2023 Genesis Invitational Odds, Picks & Predictions
Last week at the WM Phoenix Open, my picks were a big swing and miss. Although it is the nature of this volatile game, the process could not foresee the sudden return to elite form by Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas.
Sungjae Im was the strongest of the picks but simply didn’t have enough steam to catch Scottie. Collin Morikawa looked abysmal, completely engulfed by the pressure of nearly a million rowdy fans. The model favorite, Tom Kim, played well for a good while. He did not, however, convert on enough birdies to hang close on the weekend.
From a raucous open format, we move to another PGA Tour staple invitational event. The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country club in Pacific Palisades, Calif., will feature many of the same elite-level golfers as the elevated event last week but in a more condensed 132-player field. The Genesis is the second-consecutive “elevated†event and sports a hefty $20 million purse. The event has benefitted the Tiger Woods Foundation for many years now, but the golf icon has yet to win this tournament. Tiger announced he will compete this week, throwing the golf community back into a frenzied excitement.
The par-71 track stretches to a modest 7,300 yards and favors players who can combine great tee shots with clutch putting. My statistical model will be weighted to address the strengths of past winners, along with those in the field with the strongest recent form.
Here are the golfers I will be wagering to have success this week at Riviera.
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2023 Genesis Invitational Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Xander Schauffele (+1600 Outright [1u]; +350 Top-5 [1u])
It was great to see Xander Schauffele’s well-rounded game come together last week in Phoenix. His top-10 finish came as a result of some incredible putting, especially from distance. Riviera will demand extreme care on and around the greens, along with solid ball striking from tee to green. With all of the steam deservedly going to Scheffler and Thomas, I will be looking for a similarly hot player to take home the Genesis with better odds.
Patrick Cantlay (+2200 Outright [1u]; +500 Top-5 [1u]; +230 Top-10 [1u])
The runaway favorite in my model this week is the rock-solid Patrick Cantlay. He seemingly has no weaknesses, finding himself no worse than 16th in the field in every metric in my model. His strengths were not on full display last week at the WM Phoenix Open, but the winner at Riviera will have to pass the short-game test with flying colors. I have no doubt that Mr. Ice Water in his veins will come through with a strong showing.
Sam Burns (+3500 Outright [0.5u])
How quiet is this play? The TV broadcast refused to show certain golfers’ play over the weekend, especially during Sunday’s final round. Sam Burns was stellar in Scottsdale and finished tied for sixth place, despite not receiving any real airtime on Sunday. His game suits Riviera extremely well in that he can make birdies in bunches through tough stretches.
Jason Day (+4000 Outright [0.5u]; +360 Top-10 [0.5u])
It is wonderful to see the Australian phenom back healthy again. Jason Day is one of my favorite golfers to watch, and his recent form is reminiscent of his glory days. Day is incredible from tee to green, and a wizard around the green. 40-1 for a golfer playing this well in 2023 is a huge edge. His odds to make the top-10 are as much of a lock as I found this week.
Keegan Bradley (+6000 Outright [0.5u])
Much like Day, Keegan Bradley has us partying like it’s 10 years ago. He did finish as runner-up here in 2012 but has scuffled around in recent years. His 2023 form has been very strong. He lost 30 pounds in the offseason and looks laser-focused. Bradley is a birdie machine that can compete with anyone in the world when he is on his game. This is an amazing line at 60-1.
S.H. Kim (+35000 Outright [0.25u]; +2000 Top-10 [0.5u]; +750 Top-20 [0.75u])
Although I am playing conservatively with my bankroll this week, I do want to take some selective shots at soft lines. S.H. Kim is an unsung talent from South Korea and is getting absolutely no respect from Vegas yet this season. Kim is 36th on the PGA Tour in Total Strokes Gained, including 12th in Strokes Gained Putting.
Total Units Played: 8.5
Potential Units: 221.2
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