2023 John Deere Classic: PGA Head-to-Head Matchups Odds & Picks

While many of the top ranked golfers in the world are making their way over to England to prepare for the year’s final major in two weeks, the PGA Tour rolls on here at home with the John Deere Classic. Only one of the top 20 ranked golfers in the OWGR (Cameron Young) will tee it up Thursday at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. This is an important week for players with playoff aspirations. The top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings will make the playoffs a month from now, so this is an opportunity for those hovering around that number with the world’s best not in attendance.

TPC Deere Run will play to 7,289 yards and Par 71 this week. Shot making will be at a premium this week, as the course will penalize those who try to bomb it off the tee, so we’ll be looking to back players who are accurate off the tee, solid with their irons and have good approach numbers. Players who are putting well are also in the mix. Expect to see a lot of birdies, eagles and low scores once again. Let’s get to the picks.

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2023 John Deere Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Denny McCarthy over Russell Henley (-110)

Russell Henley isn’t a household name but if he ever got his putter working as well as the rest of his game, he would be. The 34 year-old has a win and two top-ten finishes this season, ranks 1st in Driving Accuracy and 10th in Proximity. The glaring hole in his game is on the green. Henley ranks 151st on Tour in SG: Putting.

Denny McCarthy on the other hand, is having a great year on the greens. The Maryland native ranks 4th in SG: Putting and 1st in SG: Putting Inside 10 Feet. The 30 year-old finished T6 here a year ago, and is in great form. McCarthy fired an opening round 60 last week, on his way to a T7 finish. TPC at Deere Run is exactly the type of course the University of Virginia product fares well on and he should finish ahead of Henley, and possibly be in contention to win Sunday. McCarthy is the pick.

Taylor Montgomery over Adam Svensson (+100)

Taylor Montgomery can putt. The UNLV alum ranks 2nd in SG: Putting and 27th in 3-Putt Avoidance. With four top-ten finishes this year, the 6th year pro sits 41st in the FedEx Cup Standings so he will be looking to move up the list this week to solidify his position for the playoffs. The big question mark with Montgomery is his iron play. The 28 year-old ranks a paltry 175th in SG: Approach To Green. If he can get his irons going like he did at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, he should have a solid week.

Adam Svennson caught lightning in a bottle early in the season at The RSM Classic, claiming the first win of his PGA Tour career, to punch his ticket to the Sentry Tournament of Champions next January. Lately though, the Canadian has struggles, missing three of his last five cuts and finishing no better than T40. Nothing about his numbers stands out either. Svensson ranks 56th in SG: Total and 87th in SG: Off The Tee. That’s more than enough to back Montgomery here.

Michael Kim over Sam Stevens (+100)

Sam Stevens had a solid spring, posting a T15 at The Puerto Rico Open and a pair of top fives after missing the cut at the Valero Texas Open. Outside of that stretch it has been a very mediocre year for the 26 year-old. Stevens ranks 145th in SG: Putting and 90th in SG: Approach To The Green. The Oklahoma State grad sits 58th in the FedEx Cup standings so he needs to find his game quick if he’s going to stay inside the top 70 to make the playoffs.

Michael Kim is a former champion here at the John Deere Classic. The former college player of the year at Cal, Kim has all the tools to be an elite professional. It’s his desire that is the question. This week is the perfect time for Kim to focus if he wants to make the playoffs. The South Korean born Kim sits 83rd in the FedEx Cup rankings so he needs a good showing here to move into the playoff field. He’s worth the even money price considering he has won here and has the motivation to play well.

Best of luck this week if you’re tailing! Let’s cash some tickets!