2023 Home Run Derby First-Round Matchups: Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Trenton Pruitt |
Jul 10, 2023

The All-Star Break is here and the events are fruitful throughout the week. Between the Future Stars Game, the Home Run Derby, and the All-Star game itself, it should hardly be considered a break.

Below I'll briefly break down the first-round matchups, touch on the odds, and lock in a bet for each battle.

As for how the seeding works, the top seeds are the players who had the most home runs through July 4th. The tiebreaker, which was used for Luis Robert Jr. and Pete Alonso, was who hit the most tanks since June 15th.

Home Run Derby First-Round Matchups & Picks

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

#1 Luis Robert Jr. (-215) vs. #8 Adley Rutschman (+175)

Luis Robert Jr. has come on strong after a pedestrian start to the year. As of this writing, he is tied for third in long balls with 26. Adley Rutschman is currently 88th in the Majors with just 11 home runs.

I don't even know how much I need to say about this matchup, I'm riding with Luis Robert Jr. to advance at -215. Of course, the Home Run Derby is different from your standard baseball game, but a few analytics that I think will carry over to HRD are how players compare in terms of flyball rate and ground ball rate.

Rutschman owns a 41.0% GB% and 35.7% FB% while Robert Jr. is 40.1% and 38.0% in those respective categories. It's not a huge disparity, but Robert Jr. has the edge in that he puts the ball in the air more often. He's better conditioned and has more homers on the year, so I'm rolling with the White Sox outfielder to advance.

Bet: Luis Robert Jr. To Advance (-215)

#4 Adolis Garcia (-140) vs. #5 Randy Arozarena (+115)

I'm going to keep with the chalk play in the four vs. five matchup that pits Adolis Garcia (23 HR) against Randy Arozarena (16 HR). Give me Garcia at -140.

As much as Arozarena loves stepping up in the spotlight, I think Garcia is just too powerful to lose this matchup. He comes in with an FB% of 47.0% while Arozarena is currently at 40.7%. It's apparent that launch angle is at the forefront of Garcia's game and I think we'll see that on display Monday night.

Bet: Adolis Garcia To Advance (-140)

#2 Pete Alonso (-170) vs. #7 Julio Rodriguez (+140)

This is a big-time matchup that carries some history with it from last year's HRD in Los Angeles. Julio Rodriguez defeated Pete Alonso in the semifinal round before he eventually went on to lose to Juan Soto in the finals. As for this year, Alonso enters with 26 home runs while Rodriguez has 13.

In addition to knocking off the two-time champion last year, Rodriguez will also get to hit in his home park. Now, how much of a factor is that when pulling 400-foot nukes that will clear the wall regardless of the park? It might not have a massive impact, but I think there's some weight to it considering J-Rod will have the comfort of his home batters box and a familiar batter's eye in center.

Pete Alonso obviously has the history to win since he's done it twice; however, I think it's worth a shot with the plus-money payout to play the hometown kid. Give me Rodriguez to advance.

Bet: Julio Rodriguez To Advance (+140)

#3 Mookie Betts (+170) vs. #6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-210)

I'm going with another upset in the Mookie Betts (25 HR) versus Vlad Guerrero Jr. (13 HR) first-round matchup. With how much of a competitor Mookie is, it's hard to pass up a +170 payout on him. This guy is just good at everything he does, from a silky smooth glove defensively to his prowess in the batter's box. His skill even extends to the extracurricular talent of being a great bowler.

This is a matchup where I can see stamina coming into play. While Vladdy has cut some weight and looks pretty good at his current stature, he's still a heftier guy overall. I think Betts has the conditioning to produce home run swings for days.

Not to mention, the overall statistic that Betts has nearly doubled Guerrero Jr. in home runs this year. He has really transformed into a slugger with the power surge this year and I simply think the +170 payout is too good to pass up.

Bet: Mookie Betts To Advance (+170)

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