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2023 John Deere Classic Bets: PGA Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The 2023 PGA Tour season has blurred by at speeds that beguile reason. We are merely weeks from The Open and the beginning of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Before we cross that bridge, however, we must pull into one of my absolute favorite events on the schedule.

The John Deere Classic is a tournament I have enjoyed since childhood. The moderately easy test of golf is tucked into the Illinois countryside near the Iowa border, smack dab in America’s heartland. The Quad Cities community adores this event and provides as much nurturing into their golf tournament as any other on Tour. Is it an elevated event or major? No, but it’s as vital to the golf landscape as any tournament in existence.

2023 John Deere Classic Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

The John Deere Classic isn’t wedged into a stuffy country club on the outskirts of a thriving metropolis. TPC Deere Run is a public course in Silvis, Illinois without so much as a hint of pretention. The par-71 track is an average-length 7,200 yards from the championship tees. Scoring is typically very good here, with the winning 72-hole total hovering around 20-under par on average.

As with any PGA Tour event, ball-striking is very important. One very important tidbit that goes directly into my weighted statistical model is the propensity for the JDC to favor good putters. Most of the champions here are known for strong putting. The top of the past leaderboards are flooded with the best putters on Tour. I won’t get cute. The correlation is overwhelming. Birdie or better percentage (BOB%) and bogey avoidance will also influence my player pool. Fire up your big green tractor (or riding mower) and let’s tee off.

Denny McCarthy (Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-5 +400 [1u])

I don’t love the odds here, but Denny McCarthy has been scaring enough leaderboards this season to warrant a strong outright bet. The Maryland native is fourth on Tour in strokes gained putting and has been stalking his first PGA Tour win for a couple of years now and this appears to be a place where that optimism is not misplaced.

Adam Hadwin (Outright +2800 [0.5u]; Top-10 +300 [1u])

Adam Hadwin is a Canadian entering the JDC in red-hot form. His wife might be the more hilarious social media figure, but Hadwin is on the precipice of driving me into hysterics with his strong play. The theme this week is the importance of making putts, and the native of Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan is up 18 spots to 27th on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting.

Eric Cole (Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +350 [1u])

I like hitching my wagon to guys who can go on an absolute birdie-making tirade on any course. This has been the season of Eric Cole. Where he has struggled off the tee this year, Cole has excelled in virtually every other category. The 17th-ranked putter on Tour is also 28th in BOB% and 19th in bogey avoidance. Cole is also a closer, coming in 10th in final round scoring average. I love how he fits this course and event. Cole is a very popular pick this week.

Taylor Montgomery (Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +600 [0.5u])

A much less popular choice this week is Taylor Montgomery. His early-season surge has retracted into a stretch of immense struggle. Montgomery’s difficulties, however, have not affected his putting one iota. He is the second-best putter on the planet and is among the best golfers in BOB%. Montgomery only needs an average ball-striking week to make some real noise at TPC Deere Run and his odds already reflect his poor form during the back half of the season.

Sam Ryder (Outright +10000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +360 [0.5u])

Carrying on with the putting barrage theme, Sam Ryder is sporting unreasonably soft odds. He is third in SG: Putting and is also a very strong approach player. He has gotten into trouble off the tee and around the green, but is still among the best scramblers in this field. Ryder is a huge sleeper in this event at these odds. Another consideration in this range is Justin Lower, who finished 8th last week at the Rocket Mortgage. Ryder is still the safer pick between the two.

S.Y. Noh (Outright +25000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +700 [0.25u])

Don’t look now, but Seung-Yul Noh has made six consecutive cuts entering the JDC and is among the best putters on the PGA Tour. Don’t invest too heavily on the journeyman pro from South Korea, but he’s a glaring play at such deep odds. Easy money on the top-20 bet at seven-to-one. I’d also put some coin on him making the cut again.

Total Units Played: 8.0

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