2023 Go Bowling at The Glen: NASCAR at Watkins Glen Odds, Picks & Predictions

I don’t care who you are or what you’re doing; cold streaks are a part of life. It happens to NASCAR drivers and also those of us who bet on the sport. 

After a hot start to the season – hitting an outright in nearly half of the first 18 races – we’ve stalled. Starting with Chicago Street it’s been an up-and-down affair. Until lately, where’s it’s just been down.

However, the only way to break a cold streak is just to keep firing up that car, or in this case, a betting card. I’m hoping NASCAR’s next stop, Watkins Glen International Raceway, just two-and-a-half hours north of my hometown, can cure this hangover. 

And before we dive head-first into the deep blue waters of nearby Seneca Lake, we consult our data sets for yet another road course:

• 2022 Watkins Glen (finishes & total speed rankings*, green flag speed* & speed late in a run*)
• Road Courses Since 2022 (finishes & total speed rankings*)
• 2023 Road Courses (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Circuit of the Americas (COTA)
  • Sonoma
  • Chicago Street Race
  • Indianapolis Road Course
• Driver track history
• Track trends
• Recent performance & current standing

*via ifantasyrace.com

Practice and qualifying will be crucial, as the winner has come from the pole 26% of the time and the top-five drivers on the grid 67% of the time. So, I highly recommend allocating some units following Saturday’s runs.

However, in the meantime, here are my best pre-practice and qualifying bets as the NASCAR Go Bowling at The Glen:

2023 Go Bowling at The Glen: NASCAR at Watkins Glen Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 5: Joey Logano (+600 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Joey Logano stuck out as one of the most mispriced drivers across sportsbooks. The driver of the No. 22 is sneaky good at Watkins Glen, totaling three Xfinity Series wins, one Cup Series win and a 31% T5 rate. Last season, Logano finished third here and ranked top-four in advanced metrics (total speed rankings, green flag speed and speed late in a run).

While Logano hasn’t been great on road courses this season, he was strong at Sonoma, one of the other original NASCAR road courses. He sat top eight in the total speed rankings and finished third that day. With Watkins Glen being another of the longest-tenured road courses in NASCAR, I expect Logano to rely on his veteran experience to wheel him to another top-five day.

Top 10: Michael McDowell (-160 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Micahel McDowell enters the Glen hot off his dominating victory at Indianapolis. He now sits second in total speed rankings, second in green flag speed and third in speed late in a run at road courses since 2022.

This year, specifically, McDowell is second in total speed rankings at road courses, and it’s not particularly close. The Front Row Motorsports driver got his first-career T10 here last season, finishing sixth. With McDowell having the second-best total speed rankings that day, I see no reason why he won’t be in contention come this Sunday.

Matchup: Joey Logano (-130) vs. Kevin Harvick (-105) via Barstool Sportsbook | 2u

If there’s one spot to fade Kevin Harvick right now, it’s at road courses. The veteran sits 26th in the total speed rankings at road courses this season and has yet to score a T10. Last season at the Glen, Harvick had a troubling 21st total speed ranking and – even worse – 27th green flag speed.

The driver of the No. 4 car has not adapted well to road courses in the Next-Gen era, and his P23 last week shows just that. I’ll fade him this week against Logano, who highlights my pre-practice and qualifying card.

Other Bets on My Card:

• Joey Logano Outright (+5000 via Barstool Sportsbook)
• Michael McDowell Outright (+1200 via Caesars Sportsbook) .25u
• Chase Elliott & Michael McDowell Both Finish Top 5 (+450 via Caesars Sportsbook) .5u

---