounds in the offseason and looks laser-focused. Bradley is a birdie machine that can compete with anyone in the world when he is on his game. This is an amazing line at 60-1.

S.H. Kim (+35000 Outright [0.25u]; +2000 Top-10 [0.5u]; +750 Top-20 [0.75u])

Although I am playing conservatively with my bankroll this week, I do want to take some selective shots at soft lines. S.H. Kim is an unsung talent from South Korea and is getting absolutely no respect from Vegas yet this season. Kim is 36th on the PGA Tour in Total Strokes Gained, including 12th in Strokes Gained Putting.

2023 The Genesis Invitational: Best Longshot Picks & Predictions

These plays are 0.2u and 0.1u, or 0.2% and 0.1% of your betting bankroll.

Cameron Young (+3500 via DraftKings Sportsbook): 0.2u

The first golfer we’re targeting this week is Cameron Young, who sits at 35/1. The 2021-22 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year winner is off to yet another strong start this season, making all five of his cuts.

Of those five made cuts, Young boasts three top-26 finishes, including his T13 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which featured a field with similar strength to this weekend. A big part of Young’s success is due to his excellent ability out of the tee box.

On TOUR this season, Young ranks eighth in Driving Distance and 24th in SG: Off the Tee. Also strong in his iron/wedge game, Young ranks 34th this season in SG: Approach the Green.

There is no reason to believe Young cannot utilize this strong play to post a good result this week, especially because he finished second at this tournament last year. At 35/1, it is worth taking a shot on the New York native to redeem himself this year.

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